Global| Sep 13 2002August Retail Sales Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail sales rose more than expected in August. It was the fourth firm rise in the last five months. Year to date sales are up at a 5.6% annual rate. July sales were little revised. Sales of motor vehicle and parts dealers again were [...]
Retail sales rose more than expected in August. It was the fourth firm rise in the last five months. Year to date sales are up at a 5.6% annual rate. July sales were little revised.
Sales of motor vehicle and parts dealers again were strong, rising 1.9% (7.3% AR, YTD) as zero percent financing plans were extended by automakers.
Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts dealers rose 0.4% (5.1% AR, YTD), twice the consensus expectation.
Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores rose 0.7%, though sketchy results of late left August sales down versus December. Clothing and accessories store sales fell for the fifth month this year. The YTD comparison also is negative. General merchandise store sales rose 0.6% (4.8% AR, YTD).
Sales at gasoline stations fell 0.8% (17.6% AR, YTD). Nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose 0.5% (4.0% AR, YTD)
| Aug | July | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.8% | 1.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4% | 0.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% |
by Tom Moeller September 13, 2002
Finished producer prices were weaker than expected last month. Prices were unchanged rather than up 0.2% as the Consensus expected. Excluding food and energy prices also were weaker than expectations for a 0.1% rise. Core producer prices fell for the second consecutive month (-0.5% AR, YTD).
Energy prices rose 1.0% (10.8% AR, YTD) following three months when prices fell or were little changed.
Food prices fell for the fourth month in five.
Core finished consumer goods prices fell for the second month in a row (-0.2% AR, YTD). Core nondurable goods prices rose modestly (1.0% AR, YTD). Consumer durables prices fell for the fifth month this year (-1.6% AR, YTD). Capital goods prices fell for the fifth month this year (-1.0% AR, YTD).
Intermediate goods prices posted the strongest rise since April (2.9% AR, YTD). Core intermediate prices were firm (2.0% YTD, AR).
Crude goods prices also were firm (20.1% AR, YTD) reflecting higher prices for energy and other commodities. Core crude prices were up 17.5% (AR) year to date.
| Producer Price Index | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | 0.0% | -0.2% | -1.5% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Core | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.4% | 0.2% | -0.7% | 0.4% | 4.9% | 0.1% |
| Core | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 2.6% | -0.3% |
| Crude Goods | 1.6% | 0.6% | -4.1% | 0.3% | 22.8% | 1.5% |
| Core | 0.4% | 1.7% | 9.0% | -9.9% | 7.3% | -4.7% |
by Tom Moeller September 13, 2002
The mid-September reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan was weaker than expectations for a slight rise. Sentiment fell 1.6% (m/m) signaling the sixth monthly decline this year.
Both the indexes of consumer expectations and current conditions fell. The current index fell sharply.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.
For a discussion of consumer confidence and sentiment in the aftermath of September 11th click here.
| University of Michigan | Mid-Sept. | Aug | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 86.2 | 87.6 | 5.4% | 89.2 | 107.6 | 105.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
