Global| Jan 24 2006Chain Store Sales Edged Up, With Gasoline Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales edged 0.3% higher last week following the sharp 1.4% drop during the prior period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The increase left sales in January 1.3% ahead of [...]
Chain store sales edged 0.3% higher last week following the sharp 1.4% drop during the prior period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
The increase left sales in January 1.3% ahead of December.
The leading indicator of chain store sales slipped 0.1% following two weeks of strong increase and the January average remained 1.2% ahead of December which rose 0.8%.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Redbook Research reported that chain store sales in January were 0.4% below (+3.6% y/y) December. The Redbook survey samples same-store sales at general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales measure revenue at stores open at least a year.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the y/y change in the Redbook tally of chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The latest store sales were accompanied by another rise in gasoline prices at the pump. Last week's two cent increase to an average $2.34 per gallon of regular unleaded followed a slight dip the prior week and pulled the January average to $2.31. In spot market trading yesterday gasoline fell three cents after a four cent rise on Friday, but declines early last week left the latest level two cents below last week's average.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 01/21/06 | 01/14/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 459.0 | 457.7 | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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