Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Sep 26 2006

Chain Store Sales Down Again. Gasoline Prices Still Falling

Summary

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported another drop in chain store sales last week. The 0.6% decline was the third drop in a as many weeks and left the average of sales in September 0.3% below August.


The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported another drop in chain store sales last week. The 0.6% decline was the third drop in a as many weeks and left the average of sales in September 0.3% below August. During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline. Last week, the retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline dropped another twelve cents w/w to an average $2.38 (-15.3% y/y), the lowest level since early March. In spot market trading yesterday, the NY harbor price for regular unleaded gasoline continued its recent decline and fell three cents from Friday to $1.49, versus an average $1.53 last week.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS gave back nearly all of the prior period's increase with a 0.6% decline last week (+0.5% y/y).

The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available here.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 09/23/06 09/16/06 Y/Y 2005 2004 2003
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 464.2 466.8 4.2% 3.6% 4.7% 2.9%
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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