- Exports rebound following four consecutive m/m declines; imports rise for the fourth time in five months.
- Real goods trade deficit widens to $101.76 billion, the biggest since October.
- Month-on-month growth in goods exports exceeds growth in goods imports.
- Petroleum imports rise after two straight m/m drops; nonpetroleum imports post their largest m/m gain since March ’22.
- Goods trade deficits w/ China and Japan narrow; deficit w/ EU falls to a four-month low.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Mar 01 2023U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Eases in January; Second Straight M/M Decline
- Total January construction -0.1% (+5.7% y/y); December revised down to -0.7% but November revised up to +1.8%.
- Residential private construction declines 0.6% (-3.9% y/y), down for eight consecutive months, led by a 1.7% drop (-18.4% y/y) in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction rebounds 0.9% (19.1% y/y), up for the eighth time in nine months.
- Public sector construction falls 0.6% (+11.1% y/y), down for the second successive month, led by a 0.6% decline (+11.2% y/y) in nonresidential public construction.
USA| Feb 28 2023U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Worsens in February; Below 50 for the Sixth Consecutive Month
- Index declines 0.7 pts. to 43.6 in Feb., the lowest since Nov., w/ production down 10.2 pts. to 38.4 and employment down 4.7 pts. to 37.3.
- New orders contract for nine straight months while production (at a three-month low) and employment (the lowest since June ’20) contract for six successive months.
- Order backlogs up 4.5 pts. to 40.0 and new orders up 3.0 pts. to 43.6, still in contraction territory, but supplier deliveries up 3.6 pts. to an expansion-level 58.5.
- Prices paid index, while down 7.2 pts. in Feb., remains at a very high 65.3.
USA| Feb 27 2023Texas Manufacturing Activity and Expectations Indexes Negative for the 10th Straight Month in February
- General business activity falls back to -13.5 in February from -8.4 in January while future general business activity improves to -2.9 from January's -9.1.
- Company outlook negative for the 12th consecutive month; new orders growth negative for the 10th straight month; and new orders negative for the ninth successive month.
- Production negative for the first time since May '20; employment negative for the first time since June '20.
- Price pressures increase w/ prices received rising to 15.8 and prices paid rising to 25.1, their highest since October.
- January CFNAI at 0.23, the first positive reading following three straight negative readings.
- Three of four components increase, but the Sales, Orders & Inventories component falls for the fourth time in five months.
- CFNAI-MA3 rebounds in Jan. after three consecutive m/m drops.
• Import prices decline 0.2% in Jan. (a one-year low in the index level), down for the seventh straight month, led by a 4.9% drop in imported fuel prices. • Excluding fuels, import prices increase 0.3%, up for the second consecutive month. • Export prices beat expectations rising 0.8%, the first m/m gain in seven months, led by a 0.8% rebound in nonag export prices; however, ag export prices ease 0.2%. • Year-over-year import and export price growth rates decelerate in Jan. vs. Dec.; import prices 0.8% vs. 3.0% and export prices 2.3% vs. 4.3%, their lowest since Dec. ’20.
USA| Feb 15 2023U.S. Industrial Production Disappoints in January
- IP +0.03% in Jan., -1.0% in Dec. (downwardly revised from -0.7%), -0.6% in Nov.
- Manufacturing IP (+1.0% in Jan.; downwardly revised for Dec.) rebounds after two straight m/m drops, w/ durable goods up 0.8% and nondurable goods up 1.1%.
- Utilities output decreases a record 9.9% after two consecutive m/m rises while mining activity increases 2.0% vs. two successive m/m declines.
- Consumer goods output falls for the fourth time in five months, but business equipment rebounds following two straight m/m drops.
- Capacity utilization dips 0.1%-pt. to 78.3%; mfg. capacity utilization rises 0.6%-pt. to 77.7%.
USA| Feb 14 2023U.S. Small Business Optimism Rebounds in January
- January NFIB Optimism Index recovers 0.5 pts. to 90.3; its 13th straight month below the 49-year average of 98.
- Six of the 10 index components rebound.
- Uncertainty Index rises to 76 in Jan.; highest since July ’21.
- Outlook for business conditions in the next six months, while improving, remains in negative territory (a net negative 45%); expected real sales fall four pts. to a net negative 14%, a five-month low.
- Inflation as Single Most Important Problem, while down six pts. to 26%, remains top business concern.
- 55.2 in Jan. vs. 49.2 in Dec., showing expansions starting June ’20 except Dec. ’22.
- Increases in all the sub-indexes: business activity (60.4 vs. 53.5) expands for 32 straight months while new orders (60.4 vs. 45.2), employment (50.0 vs. 49.4) and supply deliveries (50.0 vs. 48.5) expand following their Dec. contractions.
- Prices index, still at a high level, falls to a two-year-low 67.8.
- Total December construction -0.4% (+7.7% y/y); upward revisions for November (+0.5%) and October (+0.05% from a decline).
- Residential private construction falls 0.3% (+1.7% y/y), down for seven straight months, led by a 2.3% drop (-14.7% y/y) in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction declines 0.5% (+15.0% y/y) following seven consecutive m/m rises.
- Public sector construction decreases 0.4% (+11.7% y/y), the first m/m decline in seven months, reflecting drops of 0.5% (-2.2% y/y) in residential public construction and 0.4% (+12.1% y/y) in nonresidential public construction.
- Index dips to 44.3 in Jan. from 45.1 in Dec.; declines in index components except production (up 8.5 pts.) and supplier deliveries (up 1.4 pts).
- New orders (40.6) contract for eight consecutive months while production (48.6) and employment (42.0) contract for five successive months.
- Inflation pressures rise w/ prices paid at a three-month-high 72.5.
USA| Jan 26 2023Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index in Negative Territory for the Fourth Consecutive Month in January
- Index rebounds to -1 in Jan. from -4 in Dec., w/ employment (4) holding steady in positive territory and new orders (-8) and production (-4) improving but remaining in negative territory.
- Price pressures increase somewhat in Jan., w/ the prices paid and prices received indexes up minimally.
- Expectations for future activity, while down slightly, remain in positive territory this month, w/ expected employment rising; however, the indexes for new orders for exports (-8) and finished goods inventories (-7) move into negative territory.
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