Global| Sep 16 2002Business Inventory Accumulation Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories rose strongly in July versus consensus expectations for only a slight gain. It was the third consecutive month of accumulation following over a year during which inventories were shed. Retail inventories, [...]
Total business inventories rose strongly in July versus consensus expectations for only a slight gain. It was the third consecutive month of accumulation following over a year during which inventories were shed.
Retail inventories, reported for the first time, rose (4.2% YTD) for the sixth month this year. Nonauto retail inventories also rose (1.2% YTD). For the second month in three the gain was strong.
Inventory gains at auto dealers and at furniture & home furnishings stores has been notable.
Overall business sales surged 1.2%% (3.6% YTD) on the strength of higher retail and factory sales.
The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.35, near the record low.
| Business Inventories | July | June | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4% | 0.3% | -3.7% | -6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% |
| Retail | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | -5.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | -2.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% |
| Wholesale | 0.6% | 0.4% | -4.7% | -5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% |
| Manufacturing | -0.1% | -0.1% | -7.1% | -8.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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