Viewpoints

With each passing day, the failure of Congress and the Administration to reach a deal on extending fiscal stimulus creates a bigger and bigger hole in consumer cash flow. So far investors have brushed off the stalemate. But that’s a [...]

What follows are my comments on various US economic data that have been released recently. Let's start with July 2020 nominal retail sales. As shown in Chart 1, the level of July nominal retail sales exceeded its pre-COVID level set [...]

Retail sales hit new record highs in June and again in July. Record retail sales reflect a new normal in consumer spending patterns. Bans and restrictions emanating from the pandemic have boosted retail sales while curtailing spending [...]

Yesterday's release of Q2 GDP data in the UK has generated a more complete global picture of the economic devastation that's been generated by the Coronavirus pandemic. UK GDP specifically fell by 20.4% in Q2 which is the worst slump [...]

Failure to reach a compromise on a broad federal stimulus plan creates a big "hole" in consumer’s cash flow. The "hole" is so big it raises the risk of substantial reduction, if not a recession, in consumer spending in the coming [...]

With negotiations over new federal stimulus deadlocked, President Trump signed four executive measures that circumvent Congress's constitutional authority to tax and spend. Chaos in governing has been a trademark of the Trump [...]

In the movie Jurassic Park, there is a scene in which a jeep carrying the movies' 'stars' is fleeing a T-Rex. As the driver looks in the rearview mirror, you see plainly the warning that 'objects are closer than they appear.' [...]

Back when I was employed at the Chicago Fed, some of us from the economic research department and the legal department would gather in the cafeteria for afternoon coffee (not to mention morning coffee and lunch). I remember one [...]