Viewpoints

The global spread of COVID-19 represents a classic example of a supply shock. In this case, the factor of production affected is labor. Despite the advance of artificial intelligence, global production of goods and services still [...]

Last weeks' sharp decline in the equity market was both historic and unusual. In a span of 5 trading days, the S&P 500 index dropped 11.5%, one of the largest single week declines on record. And what is also unusual about last week's [...]

A large number of US companies are relying on accounting gimmicks to strip out various costs in order to make reported profits appear to be better (or losses less small) than actually is the case. Once again the biggest adjustment [...]

Price targeting has failed as a monetary policy experiment, forcing policymakers to now consider a new process to achieve its price stability mandate. Policymakers are considering shifting to an "average" inflation rate over a span of [...]

Analysts and investors have been betting on a rebound in operating profits for 2020, even though profits are running up against a powerful (negative) trend in the annals of business cycles. New events on the international side of [...]

The charts below show the behavior of some important measures of economic performance. Generally, the time period shown in the charts starts in the early 1950s and runs through the end of 2019. In some cases, the data are not [...]

The equity market of 2020 has some of the lofty valuation features that showed up at the peak of 2000 cycle. Yet, a key difference is the accommodative stance of monetary and fiscal policies nowadays versus the restrictive stance of [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for December indicate increased divergence in activity across the nation. Over the last 12 months, 27 states report increases in their indexes in the 2 to [...]