Viewpoints

Is it possible for a policy recession to occur when successive rounds of policy-stimulus have worked to extend the economic cycle and the policy-fuel runs out or cannot be provided in the same scale? We may soon find out. The current [...]

In September, payroll employment rose close to consensus estimates and the jobless rate dropped to a 50-year low, easing fears, at least for the moment, of a broad slump in hiring and a deep economic slowdown. Yet, the employment [...]

BEA has released estimates of current-dollar consumer spending by state for calendar year 2018, along with revised figures for earlier years. It's useful to keep in mind what these figures are and are not: 1. As noted, they are annual [...]

The profits puzzle is no more. A recent report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) stated that the primary reason that the GDP measure of operating profits does not show the "large run-up in profits" in other "popular measures" [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for August show some increased dispersion and, overall, some signs of softening in economic growth. Over the last 12 months, 29 states show increases in [...]

Operating profits for the overall economy have been essentially flat since 2014. Yet, during the same 5-year period operating profits for the S&P 500 companies are estimated to be up by a third. Taken at face value, the profits data [...]

State labor markets were mixed in August. Five states experienced statistically significant increases in payroll employment, with 3 (Arizona, Georgia and Kansas) .4 percent or higher. California had the largest numerical gain, but the [...]

The August report from the Institute of Supply Management on the manufacturing sector showed a sharp drop in overall activity, with very few firms reporting gains in new orders and production. The manufacturer's purchasing managers' [...]