Global| Sep 22 2009Canadian Retail Sales Are Digging Out Slowly
Summary
Retail sales in Canada fell by 0.6% in July following a surge in growth of 1% in June and of 1.1% in May. In the new quarter retail sales are expanding at a 3% pace in nominal terms. For the quarter supermarket sales are dropping. [...]
Retail sales in Canada fell by 0.6% in July following a surge
in growth of 1% in June and of 1.1% in May. In the new quarter retail
sales are expanding at a 3% pace in nominal terms. For the quarter
supermarket sales are dropping. Sales of new car dealers are surging in
double digits. Clothing sales are up at a 3.4% nominal pace. Excluding
autos the annual rate gain early in Q3 are 0.9%.
More broadly, sales trends show gains that are gathering pace
over three-months and mixed to the positive side over six months.
Overall sales are expanding at a rate of 6.4% over three months at a
pace of 3.6% excluding autos and at a 6.4% pace for overall sales.
The chart shows how Canada’s retail sales simply fell off a
cliff at the end of 2008 when the US economy’s financial crisis took
hold. Since then ex-auto sales are showing a more consistent rebound.
Overall sales have only really reduced their rate of decline and the
trend drop still seems to be operative for year-over year calculations.
However over that short spans memorialized in the table both overall
and ex-auto sales are hosing that progress is in train.
| Canada Retail Sales | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo/Mo | Saar | New QTR | ||||||
| Nominal % | Jul-09 | Jun-09 | May-09 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-MO | Yr-Ago | Saar |
| Total RTL | -0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.4% | 2.5% | -4.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| New Car Dealerss | 0.2% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 18.0% | 15.1% | -6.6% | -5.8% | 10.5% |
| Supermarkets | -1.6% | 0.8% | -0.2% | -3.9% | -2.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | -6.6% |
| Clothing Stores | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.8% | -2.1% | -4.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| Retail less MVs | -0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 0.2% | -4.7% | 7.9% | 0.9% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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