Viewpoints: July 2020

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated that Q2 Nominal GDP declined 34.3% annualized, the largest quarterly drop in our lifetime. On March 12, I penned the article "Investors Should Brace for a Record Decline in GDP". Never [...]

At the end of Q2, the market valuation of domestic companies relative to nominal GDP exceeded the tech bubble peak of Q1 2000. In other words, "2020 is the Most Overvalued Equity Market in Our Lifetime". Domestic Market Capitalization [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes show considerable disparity. Two states (Utah and Arkansas) actually saw increases from March to June. On the other side, the figures for Hawaii and Massachusetts [...]

The recent re-opening of Europe's economies from government-induced lockdowns has unsurprisingly triggered a revival in their economic fortunes. Many non-traditional high frequency data points for economic activity are now on the move [...]

Back-to-back strong monthly gains in retail sales in May and June and a powerful rebound in the equity markets in Q2 create the impression the recession is over. But the recessionary environment is only delayed, hidden by the record [...]

There was some convergence in unemployment across the nation in June, a month in which 42 states saw significant declines in their unemployment rates, while 5 saw increases. Only 10 states had unemployment rates above 10 percent, with [...]

The coronavirus has distorted everything and that is not going to stop. It is also hard to tell what kind of rebound to expect and once we get one to tell if it will last. This is because of the hokey-pokey policy of deferring to the [...]

Japan's tertiary sector slipped for the fourth month in a row in May as did mining and manufacturing. The three-month, six-month, 12-month sequential averages of the index levels are falling except for construction. Percentage changes [...]