Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Tian Yong Woon

In our Letter this week, we examine the ongoing Iran war through an Asian lens. Geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil prices have remained elevated (chart 1), despite early reports concerning the potential for a brief conflict that tempered investor caution. Attention has now centred on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil typically flows. With shipments now nearly halted (chart 2), much of the world’s energy flow has effectively stalled. While these developments have broad global implications, their impact on Asian economies is more nuanced. This partly reflects differences in energy mixes across the region (chart 3), as well as the historical relationship between oil prices and energy inflation (chart 4). Further compounding the challenges faced by Asian oil importers are currency effects: a broader risk-off turn in markets has weighed on several Asian currencies (chart 5), raising the local-currency cost of energy imports. Amid these pressures, several regional central banks are also set to decide on policy this week (chart 6), alongside major Western counterparts such as the Federal Reserve. Near-term rate cut expectations have been pushed back in many cases amid renewed inflation concerns, while in some Asian economies markets are even pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes.

**The Iran war**
Two weeks in, the Iran war continues with no clear end in sight. Crude oil prices and geopolitical risk therefore remain elevated, as shown in chart 1, despite earlier news that had briefly tempered investors’ heightened caution. Even reports that the 32 members of the International Energy Agency are set to release around 400 million barrels in emergency reserves have done little to curb the surge in crude prices. Latest reports indicate that reserves for Asia will be released immediately, while supplies for Europe and the Americas will only become available from the end of March. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to underpin elevated prices. The strait—currently blocked by Iran—handles roughly 20% of global oil flows. Iran has recently indicated that it may allow ships from certain countries to transit the waterway, though the situation remains fluid.

260316T1.jpg

To illustrate the severity of the current choke point along the Strait of Hormuz, chart 2 shows the 7-day moving average of shipping volumes through the strait, based on estimates from the International Monetary Fund. The average has effectively fallen to zero for tanker traffic, while overall shipping volumes—including container ships, dry bulk carriers, and other vessels—have also dropped close to zero. This stands in stark contrast to the multi-million metric tons of average daily shipping volumes typically observed previously. While such shipping estimates may not capture every vessel and can be partially circumvented, the broader picture remains clear: the flow of energy—the lifeblood of the global economy—is now severely constrained. Strategic reserves may provide a temporary buffer, but a prolonged blockage would be difficult to sustain indefinitely and could carry significant economic consequences.

260316T2.jpg

**Asia’s exposure**
While the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz presents a global oil supply shock, its implications for Asia are more nuanced. Among Asian economies, Singapore stands out with the highest oil share in primary energy consumption—nearly 90%—while China has the lowest at just above 18%, as shown in chart 3. Other Asian economies generally fall between 25% and 50%. China’s relatively low oil share largely reflects its greater reliance on other energy sources, particularly coal and renewables. A high oil share in energy consumption alone does not necessarily constitute a major vulnerability in the context of an external supply shock. However, many Asian economies remain heavily dependent on imported oil to meet their energy needs. The combination of these two factors—significant oil intensity in energy consumption and high reliance on oil imports—places much of the region in a potentially precarious position.

260316T3.jpg

Given Asia’s exposure to external oil supply shocks—now immediately visible through higher oil prices—one of the most direct channels of concern is inflation. Chart 4 illustrates what could potentially unfold, based on the historically strong correlations between Asian economies’ energy-related components of CPI inflation and Brent crude oil prices, which serve as a benchmark for global crude prices. In several cases, the relationship is substantial; for example, Thailand records a five-year correlation coefficient of nearly 0.8. That said, the relationship is not uniformly strong across all economies. In places such as Taiwan and South Korea, the correlation appears weaker, which may partly reflect domestic policy measures such as price caps—though the durability of such interventions remains uncertain. Moreover, governments that maintain energy subsidies or similar support mechanisms could face increasing fiscal strain, as higher global oil prices gradually erode available fiscal resources.

260316T4.jpg

As if these pressures were not sufficient, Asia’s oil importers also face compounding currency effects. The deterioration in the global geopolitical environment has dampened risk sentiment broadly, which often weighs on Asian currencies, as shown in chart 5. With crude oil prices surging due to the supply shock, and regional currencies weakening at the same time, the cost of importing oil is being pushed higher by two forces simultaneously—higher global oil prices and adverse exchange rate movements. This dual pressure further amplifies the burden on many Asian economies that rely heavily on imported energy.

260316T5.jpg

**Monetary Policy**
Given the ongoing surge in crude oil prices and the still-fluid situation in the Middle East, it is perhaps unsurprising that market expectations for near-term central bank easing in several economies have been dialled back. In some cases, expectations of rate hikes have even begun to build, largely on the back of renewed inflation concerns. That said, if the spike in crude oil prices ultimately proves transitory, there would in principle be little reason to delay policy easing if economic conditions warrant it. The key uncertainty now lies in how long the current surge will persist. Alongside the Americas and Europe, Asia will see a series of central bank decisions in the coming week, including from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia, and Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Unlike in many other economies—where investors largely expect policy rates to remain unchanged in the near term—markets are pricing in another 25-basis-point rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting this week. Meanwhile, expectations for near-term rate cuts by Bank Indonesia may be pushed further out, given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Iran and the associated inflation risks.

260316T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Strait Squeeze

Michael J. Moran

260313A.jpg

260313B.jpg

New figures show that real GDP grew 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, revised down from the initial estimate of 1.4%. The pace was among the slowest of the past few years, but the result was not especially troubling, as the government shutdown acted as a notable constraint on economic growth. Federal spending fell 16.7% in Q4, which subtracted 1.2 percentage points from the advance in GDP.

Other sectors performed reasonably well, as shown by an increase of 1.9% in final sales to private domestic purchasers, a pace close to the economy’s potential. (In addition to government spending, final sales to private domestic purchasers excludes the influence of net exports and inventory investment. It is sometimes called private domestic final demand – PDFD.)

Although the pace of PDFD was respectable, it was the source of most of the downward revision to GDP growth, with the new figure one-half percentage point off the initial estimate of 2.4%. Consumer spending made the largest contribution to the downward revision with growth slowing from 2.4% to a still-respectable 2.0%. Most of the adjustment occurred in the service area, but spending on services remained firm with growth of 2.7%.

Business investment spending also was lighter than previously believed (2.3% versus 3.7%). The revision, however, was not especially surprising, as most of the adjustment occurred in construction of business structures, which has been notably soft recently. Indeed, investment in structures has now declined for eight consecutive quarters. Business outlays for software also were revised downward (3.8% versus 7.1%), but spending on equipment was a bit firmer than previously estimated (3.9% versus 3.2%).

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

260313C.jpg

260313D.jpg

- Consumer spending and business investment in structures accounted for most of the adjustment.
- Although growth was slow, the results were not alarming.

Revised Q4 GDP: Downward Adjustment Leaves Modest Growth

260313F.jpg

260313G.jpg

The monthly report on personal income and consumption contains a wealth of information on the earnings and spending of households, but the price measures in the report are likely to receive more scrutiny than the other measures. Two factors account for the keen interest in the inflation figures. The price index for personal consumption expenditures is the measure targeted by the Federal Reserve, and thus observers will be using the index to assess the likelihood of additional easing in monetary policy. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East is drawing more attention to inflation risks.

The inflation results for January were unfavorable, with the headline measure increasing 0.3% and the index excluding food and energy advancing 0.4%. The latest results left the year-over-year advance in the headline measure at 2.8%, down one tick from the reading in January, but still noticeably above the Fed’s target of 2.0%. The increase in the core index pushed the year-over-year change to 3.1% versus 3.0% in January. Both the direction of change and the deviation from target are likely to weigh heavily on Fed deliberations.

The inflation readings in the report dampened firm increases in nominal income flows. Total personal income rose 0.4% in January, but this nominal advance translated to a real gain of only 0.2% (and rounding up to get there; 0.152% when calculated with more precision). Employee compensation was among the strongest components of income with an increase of 0.5% (0.2% in real terms). Dividend income was robust with an increase of 2.0%, but it is perhaps too early to get excited about the increase. Dividends also rose sharply in January of 2024 and 2025 only to be largely offset by declines in February. Hold the champagne until next month.

Although income growth was respectable, consumers spent cautiously. Nominal outlays rose 0.4%, but this translated to an increase of only 0.1% after adjusting for inflation. The modest increase sets the stage for a possibly slow quarter for consumer spending in the GDP accounts. If real outlays were to remain at their January level for the next two months, growth of real consumer spending in the GDP accounts would total only 0.8% in Q1. Increases of 0.2% in both February and March would lift growth of consumer spending to 1.6% in the first quarter, still noticeably shy of the 2.9% average in the prior three years.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

260313H.jpg

260313I.jpg

- The inflation rate for personal consumption expenditures remains uncomfortably high.
- Solid income growth, but cautious spending by households.

Personal Income and Consumption

Sandy Batten

260313X4.jpg

260313Y4.jpg

Total job openings increased 6.0% m/m (-6.5% y/y) to 6.946 million in January from 6.550 million in December (previously 6.542 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. General market expectations were for a slightly smaller increase. The job openings rate (the ratio of openings to nonfarm employment plus openings) rose to 4.2% from 4.0% in December. In January the number of unemployed fell while openings rose, meaning that the excess of unemployment over openings declined. Nonetheless, the number of unemployed continued to exceed the number of openings for the sixth consecutive month. Prior to that, openings had exceeded the number of unemployed since May 2021.

Private sector openings increased 6.3% m/m (+370k) to 6.198 million, also their highest level in three months. Accordingly, the private sector openings rate rose to 4.4% from 4.1% in December. Gains were widespread across major industries, led by 169k increase in finance openings, 150k increase in healthcare openings, 130k increase in retail trade openings, and 69k rise in manufacturing openings. In contrast, professional and business services openings fell 190k and construction openings slipped 14k. Total government openings increased 26k, almost all accounted for a 25k increase in state and local government openings.

Total hiring edged up 0.4% m/m (+1.1% y/y) to 5.294 million in January, the highest level since last June, from 5.272 million in December. The hiring rate was unchanged at 3.3%. Private sector hiring inched up 0.3% m/m (+15k) to 4.976 million in January, again the highest level since last June. The private sector hiring rate was also unchanged at 3.7%. Meaningful monthly gains were posted by construction (23k), manufacturing (13k), professional and business services (35k), and leisure and hospitality (23k). In contrast, hiring fell 35k in trade and transportation and declined 43k in financial services. Government hiring increased 7k with gains fairly equally distributed between federal and state/local.

Total separations declined 1.9% m/m (-2.6% y/y) to 5.105 million in January from 5.203 million in December. The separation rate slipped to 3.2% from 3.3% in December. Private separations fell 1.9% m/m (-91k) to 4.773 million in January with the private separation rate declining to 3.5% from 3.6%. By industry, the January decline was more than accounted for by a 119k decline in separations in trade and transportation.

Within private sector separations, private sector quits fell 90k, layoffs declined 40k while other separations increased 39k. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Amid the volatility, quits stabilized somewhat last year after having trended down since early 2022. However, they remain at historically low levels, indicating that the labor market has lost some of its previous dynamism. In contrast, layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. After trending up over the past couple of years, layoffs have generally fallen over the past few months. Low levels of quits indicate that there is more difficulty finding a new job, while falling layoffs indicate that firms are less willing to lay off existing workers.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Openings rose 6.0% m/m to 6.946 million, the highest reading in three months.
- Hiring edged up 0.4% m/m to 5.294 million, its highest level since last June.
- Separations fell 1.9% m/m to 5.105 million with declines in both Quits and Layoffs.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings and Hiring Increase in January

Winnie Tapasanun

260313V52.jpg

260313W52.jpg

New orders for durable goods were essentially unchanged m/m in January after a 0.9% decline in December (-1.4% initially) and a 5.4% rebound in November (unrevised), according to today’s advance report by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.5% m/m January increase. The year-on-year rate eased to 10.3% in January from 10.6% in December, remaining positive since January 2025 (3.8%). Durable goods orders excluding the transportation sector rose 0.4% (5.7% y/y) in January, the ninth straight m/m rise, after a 1.3% advance in December. Durable goods orders excluding defense grew 0.5% (9.5% y/y), the second m/m increase in three months, following a 1.9% December decline.

The flat reading in January durable goods orders reflected a 23.7% m/m plunge in orders for defense aircraft & parts following an 11.9% jump in December and a 3.5% increase in November. Orders for nondefense aircraft & parts rose 3.8% after a 22.8% December drop and a 98.2% November surge. Orders excluding aircraft grew 0.2% (6.5% y/y), the sixth m/m gain in seven months, after a 1.5% December rebound.

Durable goods orders for transportation fell 0.9% (+20.0% y/y) in January after a 4.6% fall in December, and orders for motor vehicles & parts fell 0.4% (+8.0% y/y) after a 1.4% December gain; both posted the third m/m decline in four months. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components slid 0.6% (+7.6% y/y) in January following two consecutive m/m increases. In contrast, orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.8% (7.8% y/y), the fifth straight m/m rise, after a 3.4% December increase. Orders for primary metals rose 0.8% (8.8% y/y) following a 2.4% December gain and two successive m/m declines. Orders for fabricated metal products climbed 0.6% (6.1% y/y), the seventh consecutive m/m gain, after a 0.9% December advance. Orders for all other durable goods increased 0.3% (1.5% y/y), up for the fifth consecutive month, after a 0.4% December gain. Machinery orders grew 0.2% (6.2% y/y), the ninth straight m/m rise, on top of a 0.3% December increase.

Capital goods orders fell 1.1% (+18.9% y/y) in January, the third m/m fall in four months, after a 3.2% decline in December. Nondefense capital goods orders rose 0.9% (17.4% y/y) following a 6.7% December decrease. Core capital goods orders (i.e., nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) were flat (+4.3% y/y) after a 0.8% December increase (the sixth straight m/m gain). Defense capital goods orders dropped 11.8% (+29.2% y/y), down for the third time in four months, following a 21.6% December rebound. Notably, core capital goods shipments (core capex shipments)—a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts—edged down 0.1% (+5.4% y/y), the first m/m easing since August, following a 1.0% December increase.

Shipments of all manufactured goods rose 0.5% (2.5% y/y) in January, the third m/m rise in four months, after a 0.7% gain in December. Durable goods shipments grew 0.6% (6.4% y/y), the fourth m/m gain in five months, after a 1.2% December rebound. Nondurable goods shipments rose 0.4% (-1.2% y/y) following a 0.1% December uptick and four consecutive m/m declines.

Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 0.8% (11.1% y/y) in January, the sixth straight m/m gain, after a 0.9% rise in December. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders increased 0.4% (1.9% y/y), also up for the sixth consecutive month, following a 0.4% December rise.

Manufacturing inventories inched up 0.1% (0.8% y/y) in January, the third successive m/m increase, after a 0.1% uptick in December. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (1.7% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month in January, while nondurable goods inventories dipped 0.1% (-0.5% y/y), the fourth m/m easing in five months, after a 0.2% December decline.

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260313X52.jpg

260313Y52.jpg

- Headline orders -0.04% (+10.3% y/y) in Jan.; -0.9% (+10.6% y/y) in Dec.
- Defense aircraft orders -23.7% m/m in Jan. vs. +11.9% in Dec.; nondefense aircraft & parts +3.8% vs. -22.8%.
- Transportation orders -0.9%, third m/m fall in four mths.; orders ex transportation +0.4%, ninth straight m/m rise.
- Core capital goods shipments -0.1% following four consecutive m/m gains.
- Durable goods shipments +0.6%; unfilled orders +0.8%; inventories +0.2%.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Flat in January, Driven by a Plunge in Defense Aircraft Orders

Robert Brusca

260313E.jpg

**Broad and severe weakness in European production**: industrial production data for the monetary union turned decidedly sour in January. All major production categories showed declines in January, including the headline series for production excluding construction and manufacturing output. There were also drops across the major manufacturing sectors—consumer goods, intermediate goods, and capital goods—as well as in both of the consumer sub categories of durable goods and nondurable goods. January was a really tough month for the industrial sector and the European monetary union.

**Sequential output weakness as well**: Output is not only falling in every category in January—and for two months in a row—but the sequential growth rates over 12 months, six months, and three months also show decelerations present for all of these categories of output except capital goods. That means the six-month growth rate is weaker than the 12-month growth rate, and the three-month growth rate is weaker than the six-month growth rate for six of seven of these categories—the exception is capital goods. And capital goods are a minor exception with the growth over three months only slightly stronger than over six months, and at that it's still a negative growth rate. It shows a decline in output, just a slower decline. There is no silver lining here, just clouds and rain.

**Quarter to date and more**: As if that's not enough, these are output data for January so we can calculate quarter-to-date growth rates in the first quarter. On that basis, all seven of these categories show output declining, and output is declining in all seven of these categories at a double-digit pace!  In addition, when we step back to compare growth rates over the last year with previous 12-month growth rates back to April 2006, a 20-year horizon, we find that all the growth rates in the table lie below their median rates of growth for this previous twenty-year span. Capital goods fare the best, with a percentile standing of its growth rate at its nearly 48th percentile, just slightly below its median, which lies at a ranking of 50%. The growth rates for consumer nondurables, for example, have had output growth weaker during this period, only 1.7% of the time. Consumer goods output has been weaker, only 3.8% of the time. Manufacturing output is in the bottom quartile among historically ranked growth rates. These are extremely bad and consistently poor rankings for industrial growth.

The table also offers up country-by-county data for January. Looking just at monetary union members, seven of twelve show output declines in January, but that compares to December, which was a strong month with only three of those members showing output declines. However, a month earlier, in November, eight monetary union members had shown output declines. There are sequential output declines reported by Germany, Spain, and Ireland over the last twelve-to-six-to-three months. Only Malta and Greece show output trends that are accelerating, and of course, these are two of the smaller monetary union countries. Seven monetary union countries show quarter-to-date output is declining early in this first quarter. Among the five countries showing output increasing, two of them showed double-digit growth rates in the new quarter and those two again are Malta and Greece. For the countries overall, only five of twelve have queue percentile standings of their earlier growth rates that are above their historic medians for the last 20 years. That list of five includes France, Malta, Greece, Portugal, and Austria.

The industrial data for Europe in January are decidedly downbeat and concerning. These numbers are being reported before hostilities in the Middle East began to ramp up and clearly before oil prices spurted higher. The European manufacturing sector is not digging itself out of the hole it fell into after COVID and the invasion of Ukraine. And after showing a hint of recovery, it now appears to be deep in the morass of economic weakness.

260313.jpg

Europe

EMU IP Trends Are Decidedly Negative

260312J50.jpg

260312K50.jpg

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) narrowed to $54.5 billion in January from a revised $72.9 billion in December (previously $70.3 billion), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The goods deficit declined to $81.8 billion from $99.3 billion while the services surplus widened slightly to $27.3 billion from $26.3 billion in December. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a deficit of $67.9 billion.

The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in goods narrowed to $83.9 billion (2017$) from $97.9 billion in December (previously $97.1 billion). However, the January figure was larger than the Q4 average, implying that the trade deficit is on course to subtract from overall GDP growth in Q1.

Exports of goods and services rebounded in January, rising 5.5% m/m (10.4% y/y) following a 1.6% monthly decline in December (previously -1.7% m/m). Goods exports (Census basis) jumped 8.2% m/m or $14.8 billion after a 3.0% m/m decline in December and a 5.2% monthly decline in November. However, 60% of the rebound in January was accounted for by an $8.8 billion increase in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals. Without the surge in these metal exports, the remainder of exports rose 3.5% m/m in January. Exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals are not included in the tabulation of GDP. Services exports increased 1.2% m/m (+6.3% y/y) in January on top of a 0.8% m/m increase in December.

By end use, the January jump in goods exports was unsurprisingly led by 15.1% m/m surge in exports of industrial supplies and materials. However, 94% of this increase was accounted for by the jump in exports of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals. Capital goods exports rose 8.8% m/m on top of a 4.2% increase in December. Exports of “other” goods surged 37.1% m/m, more than offsetting a 14.5% monthly decline in December and their first increase in four months. By contrast, auto exports slumped 6.0% m/m, their third consecutive monthly decline, and nonfood consumer goods exports ex autos plummeted 12.1% m/m, their third monthly decline in the past four months. For exports of services, travel declined for the first time in four months. Solid gains were posted by financial services, use of intellectual property, and other business services.

Imports of goods and services slipped 0.7% m/m (-11.3% y/y) in January, their first monthly decline in three months, after a 3.5% m/m rise in December and a 4.4% monthly gain in November. Goods imports (Census basis) fell 1.1% m/m in January, their first monthly decline in three months. Auto imports slumped 8.3% m/m, their fourth monthly decline in the past five months. Imports of nonfood consumer goods ex autos dropped 5.8% m/m in January, their third monthly decline in the past four months. Imports of industrial supplies fell 2.7% m/m following a 15.9% m/m surge in December. By contrast, capital goods imports jumped 3.1% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain, while imports of “other” goods surged 7.3% m/m. Imports of services edged up 0.3% m/m in January after a 2.7% monthly rise in December, Travel imports, construction service imports, imported intellectual property, and imported maintenance services fell while imports of other business services, insurance services, and imports of personal and recreational services posted solid gains.

By country, the goods trade deficit with China widened marginally to $12.5 billion in January from $12.4 billion in December. Exports to China jumped 11.5% m/m and imports from China rebounded, rising 5.3% m/m following monthly declines in both November and December. The trade deficit with the European Union narrowed markedly to $6.1 billion in January from $11.1 billion in December. Exports to the EU fell 3.2% m/m, their third monthly decline in the past four months, while imports from the EU plummeted 13.2% m/m, also their third monthly decline in the past four months. The deficit with Japan widened to $5.5 billion in January from $5.3 billion.

The international trade data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

260312L50.jpg

260312M50.jpg

- The deficit in goods and services narrowed to $54.5 billion in January from $72.9 billion in December
- Exports rebounded, rising 5.5% m/m in January after a 1.6% m/m decline in December.
- However, 60% of the exported goods rebound was in nonmonetary gold and other precious metals.
- Imports edged down 0.7% m/m following a 3.5% monthly jump in December.
- The goods deficit narrowed to $81.8 billion while the services surplus widened slightly to $27.3 billion.

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed More than Expected in January

260312F18.jpg

260312G18.jpg

Total housing starts unexpectedly rose 7.2% m/m in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million units following a downwardly revised 4.8% increase to 1.387 million in December (initially +6.2%; 1.404 mil.) and an upwardly revised 4.1% rise to 1.324 million in November (previously +3.9%; 1.322 mil.), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 1.350 million starts for January. The latest figure marked the biggest of three consecutive m/m gains and the fourth in five months as well as the highest level since February 2025. The year-on-year rate strengthened to +9.5% in January, the strongest y/y pace since July, after -8.4% in December and -1.7% in January 2025. Overall, starts remained 18.3% below the April 2022 peak of 1.820 million.

Single-family starts fell 2.8% (-6.5% y/y) to 935,000 in January, the first m/m drop since September, after a 3.3% rise to 962,000 in December (981,000 initially). They hit a low of 795,000 in November 2022 and previously reached a high of 1.218 million in November 2021 and a peak of 1.273 million in December 2020. Multi-family starts advanced 29.9% (54.2% y/y) to 552,000, the largest of three successive m/m increases and the highest level since May 2023, on top of an 8.1% December gain to 425,000 (423,000 initially). They reached a peak of 629,000 units in November 2022 and a high of 616,000 units in April 2022.

By region, January housing starts showed a mixed performance. Starts in the Northeast surged 47.4% (108.5% y/y) to 196,000 in January after a 13.6% drop in December, registering the largest m/m gain since September and the highest level since December 2022. Starts in the South recovered 11.4% (16.0% y/y) to 810,000, the third m/m increase in four months and the highest level since July, after a 2.8% December decline. In contrast, starts in the Midwest decreased 10.8% (-2.8% y/y) to 174,000 in January following a 15.4% rebound in December. Starts in the West fell 7.5% (-20.7% y/y) to 307,000, the third m/m fall in four months, after a 31.2% December jump. Notably, the South continued to lead all regions, accounting for 54.5% of total U.S. housing starts; the region previously peaked at 1.044 million in April 2022.

Total building permits, single-family permits, and multi-family permits all declined for the third time in four months in January. Total building permits fell 5.4% (-5.8% y/y) to 1.376 million in January, the lowest level since August, after a 4.8% rebound to 1.455 million in December. They remained well below a peak of 1.920 million in January 2022 and a high of 1.855 million in January 2021. Single-family permits slid 0.9% (-11.6% y/y) to a five-month-low 873,000 following a 1.7% December slide to 881,000. They reached highs of 1.243 million in both January 2022 and January 2021. Multi-family permits dropped 12.4% (+6.6% y/y) to 503,000 after a 16.7% December gain to 574,000. They reached a peak of 817,000 units in February 2023 and a high of 787,000 units in June 2022. Regionally, permits fell m/m in the West (-15.7%; -1.9% y/y), Northeast (-9.6%; +13.5% y/y), and South (-3.5%; -13.2% y/y), but increased m/m in the Midwest (+9.0%; +4.1% y/y).

The housing starts and building permits figures can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260312H18.jpg

260312I18.jpg

- Housing starts +7.2% (+9.5% y/y) to 1.487 mil. in Jan.; largest of three straight m/m gains.
- Multi-family starts at highest level since May ’23; single-family starts down for the first time in four mths.
- Starts m/m up in the Northeast (+47.4%) and South (+11.4%), but down in the Midwest (-10.8%) and West (-7.5%).
- Building permits at a five-month low, w/ declines in both single-family and multi-family permits.

U.S. Housing Starts Jump in January to an 11-Month High

large_260318J.jpg

medium_260318J.jpg

small_260318J.jpg

thumbnail_260318J.jpg

260318J.jpg

large_260318K.jpg

medium_260318K.jpg

small_260318K.jpg

thumbnail_260318K.jpg

260318K.jpg

The producer price index for February rose 0.7%, decidedly faster than the expected increase of 0.3%. The latest change followed noticeable increases in the prior three months, leaving a picture of a burgeoning upward trend. The year-over-year increase totaled 3.4%, a reading near the top of the recent range.

 Some of the surge in February was the result of sharp increases in the food and energy components, and their jumps might be attributed to normal random volatility. For example, the surge of 2.4% in food prices could be viewed as an offset to a drop of 1.4% in the prior month; food prices in the past 12 months are down 0.2% despite the February jump. Energy prices also are down on a year-over-year basis (-0.8%) despite a surge of 2.3% in February.
 
However. more than random volatility was in play in February (and other recent months), as core measures also have stirred. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.5% in February, matching the average advance in the prior three months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics avoids the use of the term “core” inflation, but it offers another measure designed to smooth the effects of prices that often move erratically (prices excluding food, energy, and trade services). The preferred measure of the BLS also rose 0.5 percent in February after an average increase of 0.3% in the prior three months. The traditional measure of core inflation rose 3.9% on a year-over-year basis, while the BLS measure advanced 3.5%.

Upward price pressure in recent months has been evident on both the goods and service sides. Prices of goods other than food and energy rose 0.3% in February following an average advance of 0.5% in the prior three months. Service prices rose 0.5% in February, matching the average increase in the November-January period. The year-over-year changes were brisk for both groupings: 4.3% for core goods and 3.8% for services.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

large_260318L.jpg

medium_260318L.jpg

small_260318L.jpg

thumbnail_260318L.jpg

260318L.jpg

large_260318M.jpg

medium_260318M.jpg

small_260318M.jpg

thumbnail_260318M.jpg

260318M.jpg

- The volatile food and energy components jumped...
- ...But other items also showed upward pressure.

February PPI: Troubling Inflation Figures

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

February PPI: Troubling Inflation Figures

Recent Commentaries

U.S. Factory Orders Up Marginally in January on Weak Defense Aircraft Orders

Featured Data Additions, March 18, 2026

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the March 13 Week

Germany’s ZEW Survey Sours

U.S. Industrial Production Edged Up in February

Canada’s Industrial Orders Falter

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints