Viewpoints

With negotiations over new federal stimulus deadlocked, President Trump signed four executive measures that circumvent Congress's constitutional authority to tax and spend. Chaos in governing has been a trademark of the Trump [...]

In the movie Jurassic Park, there is a scene in which a jeep carrying the movies' 'stars' is fleeing a T-Rex. As the driver looks in the rearview mirror, you see plainly the warning that 'objects are closer than they appear.' [...]

Back when I was employed at the Chicago Fed, some of us from the economic research department and the legal department would gather in the cafeteria for afternoon coffee (not to mention morning coffee and lunch). I remember one [...]

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated that Q2 Nominal GDP declined 34.3% annualized, the largest quarterly drop in our lifetime. On March 12, I penned the article "Investors Should Brace for a Record Decline in GDP". Never [...]

At the end of Q2, the market valuation of domestic companies relative to nominal GDP exceeded the tech bubble peak of Q1 2000. In other words, "2020 is the Most Overvalued Equity Market in Our Lifetime". Domestic Market Capitalization [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes show considerable disparity. Two states (Utah and Arkansas) actually saw increases from March to June. On the other side, the figures for Hawaii and Massachusetts [...]

The recent re-opening of Europe's economies from government-induced lockdowns has unsurprisingly triggered a revival in their economic fortunes. Many non-traditional high frequency data points for economic activity are now on the move [...]

Back-to-back strong monthly gains in retail sales in May and June and a powerful rebound in the equity markets in Q2 create the impression the recession is over. But the recessionary environment is only delayed, hidden by the record [...]