A super-fast rise in commodity prices is underway. It should not be a surprise that as the world economy re-opens, commodity prices start to rise to reflect more robust demand conditions. But what has been surprising is the speed and [...]
Global| Mar 04 2021
Super Fast Commodity Price Cycle Is A Harbinger Of Sudden Jump In Inflation
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Global| Mar 01 2021
Pioneer of the Inflation Targeting Adds Asset Prices to Its Framework, While The Fed Adds More Fuel
Starting March 1, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RNZ) will consider the impact on housing prices when it debates monetary policy decisions. In doing so, RNZ becomes the first central bank to acknowledge that monetary policy [...]
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Global| Feb 22 2021
Conversation With BLS About Price Mismeasurement For Housing
Recently, I shared my concerns about price mismeasurement for owner-occupied housing with a senior official who works in the Division of Consumer Prices at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The senior official agreed with me, [...]
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Global| Feb 19 2021
Vaccination and Adaptation
The performance of the world economy in coming months remains hostage to a number of factors but the evolution of the COVID-19 virus is the most important. As we discuss below, however, recent evidence on the virus front has been very [...]
by:Andrew Cates
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Global| Feb 12 2021
Heading the Right Way
Some positive trends Amidst the daily barrage of bad news stories that pervade the international media, a number of positive trends have unfolded in recent weeks. For example: • At the global level there has been a sharp retreat in [...]
by:Andrew Cates
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Global| Feb 04 2021
Fiscal Stimulus: How Much Is Too Much? Boom/Bust!
Suppose Congress passes something close to Biden's Administration stimulus proposal of $1.9 trillion. In that case, that will lift the cumulative amount of fiscal stimulus in the past 12 months to $5 trillion---three tranches $2.2 [...]
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Global| Feb 03 2021
Economic Performance Has Been OK Despite Difficult Headlines
January was riddled with some troublesome headlines. Political instability engulfed a number of countries including the US, Italy, the Netherlands – and via vaccine concerns – the European Commission. Worries about COVID mutations in [...]
by:Andrew Cates
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Global| Jan 26 2021
Two Decades of Price Mismeasurement & Policy Confusion
Two decades of price mismeasurement and policy confusion have left everyone bewildered and puzzled over inflation. Inaccuracies in inflation measurement are far from being merely academic; it reopens the fundamental issue of inflation [...]
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