Global| May 02 2012ADP Report Indicates Hiring Slowdown
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Job growth hit a soft-spot last month. Private sector payrolls rose 119,000 as reported by the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers. A 180,000 gain had been expected. The [...]
Job growth hit a soft-spot last month. Private
sector payrolls rose 119,000 as reported by
the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic
consultants Macroeconomic Advisers. A 180,000 gain had been expected. The
increase followed a 201,000 rise in March, last month reported as 209,000.
During the last three months payrolls rose an average 183,000 per month.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report April payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 173,000 worker increase in private sector jobs. By comparison, the March increase of 201,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 121,000 gain in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP figure and the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiles its estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
Slower growth in payrolls was broad-based during April. Service producing payrolls rose 123,000 (1.8% y/y) following growth as high as 225,000 in December. Goods-producing payrolls fell 4,000 following a March gain of 43,000. Factory sector jobs also fell by 5,000. Overall, small-sized payrolls led last month's job growth with a reduced 58,000 (1.9% y/y) increase. Medium-sized payrolls followed with a 57,000 (1.9% y/y) increase while large payrolls rose just 4,000 (0.6% y/y). Construction employment fell 5,000 following two months of strong increase but the number of financial activities jobs rose an improved 13,000.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP National Employment Report | Apr | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) | 119 | 201 | 228 | 1.7% | 1.4% | -1.0% | -4.1% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 58 | 97 | 111 | 1.9 | 1.4 | -0.9 | -4.1 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 57 | 84 | 95 | 1.9 | 1.8 | -0.9 | -5.7 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 4 | 20 | 22 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -1.8 | -5.6 |
| Goods Producing | -4 | 43 | 44 | 1.1 | 0.8 | -4.8 | -12.4 |
| Manufacturing | -5 | 23 | 24 | 0.7 | 1.3 | -3.2 | -11.4 |
| Service Producing | 123 | 158 | 184 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -0.2 | -3.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
