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Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

Tom Moeller

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The rate of decline in Texas manufacturing activity ease in June, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The General Business Activity index rose to -12.7% this month from -15.3% in May but remained below a high of +14.1 in January. A higher 17.9% of respondents reported improved business activity in June. The Future Business Activity index rose sharply to 14.4 this month to its highest level since January. The data was collected from June 13-21 from 85 manufacturing firms.

The employment index rose in June to 5.7, its best reading since July 2024 as a higher 17.8% of respondents reported higher employment this month. Also moving higher was the new orders index to -7.3, though the level still was negative. Improving sharply, the capital expenditures index surged to 10.9, the highest level since January. The production index of 1.3 was up from 0.9 in May as an increased 31.7% of respondents reported gains in output.

The shipments reading fell to -7.3 from +0.5. The hours-worked index declined to -8.4, its lowest point since in four months. The growth rate of new orders index dropped to -17.2; it hasn’t been positive since January. The wages & benefits index declined to 13.4, down from a high of 55.0 in March 2022.

Inflation indicators strengthened this month. The index for prices received for finished goods jumped to 26.1 from 15.1 in May. It was the highest level since July 2022. A higher 29.8% of respondents reported raising prices this month while 3.7% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials rose to 43.0 from 40.7 this month, up from a low of 1.0 in June 2023 but still below a high of 82.2 in June 2021.

The jump in the Future Manufacturing Activity Index reflected a strengthening in expected new orders growth to 15.3 and expected shipments to 27.3, though expected production fell to 22.6. The future wages & benefits reading jumped to 32.1, its highest level since February. The future employment index rose to 15.4 and the future wages & benefits reading doubled to 32.1. The future capital spending reading, however, fell to 16.9 and the future production weakened to 22.6 and remained below a November high of 45.2. The future capital spending reading declined to 16.9 and reversed half of its May improvement.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease in activity from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Weakness in general business activity index has diminished.
- Employment & capital spending readings improve.
- Expectations for shipments & new orders rise. 
- Current capital spending jumps but expectations weaken.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Improves Modestly in June; Expectations Jump

Robert Brusca

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Globally money growth has stabilized more in the month of May.  

**In the European Monetary Union** (EMU) over three months the annualized money growth rate ticked up to 2.9%, compared with 2.5% growth rate over six months and a 3.6% growth rate over 12 months; over two and three years the growth rate for money in EMU has been 2% for two years and 1.4% for three years. Compared to that, we have money growth sustaining itself at a stronger level.

**In the United States**, money growth continues to accelerate but slightly; the three-month growth rate for money is 6.2%; at an annual rate over six months it's 4.9%; over 12 months its pace is 4.5%. Money growth has steadily accelerated compared to a 0.4% growth over 3 years and a 2.7% pace over 2 years. The U.S. is the one exception where money growth rates are looking hot and where there has been steady acceleration in these growth rate; these calculations are in terms of M2.

**The United Kingdom** shows more variability as 12-month growth in U.K. for the money aggregate M4 is 3.5%. That moves up to 4.1% over 6 months and is back down to 1.7% annualized over 3 months. So, the 3-month growth rate in the U.K. is looking more like the 1.8% growth rate over 2 years, but even that stepped up from 1.1% over 3 years. In the case of the U.K., money growth rates have picked up and do seem to have steadied and they are off their top growth pace. However, at 1.7% the nominal growth rate of money over three months is on the light side

**Japan**, of course, is the central bank that is still engaged in raising rates and still has an acknowledged inflation problem. In Japan, the 3-month growth rate for M2 plus CDs is -1.3% annualized, weaker than 0.1% over 6 months which is weaker than 0.6% over 12 months; the Japanese money growth rates also decelerate from three-years to two-years and continue to decelerate on down to three-months. The Bank of Japan is still plotting its strategy for an inflation rate that appears to be both stubborn and slightly excessive. However, it's a welcome set of problems compared to the deflation that Japan dealt with the decade earlier.

**Real money balances**
Real money balances tend to show some step up in pace. In the case of the European Monetary Union, there's a steady acceleration of money growth from -2% at an annual rate over three years to +2.3% over 3 months and more or less steady pickups from period to period in between.

In the U.S., real money growth rates show a persistence acceleration from -2.8% at an annual rate over three years to the 5.2% annual rate over three months. Real money supply growth in the U.S. is cooking and strong, particularly over three months. However, over six months the growth rate is only 2.2% so the heat in terms of U.S. money supply growth is a relatively recent phenomenon.

In the U.K., real M4 growth continues to show contraction and M4 growth contracts over all horizons; over three years, two years 12 months, six months and three-months. However, the three-month contraction is at a -1.6% rate, deeper contraction than the 12-month rate (-0.4%) and pretty close to what it's done over two years on balance (-1.5%) although that's a step up in the pace of contraction compared to 12-months to six-months. U.K. growth has been running on the weak side in addition to its weak real and nominal money supply growth.

Japan shows contraction and money supply overall horizons and the contraction gets progressively larger over more recent periods; money growth is at a -4.1% annual rate over three months and that compares to -2.8% over 12 months, logging a declining rate of -1.4% at an annual rate over three years. Japan’s weak real money growth is a policy decision.

The background for real and nominal money growth is that oil prices are continuing to fall. They're falling in nominal terms and in real terms with year-over-year oil prices falling at about a 23% annual rate and in real terms the oil price is falling at about a 25% annual rate. The weakness in oil is helping central banks catch up on their inflation mandates at least four headline inflation.

**EU credit growth is lax**
And the European Monetary Union credit growth continues to expand but it is slowing. Private credit grows 2.4% at an annual rate over 12 months, but that slips to 1.5% annualized over three months and compares to the kind of growth that Europe had been seeing over two and three years where the growth rates averaged 1.4% and 1.7%. Real credit growth in the monetary union shows that there has been a pickup in the growth rates from 12 months to six months to three months; all show expansion although there's not steady acceleration there is steady positive growth. Those are good developments for the outlook for growth.

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**Global conditions**
Global inflation rates have begun to coalesce a little bit more around a 2% pace. Tariffs continue to be a sticking point as they haven't been sorted out yet and the U.S. and China continue to go back and forth while the U.S. and Canada appeared to have hit some sort of stalemate. Still, global geopolitics don't look quite as grim as they did a while ago. NATO has sided with the U.S. demand for them to spend more. More NATO countries have generally decided to spend 5% of GDP on military. In the Middle East, the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has resulted in a ceasefire and a cooling off of the Iran-Israeli conflict although we can't report any such cooling that is extended to Ukraine-Russia. The global geopolitical situation remains touch and go, but the fact that NATO countries were able to cut a deal is good news; having a ceasefire between Israel and Iran is good news; and we're waiting to see if we can report any kind of news on the tariff front as deadlines approach.

**Money seems a less active force**
Money growth on its own has become more of a neutral factor with money generally not signaling growth that's too hot or too cold although with some very particular country level differences and especially with Japan continuing to try to reduce its domestic inflation rate. The main fly-in-the-ointment right now is excessive U.S. money growth. That's occurring while some U.S. statistics have been a little more touch and go and where the Federal Reserve is pursuing a wait-andsee attitude on future policy, but with the central bank still planning to tip the balance on the side of easing further.

Globally Money Growth Stabilizes Except in Japan

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we look at the state of US–Asia trade talks as the July 9 expiration of the US’ 90-day tariff pause approaches. Despite early activity, few deals have been finalized. So far, the US has reached only a limited agreement with the UK and rolled back mutual tariffs with China, alongside a framework on rare earth exports. Much of the action has focused on undoing previous measures rather than making new advances. Still, Asian markets have shown signs of stability (chart 1), though volatility may return as the tariff deadline nears. The outcome remains uncertain. President Trump has indicated flexibility on the deadline, and Treasury Secretary Bessent has suggested more deals may come only by Labor Day in September. Meanwhile, US effective tariff rates have already risen (chart 2), though inflation impacts have been muted, likely due in part to importers absorbing costs.

Among Asian partners, India shows the most near-term promise, with ongoing talks focused on mutual market access, though barriers remain in agriculture and dairy (chart 3). Japan has made no breakthroughs despite pressing concerns over auto and metal tariffs—sectors key to exports and GVA (chart 4). South Korea, just emerging from political transition, is only beginning substantive talks (chart 5). In Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Vietnam are among the most likely to reach agreements. Both face steep tariff hikes if talks fail, particularly Vietnam with a potential 46% rate. Indonesia has submitted proposals, while Vietnam remains optimistic. Thailand, still early in talks and politically distracted, is unlikely to meet the July 9 deadline (chart 6).

**US trade deals so far this year**
We have already reached the end of the first half of the year, and the US’ flurry of trade-related actions has so far yielded tangible outcomes with only a few countries. To date, the US has concluded a limited trade deal with the UK and reached an agreement with China to roll back many of the tariffs both sides imposed earlier this year. More recently, the US and China also established a framework concerning China’s rare earth export controls. That said, much of the world remains without new US trade deals. Most of the developments thus far have focused on partially reversing measures implemented earlier this year, rather than advancing beyond the pre-inauguration day baseline. Still, a measure of market calm has returned—at least in Asia—as reflected in recent rallies across some of the region’s equity indexes (chart 1). However, renewed volatility may lie ahead as the July 9 expiration of the US’ 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs approaches.

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The situation, however, remains highly fluid. While US President Trump may reimpose his “Liberation Day” tariffs if no deals are reached by the July 9 deadline, he could also opt to extend the pause—especially if there appears to be potential for favourable trade agreements. This possibility was hinted at by Trump himself, who remarked that the US “could do whatever we want,” including extending or even shortening the deadlines. Also, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that additional trade deals are more likely to materialize by Labor Day on September 1 instead of the July 9 deadline. Complicating progress on US trade talks with other countries is a string of recent geopolitical flashpoints—including US involvement, directly or indirectly, in the Israel-Iran, Israel-Hamas, and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. These crises have dominated headlines and may have also diverted the President’s attention. In the meantime, US effective tariff rates have already increased, as shown in chart 2, reflecting the impact of tariffs already in force. Interestingly, US inflation has not yet spiked as might have been expected. This could be partly due to importers absorbing some of the tariff costs by cutting prices.

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**India**
Setting aside the agreements already reached, the country that currently appears to hold the most promise for the next tangible US trade outcome is India. US President Trump has indicated that a “very big” trade deal with India is likely on the horizon. Whether a first phase of that deal can be finalized before the July 9 deadline remains uncertain, with just over a week to go. However, the progress made so far may be enough to earn India some additional breathing room before the reintroduction of the US’ “Liberation Day” tariffs. Of particular interest to the US is greater access to India’s domestic markets, which have traditionally been heavily protected by both tariff and non-tariff barriers (chart 3). So far, India has shown some reluctance to fully open certain key sectors—particularly dairy and agriculture. In turn, India is seeking expanded access to US markets, especially in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles and leather goods, which are important for its workforce.

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**Japan**
Turning to Japan, progress on a trade deal with the US appears more elusive than in the case of India. So far, there have been no reported breakthroughs in US–Japan talks. While Japan has put forward proposals, the US has yet to move forward on talks, and Japan still faces significant hurdles in resolving its key concerns—namely, US tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminium. The auto industry, in particular, is vital to Japan’s economy. Though it accounts for just under 3% of gross value added (GVA), it contributes substantially to export revenues (chart 4), with the US serving as Japan’s largest export market for vehicles. This underscores the economic weight of the US’ 25% auto tariffs. With time running short, final-hour efforts are ramping up. Following Prime Minister Ishiba’s inability to reach a deal with President Trump at the recent G7 summit, Japan’s chief negotiator, Akazawa, has extended his seventh visit to Washington to help push talks forward.

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**South Korea**
Like Japan, South Korea faces similar tariff-related pain points with the US—particularly on autos and steel—given the importance of these sectors to Korea’s economy (chart 5). However, unlike Japan, Korea’s trade discussions with the US have understandably been slowed by domestic political uncertainty. The country only recently concluded its elections after a prolonged period of instability, and its new Trade Minister, Yeo, only recently held his first meeting with US counterparts, having just assumed office. As a result, the pace, structure, and direction of Korea’s trade talks with the US remain at a very early stage, with significant progress yet to be made. Given this context, a substantive trade deal by the July 9 deadline appears unlikely, though a limited initial agreement may still be possible.

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**Southeast Asia**
Lastly, we turn to Southeast Asia, where reports of substantial progress on trade deals with the US have been limited. However, two countries—Indonesia and Vietnam—stand out as among the most likely to secure agreements before the July 9 deadline. Both have strong incentives to do so, as they face the steepest potential reversal of the US' “Liberation Day” tariff pause, with rates shown in chart 6, should no deal be reached and no extension granted. In mid-April, Indonesia and the US agreed to fast-track negotiations, targeting completion within 60 days. The Indonesian side has reportedly submitted all required documentation for its proposal and is now awaiting a response from the US. As part of its offer, Indonesia has pledged cooperation on critical minerals and committed to increasing energy imports from the US, among other concessions.

Vietnam, meanwhile, is also pushing to finalize a deal before the deadline. Its Prime Minister has expressed confidence that an agreement will be reached in time. Missing the deadline would trigger a steep 46% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US—an outcome that would significantly impact the Vietnamese economy, given the importance of the US market. Thailand, another economy facing one of the highest prospective “Liberation Day” tariff rates, is in a less advanced position. It has only recently begun trade discussions with the US, making a substantial deal by July 9 unlikely. Additionally, domestic political uncertainty—intensified by the recent leak of Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s phone call—adds another layer of complexity.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Tariff Deadlines

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The PCE chain price index rose an expected 0.1% during May, the same as in April. The y/y rise, however, edged up to 2.3% following 2.2%. Energy prices declined 1.0% (-4.6% y/y) after rising 0.5% in April, while food prices rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y) following a 0.3% decline. The price index excluding food & energy rose 0.2%, after two straight 0.1% increases. Its y/y change of 2.7% last month followed April’s 2.6%. The y/y gain, nevertheless, remained near the slowest since March 2021, down from a 5.6% high in September 2022.

Durable goods prices held steady (+0.5% y/y) in May, after rising 0.5% in April. Home furnishings & appliance prices increased 0.6% (0.7% y/y), after increasing 0.4%. Motor vehicle & parts prices slipped 0.1% (+0.5% y/y), after no change in April. Recreational goods & vehicle costs eased slightly (-0.1% y/y) after strengthening 1.5% in April.

Prices of nondurable goods rose 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) last month after falling 0.1% in April. Lower gasoline & other energy prices held back the overall change and declined 2.2% (-12.0% y/y), after easing 0.3% in April. Clothing prices eased 0.4% (-1.1% y/y) after holding steady in April. Other nondurable goods prices rose 0.7% (1.5% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher.

Services prices rose 0.2% (3.4% y/y) in May, after rising 0.1% in April. Housing & utility prices rose 0.3% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.4% gain, and services prices excluding energy & healthcare gained 0.2% higher (3.7% y/y), after holding steady in April. Healthcare prices edged 0.1% higher (2.2% y/y), after a 0.2% gain. The cost of financial services & insurance eased 0.2% (+5.0% y/y) after falling 0.8% in April. Recreation services costs fell 0.3% (+3.5% y/y), following a 0.7% April decline. Transportation prices improved 0.1% (3.4% y/y), after rising 0.4% in April, while hotel & restaurant prices rose 0.3% (3.0% y/y), the same as in April.

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Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) eased 0.1% (+4.5% y/y) in May, after a 0.2% rise in April. The decline compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. When adjusted for price changes, PCE fell 0.3% in April (+2.2% y/y) after increasing 0.1% in April.

Real spending on durable goods declined 1.8% (+3.8% y/y) in May, after declining slightly in April. Real spending on motor vehicles declined 6.0% (+4.0% y/y), after a 1.6% rise. Real outlays on furnishings & appliances eased 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) last month following a 0.3% decline. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles increased 0.6% (4.0% y/y) last month, after falling 2.0% in April. Spending on “other” durable goods jumped 1.3% (1.8% y/y) after rising 0.8% in April.

Nondurable goods spending in real terms edged 0.3% lower (2.5% y/y) in May after edging 0.1% higher in March. Real clothing & footwear purchases rebounded 1.4% (5.1% y/y) last month, following a 0.4% April decline. Real food & beverage purchases were off 0.3% (+1.4% y/y) and reversed the 0.2% rise in the prior month. Real outlays on gasoline & other energy products declined 2.6% (-2.9% y/y), after rising 1.7%. Real spending on “other” nondurable goods slipped 0.2% (+4.2% y/y) last month, following a 0.3% decline during April.

Real spending on services was roughly steady (+1.8% y/y) last month, following a 0.1% April improvement. Real spending on housing & utilities rose 0.1% (1.1% y/y) in May, after rising 0.2%, while real health care spending rose 0.2% (4.5% y/y) after rising 0.3%. Real spending on food services & accommodations declined 1.0% (+0.5% y/y), after no change in April. Real spending on financial services & insurance fell 0.2% (+2.3% y/y) after rising 0.5%. Real spending on transportation services fell 0.5% (-1.1% y/y) in May, after edging 0.2% lower in April. Recreation spending improved 0.7% (0.2% y/y), the same as in April. A 0.1% slip (+2.7% y/y) in spending on “other” services followed a 0.3% April decline.

Personal income fell 0.4% (+4.5% y/y) after 0.7% gain. A 0.3% gain was expected. Wages & salaries rose 0.4% (4.7% y/y), the same as in April. Rental income declined 0.4% (+3.9% y/y), after easing slightly in April. Proprietors’ income tumbled 2.3% (2.5% y/y), following a 1.2% strengthening. Income from assets fell slightly (+1.1% y/y), after falling 0.5%, and current transfer receipts declined 2.2% (+7.5% y/y) following a 2.5% April rise. Government social benefits weakened 2.3% (+7.4% y/y) in May.

Disposable personal income decreased 0.6% (+4.1% y/y) during May following a 0.8% April rise. After adjusting for price changes, disposable income fell 0.7% (+1.7% y/y) after rising 0.6% in April.

The personal saving rate fell to 4.5% in May, after rising to 4.9% in April. It still stands well above low of 3.5% in December of last year. Personal saving fell 8.8% (-3.9% y/y) in May, after surging 12.8% in April.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Core price index increase reverses earlier weakening.
- Real spending moves lower.
- Disposable income’s decline lowers savings rate.


U.S. Core PCE Price Inflation Strengthens in May; Real Spending Eases as Income Weakens

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The EU Commission indexes for June 2025 shows erosion in the overall index to a level of 94 compared to 94.8 in May. The readings for France have become particularly weak in the last two months. As shown in the chart, it is apparent that the reading for France has fallen quite sharply during this period. France has posted index declines of 3.7% in consecutive months; these are quite large declines. The cumulative two-month drop for France has been larger less than 5% of the time back to 2015; Romania and Denmark (EU Member) also has experienced relatively sharp drops in the last two months. While Portugal and Belgium have experienced top 5% to 7% increases in the last two months. Germany has generally improved although it backed off in the current month. The euro area reading has been in a state of minor erosion; Italy is currently in a several month phase of having bounced back from a period of weakness. All-in-all it has not been a particularly good period for the European monetary union or in its large economies with the exception of Germany.

**Sector performance**
The five sector or environmental readings that we have for the Monetary Union show erosion on the month for three of five of the readings. Improving month-to-month is the services sector which moved to a reading of +3 in June from +2 in May. The construction sector moved to a reading of -3 in June from -4 in May; however, eroding is the reading for retailing that fell to -8 from -7 in May; consumer confidence edged lower to -15.3 from -15.1 in May; and the industrial sector reading fell to -12 from -10 in May. The improvement is in the cyclical and small employment sector of construction but also in the major employment sector of services. Meanwhile the all-important manufacturing or industrial sector has eroded on the month and this is the sector we are focused on - and concerned about - particularly with tariffs in flux.

**Rankings or standings by industry**
As of June, the overall European monetary union index has a 23.5 percentile standing on data since about 1990 while the industrial sector standing is in its 16th percentile, consumer confidence in its 18th percentile, and services standing in their 24th percentile. Retailing has a 46.4 percentile standing that moves it up closer to its median for the period (median readings on ranked data occur at a ranking of 50%). So, retailing is getting closer to a median performance while construction is above its median with a standing in its 77.5 percentile.

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**Country level readings**
Among the 18 early reporting European monetary union member countries, nine of them showed month-to-month declines in June; this compares to 10 declining in May, and eleven of them declining in April. That is a slightly positive but not exactly impressive trend. Perhaps more worrisome, is that three of the four largest monetary union economies showed declines in June compared to two in May and one in April. Among these 18 reporting economies in June, none of them was showing a consistent increase over the last three months; however, consistent declines were reported by Estonia and Greece, two relatively small economies.

**Rank standings for countries**
The rank standings for the monetary union countries individually show the large countries with mixed performance. The monetary union overall standing is at 23.5%. Germany at 17.1% and France at 15.9% shows both are below the community ranking. However, Italy at 41% and Spain at 46.6% are above the community standing. Turning to the other member countries, there are only four with readings above their 50th percentile; those are Malta, Portugal, Lithuania, and Greece. Among these other economies, those whose standings are weaker than the overall standing for the monetary union includes Austria, Estonia, and Slovakia. The performance of the large economies appears to have a large influence on the rankings of the community overall.

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Large economies continue to spot weak reading across sectors

**Hard times for Europe**
Of course, this is a time with a lot of difficulty as well as political forces coming to bear in Europe. Hot war in the Middle East broke out and has a since been contained although I'm sure that many people are going to view this ceasefire with some skepticism until it proves itself to be enduring. There was a recent NATO meeting that will change the face of Europe as NATO members - apparently all of them except Spain - have agreed to spend 5% of GDP bolstering their military. This is a very significant development especially with the war in Ukraine continuing and Russia seeming like it has no interest in giving peace anything other than lip service possibly to gain temporary advantages from a ceasefire. The success of Israel with support from the U.S. in the Middle East war has upset the balance of power there where the newfound respect for the capabilities of Israel is changing the face of diplomacy there.

**Summing up: tariffs dominate the outlook**
The U.S. continues to have its tariff negotiations in train. After Spain refused to spend 5% of GDP as part of its NATO pledge, President Trump has promised to double or triple tariffs on Spain to make them more than pay for the money they think they're saving in military spending. Interestingly, more and more analysts seem to be accepting the view that tariffs are going to be used as a more generalized club and not just as a tool within international trade. Very clearly there has been a shift in the global environment and the way people view it. And we are going to have to continue to watch and wait to see how the tariff situation shakes out and what its impact is going to be on various economies, on their industrial sectors, and on their service sectors, and whether the U.S. is able to create a set of agreements that doesn't degenerate into an all-out bilateral trade wars.

Europe

EMU Sentiment Indicators from EU Commission Show Easing

Andrew Cates

**The global business cycle**
Despite the tariff disruptions triggered earlier this year by the Trump administration, the latest flash PMI surveys suggest the global economy is proving more resilient than many had feared. As shown in our first chart, momentum has picked up notably in Japan. While the U.S. has lost some ground over the past three months—likely reflecting tariff-related uncertainty—the overall level of its flash PMI remains consistent with solid underlying growth. France, by contrast, remains a clear laggard. Its PMI continues to sit well below the 50 threshold, pointing to ongoing contraction. However, the pace of decline has eased modestly over the past three months, hinting at some tentative stabilisation. Meanwhile, the UK posted modest growth in June, though at a markedly slower pace than earlier in the year. All told, global growth remains uneven. But the snapshot from June suggests that, for now, the world economy is holding up better than expected—and the broader fallout from US tariffs has yet to deliver a decisive global drag.

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**World trade**
South Korea’s latest trade data offer a reassuring signal on global growth. Often seen as a bellwether for world trade, Korea’s exports—especially semiconductors—posted solid year-on-year gains in the first 20 days of June, despite tariff headwinds. The resilience in chip exports suggests global industrial activity and tech demand have also held up well possibly thanks to some front-loading of US demand.

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**Consumer confidence**
Yet beneath the surface of this strength in trade and business sentiment, consumers are showing signs of strain. The latest confidence data—from the US Conference Board, the UK GfK Barometer, and the Euro Area flash estimate—reveal a picture of fragility. All three regions continue to register Z-scores below their long-run averages and with some notable weakness in the US in particular over recent months.

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**Global disinflation progress**
Inflation trends in advanced economies are giving central banks some much-needed breathing room. As the next chart shows, goods inflation—once the epicentre of the post-pandemic surge—has not only eased but briefly dipped into negative territory in late 2024. Services inflation remains more stubborn, but it too is gradually losing momentum. This modest but steady deceleration has been enough to reinforce a more dovish tone among central banks. Even so, the pace of any further policy easing will hinge on whether disinflation persists and whether fragile consumer sentiment—highlighted in earlier charts—translates into broader demand weakness.

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**Gold and Bitcoin**
Amid macro uncertainty, still-elevated geopolitical risk, and some residual inflation concerns, investors have continued to flock to real and alternative assets over the past few years. This next chart highlights the strong correlation between gold and bitcoin, both of which have surged since mid-2023. While their drivers differ, their joint rally reflects deeper anxieties about fiat debasement, sovereign risk, and policy limits. With further rate cuts looming, demand for inflation hedges and portfolio diversifiers has returned. Volatile as they are, these assets arguably remain key barometers of market trust in institutions and financial stability.

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**Electricity generation** 
Beneath the surface here lies a deeper, slower-burning source of uncertainty: the global energy transition. This chart shows that while global per capita electricity generation has steadily increased, fossil fuels still dominate the mix—by a wide margin. Renewable electricity has made impressive gains, but not nearly fast enough to displace hydrocarbons. Nuclear, once a larger part of the mix, has stagnated or declined in many regions. This structural imbalance raises urgent questions about how the global economy will meet growing energy demand while staying within planetary boundaries. And for all the excitement around green innovation, the energy system remains carbon-heavy—and the road to decarbonisation still fraught with friction.

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Financial markets have been on a geopolitical rollercoaster in recent days. The Iran–Israel flare-up briefly sent oil prices surging and risk assets tumbling, but tensions have since eased and market conditions have stabilised. That calm has refocused attention on underlying fundamentals—and the signals are mixed. Business surveys and Asian trade data (charts 1 and 2) suggest global growth momentum has held up well, despite the recent US tariff shock. But consumers are painting a more cautious picture: confidence remains subdued across the US, UK, and Eurozone, pointing to a more fragile backdrop (chart 3). In the US, signs of softer growth and inflation have caught the Fed’s eye, with several officials adopting a more dovish tone in recent days (chart 4). Yet structural risks continue to loom large. The sustained strength in gold and bitcoin reflects ongoing unease over inflation, financial stability, and broader geopolitical risk (chart 5). And the energy transition remains a critical faultline. Fossil fuels still dominate electricity generation, and while renewables are growing, they are arguably not scaling fast enough to meet rising demand or climate goals (chart 6). In short, climate risk and geopolitical instability continue to cast a long shadow over the outlook—well beyond the reach of monetary policy.

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Charts of the Week: Calmer on the Surface, Cracks Beneath

Sandy Batten

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The 0.2% q/q saar decline in Q1 real GDP was revised significantly weaker to a 0.5% saar quarterly decline. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for no revision. The major factor behind the downward revision was much weaker personal consumption expenditures (PCE) than previously estimated. PCE advanced only 0.5% q/q, down from 1.2% in the previous estimate and 1.8% in the advance estimate. Within PCE, spending on services slowed markedly, increasingly just 0.6%, the slowest advance since Q2 2020 when spending collapsed after the COVID lockdown. The BEA noted that the revision to spending on services reflected new data from the Quarterly Services Survey. In the second estimate, spending on services had risen 1.7%.

The sharp widening of the trade deficit continued to be a major drag on GDP in Q1. Goods imports were revised down slightly from a 53.3% q/q saar surge in the second estimate to a still gigantic 51.6% quarterly increase. Export growth was revised markedly slower at 0.4% from 2.4% previously. The net effect was that net exports subtracted 4.6%-points after this revision, down from 4.9%-points previously. Some of the surge in imports landed in inventories, which rose $154 billion 2017$ and boosted GDP by 2.6%-points, essentially unchanged from the previous estimate.

The underlying health of the economy was not as good as previously estimated as domestic demand measures were revised down again. Final sales to domestic purchasers growth was revised down to 1.5% q/q saar from 2.0% in the second estimate, 2.3% in the advance report and 3.0% in last year’s Q4. Final sales to private domestic purchasers (a favorite measure of the Fed) slowed to 1.9% from 2.5% in the previous estimate, 3.0% in the advance report and 2.9% in Q4. After this revision, it is now clear that the economy has slowed markedly since the end of last year.

On a more positive note, nonresidential fixed investment continued to provide a meaningful boost to Q1 GDP. Growth of total nonresidential fixed investment was unrevised at 10.3% q/q saar, the largest quarterly advance since Q1 2022. This was led by a 23.7% quarterly surge in business spending on equipment, revised down slightly from 24.6% in the second estimate. This was still the fastest pace of equipment spending since the rebound from COVID lockdown in Q3 2020. By contrast, residential investment in Q1 was revised weaker in this estimate, falling 1.3% versus the previously estimated -0.6%.

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Government spending was essentially unrevised, falling 0.6%q/q saar, led by an unrevised 7.1% decline in spending on national defense. Spending by state and local governments was revised slightly stronger with a 2.0% quarterly gain versus 1.7% in the previous estimate.

GDP price inflation was revised up a tick to 3.8% q/q saar from 3.7% previously and still a marked acceleration from 2.3% in Q4. PCE price inflation was also revised up a tick to 3.7%, well above the Fed’s 2% target, from 3.6% previously.

The previously reported 2.9% q/q not annualized decline in corporate profits was revised up to a 2.3% decrease. Domestic profits slipped 1.5% versus -2.5% previously while foreign profits slumped 7.3% versus -5.9% previously.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The previously reported 0.2% q/q saar decline was revised to -0.5%.
- Consumer spending weakened markedly to a tepid 0.5% from 1.2% previously.
- Net exports were still the major drag while inventory investment still made a key contribution.
- GDP and PCE inflation were each revised up slightly.

U.S. Q1 GDP Revised Weaker in Third Estimate

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The Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.8% in May (1.1% y/y) to 72.6 after falling an unrevised 6.3% in April and rising an unrevised 5.5% in March according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Index remained 42.0% below its most recent peak of 125.1 in October 2021. The index is a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings.

The rise in May pending home sales occurred as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 6.82% in May after rising to 6.73% in April. These rates remained well above a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

Pending home sales rose in each of the four major regions of the country last month. Sales in the West increased 6.0% (-1.2% y/y) in May after falling in five of the six prior months. Sales in the Northeast rose 2.1% (-0.5% y/y) after easing 0.6% in April. In the South, sales increased 1.0% (2.0% y/y) following a 7.8% April decline while sales in the Midwest edged 0.3% higher (2.6% y/y) following a 5.0% April weakening.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Rise recaptures part of earlier decline.
- Regional gains are widespread.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise in May

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U.S. light vehicle sales dipped 0.5% (+2.4% y/y) to 15.65 million units (SAAR) in June after falling 8.8% to 15.73 million units in May. The retreat in June vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through May, which compared to 2.1% growth last year.

Sales declines were mixed last month. Light truck sales fell 0.4% (+4.9% y/y) during June to 12.97 million units (SAAR), after falling 8.9% to 13.02 million in May and weakening 1.7% in April to 14.29 million. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.8% (+4.6% y/y) to 9.99 million units, after falling 7.5% in May. Sales of imported light trucks rose 4.6% (5.7% y/y) to 2.97 million units, following a 14.5% fall during May.

Trucks’ record 83.0% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 82.8% in May and 80.8% in June of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales rose a slight 0.4% last month, down 8.5% y/y, to 2.69 million units (SAAR) following an 8.8% May decline. Purchases of domestically-produced cars were off 2.5% (-9.2% y/y) last month to 1.98 million units, after declining 8.6% in May. Sales of imported autos rose 9.2% (-6.6% y/y) to 0.71 million units, following a 12.2% May decline.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was increased from 22.2% in May. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 26.4% last month and compared to 25.9% in June of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market rose to 22.9% last month after falling to 21.8% in May.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales ease while auto sales improve.
- Domestic sales tumble but imports increase.
- Imports' market share recovers May decline.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Slip in June

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