Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

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DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

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Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

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Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

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HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

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MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

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Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

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Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Winnie Tapasanun

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Mortgage applications rose 9.2% w/w (27.4% y/y) in the week ending September 5 after a 1.2% decline in the week ending August 29, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the first w/w rise in four weeks, to the index level of 297.7, the highest since the week of July 8, 2022. Applications for loans to purchase a house grew 6.6% (22.0% y/y) in the September 5 week, the fifth w/w increase in six weeks, reversing a 3.1% drop in the previous week. Applications for loan refinancing jumped 12.2% (33.6% y/y) in the September 5 week following a 0.9% rise in the August 29 week and two consecutive w/w declines.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan decreased 15bps to 6.66% in the week ending September 5, the lowest since the October 4, 2024 week, after edging down to 6.81% in the week ending August 29; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 20bps to 5.84% in the September 5 week, the lowest since the September 27, 2024 week, after declining to 6.04% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans fell 11bps to 6.58% in the September 5 week after falling to 6.69% in the prior week, registering the lowest rate since 6.57% in the week of September 13, 2024 and below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on a 5-year ARM eased 2bps to 6.01% in the September 5 week, the lowest since March 14 week, after decreasing to 6.03% in the previous week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the week of September 13, 2024 but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 48.8% of total applications in the week ending September 5 after rising to 46.9% in the week ending August 29, marking the highest reading since October 4, 2024; however, those numbers remained below a peak of 55.7% in the week of September 20, 2024. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 9.2% in the September 5 week, the highest reading since the August 8 week, after increasing to 8.8% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 4.7% in the January 3 week but below its recent high of 9.6% in the April 11 week and a high of 10.7% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The average size of a mortgage loan rose 4.2% w/w (4.3% y/y) to $401,000 in the September 5 week, the highest level since the April 11 week, following a 0.5% rebound to $384,800 in the August 29 week. The average size of a purchase loan fell 0.6% (-0.3% y/y) to $423,800 in the September 5 week, the lowest level since the January 10 week, after a 1.6% fall to $426,400 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage advanced 11.7% (11.7% y/y) to $377,100 in the September 5 week, the highest level since the April 4 week, on top of a 4.8% rebound to $337,700 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications +6.6% w/w; refinancing loan applications +12.2% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans falls to 6.66%, the lowest since October.
- Average loan size rises to the highest level since the April 11 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rebound 9.2% in the September 5 Week

Robert Brusca

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Industrial output in the European Monetary Union predominantly fell in July as 14 early reporting monetary union or economic union members demonstrated that 8 of them logged a decline in industrial production in July. Sticking to only monetary union members there were declines in eight of the 12 reporting countries – a poor month for EMU members.

For the full group of 14, the median change was a decline of 1% in July after logging a median increase of 0.2% in June and a median decline of 0.7% in May. Sequential results show a median increase over 12 months of 1.4% for this full group, a median increase of 4.5% using annual rate data over six months, followed by a 3-month annual rate median decline of 1.4%.

Over three months among the 14 reporting countries, 8 show increases; however, 6 show declines and the declines that are logged are all large, starting with the decline of 21% at an annual rate in Luxembourg, 13.4% in Finland, a decline of 10.8% in Portugal, a decline of 8.3% in Malta, a decline of 4.9% in the Netherlands, and a decline of 4.3% in Ireland. The countries with declines over three months are experiencing very significant and sharp declines.

Looking at the full slate of countries over three months, only 33.3% are showing output accelerations. That compares to 6-months when only 30.8% show output accelerations; however, over 12 months compared to 12-months ago, two-thirds show output acceleration. Acceleration is fairly broad-based when compared to a year ago, but over shorter horizons there's clearly more of a slowing in progress and less uniformity.

This is early in the third quarter; industrial production data show six countries already indicating quarter-to-date output declines in Q3.

Interestingly, the queue rankings data executed on year-over-year growth rates have become much firmer and stronger. There are only 4 reporting countries in the table with year-over-year growth rates ranked below the 50th percentile: Finland, the Netherlands, Greece, and Luxembourg. The average of the median ranks is at the 64th percentile mark, a nearly top one-third standing. Germany, France and Italy have standings well into their respective 60th percentiles– for Germany, in the 70th percentile. IP growth in manufacturing is scoring out at a more resilient performance level despite the drift into recently weaker growth rates. This will be a trend worth watching.

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Europe

Euro Area IP Tends to Weaken in July

Tom Moeller

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5% (10.5%) to 100.8 in August after strengthening 1.7% to an unrevised 100.3 in July and easing 0.2% to 98.6 in June, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. Four of the ten index components increased last month. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index fell 4.1% (+1.1% y/y) to 93 after rising 9.0% in July.

The outlook for business conditions was mixed in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve stood at 34% last month after rising to 36% in July. A higher 12% expected higher real sales in six months, compared to 6% in July. A lessened 14%, compared to 16% in July, of respondents indicated that now was a good time to expand the business. The figure remained up from 4% last September.

Plans to make capital outlays eased to 21% of firms after rising to 22% in July. Plans to add to inventories were unchanged at 1% of survey respondents, having been negative or zero early in the year. The index of expected credit conditions held steady with five of the prior six months at -4%. It remained up from a low of -11 in November 2023. On the labor front, the percent planning to increase employment edged up to 15% from 14% in July. The increase was to the highest level since February. It was increased from a low of 12% in both March and May, but stood substantially below its high of 32% in August 2021. A lessened 43% of businesses reported few or no qualified workers to fill job openings in August, down from the most recent high of 50% in June. These readings remained below a high of 56% in August of last year.

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The net percent of firms reporting higher earnings improved to -19% last month after holding steady at 22% in July. The figure was increased from the August 2024 low of -37%.

On the pricing front, the net percent raising their average selling prices fell to 21% last month from 24% in July. It had grown to 32% in February. The percentage planning to raise prices declined to 26% in August, down from a 32% high in June. Worker compensation improved as a net 29% of respondents lifted compensation during the last three months versus 27% in the last survey. Compensation gains peaked at 50% of firms in January 2022. A higher net 20% of firms are making plans to raise worker compensation in the next three months, below November’s high of 28%.

Taxes were reported by a steady 17% of member firms as the single most important issue facing small businesses. Also steady was the 11% citing inflation as the most important problem. Other major concerns were the cost of labor reported by 9% of firms and government requirements, also at 9%.

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Sales & employment expectations improve.
- Economic & business expansion plans ease.
- Percent raising prices and price expectations decline.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Improves in August

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades rose to $3.32 per gallon (-1.2% y/y), on average, last week after rising to $3.30 per gallon one week earlier. Gasoline prices are at the highest level since the fourth week of June, and above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel increased to $3.77 per gallon (5.9% y/y) last week after rising to $3.73 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $63.73 per barrel (-8.4% y/y) in the week ended September 5 after rising in the prior week to $64.16 per barrel. Prices remained below a high of a $74.17 during the third week of June. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $62.26 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude fell to $66.85 per barrel (-11.2% y/y) in the week of September 5 from $67.77 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. The price yesterday was $65.44 per barrel.

Natural gas prices rose an average $2.97/mmbtu (47.0% y/y) in the week ended September 5, after steadying at an average $2.85/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.10 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 0.8% y/y in the four weeks ending August 29, following a 1.1% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products rose 2.5% y/y in the four weeks ending August 29, after a 2.5% y/y increase in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.8% y/y in the four weeks ending August 29, after a 3.0% y/y gain in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories eased 0.3% y/y in the week ending August 29 after rising 1.8% y/y in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 22.5% y/y in the week of August 29, after falling 23.8% y/y in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 3.4% y/y in the week of August 29 after a 2.4% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 24.1 days in the week of August 29 from 24.6 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil edged higher to 24.7 days in the week of August 29 from 24.5 days in the prior week and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by	 the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices increase to late-June high.
- Crude oil prices ease after prior week’s increase.
- Natural gas prices rise to four-week high.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed Last Week

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The end of summer is turning out to be a difficult time for France even though industrial output is in a seemingly solid trend. Output in June rose by 3.5%, it did that after a weak May when output fell by 1.1% and now in July output is falling by 1.6%. By itself, the manufacturing trend is simply not that worrisome, but it is built upon somewhat more convoluted trends with July’s drop. Add this complication to a political environment that is quite difficult as in real time, in September, France's government is being dissolved, the Prime Minister is being dismissed, and President Macron is under pressure. There is a decidedly split and fractured legislature to deal with as he is going to have to appoint yet another prime minister, the second lost government in less than a year. Macron continues to resist calling elections or stepping down himself.

France has been called out by the markets for the size of its government sector and its debt as Macron’s earlier tax cuts produced fiscal deficits not growth. French deficits continue to push up bond yields toward levels being paid by Italy. The U.K. is also under pressure for its substantial indebtedness and its inability to get control of its economy and generate growth. None of these are new trends and certainly not foreign to anyone in the United States where large fiscal deficits, concerns about future fiscal deficits, and President Trump's own concern about deficits as exhibited by his attempt to try to push interest rates down to reduce the interest cost of the debt. This has pushed the fiscal budgeting process into the mainstream of making monetary policy creating a clash over central bank independence in the United States- with reverberations abroad.

The best way to keep debt or the size of the government sector from becoming a problem is to control it and none of these governments seem to have been able to do that. A country that is going to rely on debt and increasing indebtedness is pushing the day of reckoning out on the future generations. That becomes increasingly unpalatable as population growth has been slowing. Slowing population growth and rising debt levels are an extremely bad combination and yet we see these as real international trends.

In France, the one-year trend for industrial production in manufacturing is still relatively solid at 1.5% growth over 12 months, stepping up to 4.5% at an annual rate over six months and up to 8.2% annualized over three months. On the face of these figures, if they hold up, the progression for growth is pretty good. However, when we see what produces these results in the table, which is a sharp drop in May and July, with a sharper increase sandwiched in between, we are left wondering whether the sequential trend is going to hold up at all. Consumer durable goods output trends are one of the reasons that that output trend in manufacturing is so strong with positive growth in May, June and July; the sector logs 12-month growth of 3.7%, 6-month growth at 9.2% at an annualized rate, and 3-month growth at a stunning 17% annual rate. That would seem to be a lot of strength to carry the day, but consumer nondurables output trends point in the opposite direction with -0.6% over 12 months, a -1.2% annual rate decline over six months and then -5.7% at an annual rate over three months. The capital goods sector sides with growth with a 4% rate over 12 months and an 8.5% pace over six months and that largely holds up at 8.1% over three months. However, the sequential growth rate for intermediate goods shows a drop in output of 0.8% over 12 months, a nice rebound with a 3.9% annual rate over six months and then the declining pace of 1% annualized over three months – a bit less coherence.

Transportation output in France is considerably stronger than the trends in motor vehicle registrations. Even though output in the auto sector continues to be quite firm to strong, registrations are weakening. That can’t be good.

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France is clearly in a difficult spot with President Macron also caught between a political rock and a hard place given the importance of Algerians in the French economy and given the conflict in Israel involving Hamas in the Gaza Strip. His political base domestically is severely fractured, and economic performance now is spotty. One good bit of news for the European Monetary Union is that, while inflation runs mildly over the top of its target, it is not accelerating; the ECB seems content to let inflation set at a pace slightly above its target as long as it continues to mind its business there.

It's certainly a bad time for France to be dealing with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine and with these political divisions at home they're deepened by those kinds of divisions as well as an economy that's showing signs of stress, signs that have been inevitable to show up in the wake of the recovery from COVID since governments did so much to try to bail their economies out. The unwinding of those actions has been destined, for some time, to create management problems for the economy and for continuing growth globally. For the time being, governments have managed the situation by tolerating inflation overshoots and pretending that having inflation over target is fine. However, Trump's tariffs seem to be calling the bluff on that to some extent. Tariffs will exacerbate inflation pressures and probably chill growth prospects at least by increasing uncertainty in the short run. This means that the risk of a downturn has risen but it's not clear that it's risen to a point that should be concerning although it certainly could be. It's more likely to be an issue and economies that have continued to place a great deal of emphasis on government efforts to sustain growth.

The next few months could be pivotal for global growth not just in France, as we begin to see what challenges tariffs are going to propose for local economies in terms of adversely affecting growth and adversely affecting inflation. The problems have been manageable so far, will that continue? That essentially is the question for the outlook.

France

French IP Is Expanding But Had a Tough Month

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Consumer credit outstanding increased $16.0 billion (2.2% y/y) during July after rising $9.6 billion in June, revised from $7.4 billion, and $7.9 billion in May, revised from $5.1 billion. A $10.3 billion July rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a percentage of disposable personal income, consumer credit outstanding of 22.4% in July was steady with June and compared to 22.9% one year earlier. It reached a high of 26.4% during all of 2017. The figures are reported by the Federal Reserve Board.

In July, revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, rose $10.5 billion (3.1% y/y) after rising $0.8 billion in June, revised from a $1.0 billion decline, and falling $1.6 billion in May, revised from down $3.8 billion. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions fell a steady 2.3% y/y. Revolving credit held by finance companies fell 13.8% y/y in July after falling 15.0% y/y in June, while credit union debt rose a steady 4.1% y/y in July.

Nonrevolving credit outstanding rose $5.5 billion (1.8% y/y) in July after increasing $8.8 billion in June, revised from $8.4 billion, and increasing $9.5 billion in May, revised from $8.9 billion. Nonrevolving credit held by depository institutions declined 7.7% y/y in July after falling 8.1% y/y in June. Finance company debt holdings fell 1.3% y/y after a 0.4% slip, while credit union holdings rose a steady 11.1% y/y in July. Nonrevolving debt of the federal government rose 3.9% y/y in July following a 4.1% y/y rise in June.

The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Notable gain in credit usage follows two months of moderate growth.
- Revolving credit picks up as nonrevolving credit eases.

U.S. Consumer Credit Surges in July

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The **Industrial Materials Price Index** from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) declined 1.0% during the last four weeks, after weakening 1.9% in the prior four weeks. Despite these declines, prices rose 0.5% during the last twelve months. During July, factory sector production held steady but rose an improved 1.4% y/y.

**Crude Oil & Benzene** group costs continued to lead the overall price weakening as they moved 1.9% lower (-10.3% y/y) in the latest four week period. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined 1.7% to $64.27 per barrel and remained 8.9% lower y/y. It had fallen to a low of $58.50 per barrel in the second week of May. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, weakened 6.5% (-31.7% y/y). Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index weakened 0.9% (+1.1% y/y) during the last four weeks.

Lower **Miscellaneous** group prices followed with a 4.0% decline in the latest four week period, but prices remained up 1.8% y/y. Lumber prices fell 21.2% (+10.2% y/y) during the last four weeks, and tallow costs (used in the soap industry) declined 3.9% (+34.4% y/y). Moving higher, the cost of rubber rose 2.8% in four weeks, but fell 18.6% y/y.

**Metals** group prices rose 1.7% (4.1% y/y) over four weeks. Copper scrap prices rose 2.3% (9.6% y/y). Aluminum prices increased 1.3% in four weeks (9.1% y/y), and the cost of zinc moved up 3.8% in four weeks, and did the same y/y. Tin prices rose 4.8% (13.1% y/y) in four weeks. Lead prices edged up 0.7% (-2.3% y/y) but steel scrap costs fell 1.9% (-6.3% y/y) over the same period.

Prices in the **Textile** group moved 0.5% higher (1.6% y/y) during the last four weeks. Burlap costs surged 6.9% (22.2% y/y), but cotton prices fell 1.3% (-3.4% y/y).

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Decline extends last month’s weakness. 
- Crude oil costs & lumber costs decline.
- Metals prices improve.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline in Latest Four Weeks

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we review the state of play in Southeast Asia and Australia. In Thailand, political uncertainty lingers after the removal of former Prime Minister Paetongtarn, with investors now eyeing fresh elections in the coming months. The ongoing political flux has only deepened concerns over Thailand’s persistent economic underperformance relative to regional peers (chart 1). Indonesia, too, has faced recent political turmoil, as protests over lawmakers’ housing allowances turned violent. While tensions have since eased and financial markets partially recovered (chart 2), the episode highlighted the fragility of investor confidence.

Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, some economies are pressing ahead. Malaysia has made significant strides in establishing itself as a global tech hub, supported by robust direct investment flows (chart 3). Vietnam, likewise, continues to position itself as a manufacturing and electronics powerhouse. Its strong export performance has driven growth but also drawn scrutiny, particularly as the US trade deficit with Vietnam has widened alongside rising imports (chart 4).

In the Pacific, Australia has shown encouraging signs, with Q2 GDP growth outperforming expectations on the back of stronger household consumption (chart 5). This has bolstered expectations that the RBA will pause rate cuts at its month-end meeting. Even so, close attention remains on the labour market (chart 6), potential headwinds from US tariffs, and a broader productivity challenge.

**Thailand**
Thailand continues to struggle to regain its footing, weighed down by ongoing political turmoil. Former Prime Minister Paetongtarn was removed from office by the Constitutional Court in late August, following her July 1st suspension over a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. In her place, lawmakers elected former Deputy Prime Minister Anutin as the new premier. However, as part of the deal that secured his appointment, Anutin has pledged to dissolve parliament within four months and call a general election. This political upheaval compounds Thailand’s broader economic challenges. Growth has persistently lagged behind its Southeast Asian peers (chart 1), with tourism—a key revenue source—stalled and still short of pre-pandemic levels. At a time when deeper reforms are needed to unlock the country’s full potential, Thailand instead faces prolonged political flux, leaving policy clarity and direction uncertain even as neighbours forge ahead.

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**Indonesia**
Thailand is not alone in Southeast Asia in grappling with political turmoil. Indonesia has recently faced its own unrest, as initially peaceful demonstrations against housing allowances for lawmakers turned violent after a motorbike taxi driver was fatally struck by a police vehicle during an earlier rally in Jakarta. Although protests have since subsided, the turmoil comes on the heels of policy moves that have already unsettled some investors. Concerns have centred on the fiscal strain from large-scale spending programs such as Prime Minister Prabowo’s free school meals initiative. While the program is well-intentioned—aimed at reducing poverty and improving child development—its hefty cost implies spending cuts elsewhere and higher taxes, fuelling unease. Markets have reflected these concerns, with Indonesian equities and the rupiah selling off during the recent protests, though both have staged a partial rebound as tensions eased (chart 2).

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**Malaysia**
While Thailand and Indonesia have been grappling with political woes, other Southeast Asian economies have pressed ahead. Malaysia, for instance, has made notable strides in establishing itself as a global tech hub, with significant advances in semiconductors—largely centred in Penang—and, more recently, in electric vehicles, where Malacca is emerging as a key industry hub. These developments have been fuelled in part by strong foreign investment flows, which, while healthy in recent years (chart 3), slipped to a five-year low in Q2 2025 on a directional basis. Still, Malaysia’s semiconductor push remains robust: Prime Minister Anwar announced earlier this year that the country had already secured more than 63 billion ringgit ($14.9 billion) in semiconductor investments, mostly from foreign sources, under its National Semiconductor Strategy—less than a year after the scheme’s launch. More broadly, Malaysia has pressed ahead on multiple fronts in its drive toward high-income status by 2030—an ambition that is looking increasingly attainable.

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**Vietnam**
Moving to Vietnam, the economy—like Malaysia’s—has been pushing hard to establish itself as a manufacturing and electronics hub. Vietnam continues to outpace its ASEAN peers in growth and shares Malaysia’s ambition of reaching high-income status, though with a later target of 2045. Its export boom has been central to past success but has also drawn scrutiny, particularly as the US trade deficit with Vietnam has widened with rising imports (chart 4). As a result, Vietnam now faces a more constrained trade environment even as it relies on exports as a key growth driver. For now, Vietnam has avoided a worst-case scenario with the US: a recent trade deal reduced the reciprocal tariff rate from a potential 46% to 20%, though US-perceived “transshipments” will still be hit with a 40% tariff. Beyond navigating this delicate global landscape, Vietnam is also instigating deep structural reforms—such as strengthening the role of the private sector—to sustain growth and meet its long-term development goals.

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**Australia**
Moving to the Pacific, Australia is among the few economies relatively insulated from US tariffs, facing only the baseline 10% rate under the revised tariff schedule that took effect in early August. On the domestic front, Australia’s economy outperformed expectations in Q2, with real GDP growth accelerating to 1.8% y/y. The pickup was driven by stronger household consumption (chart 5), offering an encouraging signal for the outlook and easing earlier concerns about economic momentum—perhaps also suggesting that the central bank’s earlier rate cuts are beginning to take effect. 

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Turning to monetary policy, the recent upbeat data have reinforced expectations that the RBA will hold rates steady at its September meeting, after cutting a cumulative 75 bps since the start of the year. That said, markets are still pricing in further easing down the line, supported by Australia’s disinflationary trend (chart 6) and lingering downside risks from weaker global demand amid US trade tariffs. Another key dimension is the labour market, which remains tight but has shown signs of softening in recent months. A broader concern is productivity, which has stagnated in recent quarters, raising questions about the sustainability of real wage growth.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Political Woes

Andrew Cates

**The Blue Chip Growth Consensus**
Consensus growth expectations for 2026 have been marked down across most major economies since January, and the chart shows how broad-based the rethink has become. The steepest downgrades have been made to Canada, Taiwan, and the US, while China is little changed. The common thread is a tougher trade environment shaped by the expanded US tariff regime. Those pressures are being compounded by wider global constraints—geopolitical instability, lingering investment-screening and export-control frictions, and a still-elevated cost of capital.

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**US payroll revisions**
Consistent with that thinner 2026 outlook, fresh BLS payroll benchmarks now indicate a materially cooler US jobs backdrop. BLS’s preliminary benchmark revision—which aligns the monthly payroll survey to unemployment-insurance tax records—marked US nonfarm employment down by 911,000 jobs (-0.6%) in the year to March 2025, pointing to a materially softer hiring backdrop than previously believed. This has been flagged as the largest preliminary downgrade on record, with the biggest cuts concentrated in trade (retail/wholesale), leisure & hospitality, professional & business services, and manufacturing, while government saw only a minor trim. As the chart below shows, the revised series (dark line) now tracks noticeably below the previously published path (light line) from late-2024 onward, implying slower momentum through mid-2025. The BLS stresses this is preliminary—based on QCEW administrative data—with final benchmarking due with the 2026 annual update, but the signal adds to the softer tone from recent payroll reports. Markets and forecasters are treating the revision as confirmation that job growth had cooled earlier and more broadly than the headline prints had suggested.

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**Healthcare employment**
Even with the payroll benchmark revision pointing to a softer hiring backdrop, one engine kept humming: healthcare. The question, then, isn’t just how many jobs were added—it’s where they came from. As the chart shows, employment growth across many advanced economies has been disproportionately concentrated in healthcare and social care. Since end-2023, the sector has surged by roughly 5%–6% in the US, UK, and Japan—three to four times the pace of overall employment—pushing healthcare’s share of total jobs toward 14%–15% (gold diamonds in chart). The euro area is the notable laggard, with more muted gains in both healthcare and aggregate payrolls. Demographics are arguably the main culprit: ageing populations, post-pandemic treatment backlogs, and rising long-term-care needs continue to ratchet up demand for staff. But composition matters: healthcare tends to have lower measured productivity and limited tradability, so its growing weight props up headline employment while diluting aggregate productivity growth and tightening fiscal space (given the sector’s heavy public funding and regulation). In short, the resilience of headline jobs is increasingly a healthcare story, even as cyclical, tradable sectors remain softer.

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**China’s trade**
China’s August trade print reinforced the divergence in its export map—weakness to the US, strength to ASEAN. Headline exports rose 4.4% y/y in dollar terms (slowest in six months) while imports edged up by 1.5%, leaving a hefty $102bn surplus. But beneath the top line, shipments to the US plunged 33% y/y, whereas exports to ASEAN jumped 22.5% y/y. Accompanying commentary tied the split to fading support from the brief US tariff “truce,” the drag from new and prospective duties, and Beijing’s push to deepen ASEAN ties—including an accelerated upgrade to the China-ASEAN FTA—as firms re-route supply chains and sales toward the region. The message for global demand: China’s export engine is still running, but is being rebalanced toward ASEAN and away from the US, with the composition shift muting the impulse to US manufacturing while supporting Southeast Asia’s role in Chinese supply networks.

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**Private sector indebtedness**
While financial markets often tend to fixate on public debt when judging national solvency—via spreads, ratings chatter, and rising bond yields—the historical trigger for many financial crises is excessive private-sector leverage (households and non-financial corporates) colliding with tighter credit. The chart underscores why France merits heightened attention right now: its private non-financial debt stock sits well above peers—near 280% of GDP—far higher than the euro-area average (~200%), Germany (~180%), the UK (~150%) and the US (~115%). With France also navigating fresh political instability this week, the vulnerability channel to watch is less the sovereign’s flow deficit and more the balance-sheet sensitivity of firms and households to weaker growth and refinancing needs in a bank-centric system. By contrast, the UK and US enter with lower private leverage (and, in the US, deeper market-based intermediation), implying a smaller amplification risk even if gilts or Treasuries cheapen.

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**Global supply chain pressures**
Pivoting from balance-sheet risks to the flow side of inflation, the much-feared tariff-driven squeeze on supply chains hasn’t materialised. In the run-up to, and after, recent US tariff packages—covering Chinese EVs, batteries, solar inputs and broader manufacturing goods—commentators warned of renewed bottlenecks, costly re-routing via third countries, longer lead times, and a fresh wave of “landed-cost” inflation. The chart suggests otherwise. The NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (dark line) remains close to zero, back at pre-pandemic norms despite those policy shocks, while Citi’s Global Inflation Surprise Index (light line) hovers around/below zero, indicating price data are no longer consistently overshooting forecasts. In short, tariff headlines haven’t yet translated into broad supply stress: logistics capacity appears ample and pass-through contained. Risks remain—energy spikes, shipping disruptions, or a wider tariff net—but for now the supply-side impulse to inflation looks neutral, not acute.

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Financial markets have spent the week recalibrating after last Friday’s much weaker-than-expected US payrolls data: government bond yields have declined sharply, while equity markets have remained perky off hopes of a gentler policy path and still-resilient earnings. Even so, the medium-term growth lens has dimmed—since January, consensus GDP forecasts for 2026 have been marked down across most major economies, reflecting a tougher trade regime and geopolitical frictions (chart 1). Turning to the data, the BLS’s preliminary payroll benchmark revision shaved 911k jobs from US employment from April 2024 to March 2025, confirming the idea of a broader cooling in hiring (chart 2). Within that softer backdrop, the composition of job creation has tilted further toward healthcare and social care - not just in the US - supporting headcount but possibly diluting aggregate productivity (chart 3). Elsewhere, China’s latest trade print highlighted a continued rotation of exports away from the US toward other Asian economies (chart 4). On vulnerabilities, France’s private-sector debt leverage—well above peers—underscores that crises more often spring from private balance sheets than sovereign ones (chart 5). And, finally, fears that new US tariffs would reignite supply-chain pressures continue to look overstated, at least for now (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Labouring the Point

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