U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens for the Third Straight Month in November
Summary
- $90.27 billion deficit in November, a four-month high and larger than expected.
- Exports drop 3.6%, the second consecutive m/m decline.
- Imports down 2.1% following two successive m/m increases.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $90.27 billion in November from $89.56 billion in October, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the third straight month and the fourth time in five months that the goods deficit had widened. The November deficit was a four-month high and larger than an $83.20 billion shortfall in November 2022. A deficit of $88.9 billion had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $121.18 billion in March 2022.
Total exports fell 3.6% m/m (-3.3% y/y) in November following a 1.4% decline in October and three successive m/m gains. Exports had fallen 8.7% since a July 2022 high. The fall in exports in November reflected m/m declines of several end-use categories. These included exports m/m drops of 6.6% (-12.2% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 5.6% (+2.2% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 4.0% (+11.2% y/y) in other goods, 2.8% (-3.9% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, and 2.3% (-2.6% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages. Meanwhile, exports of capital goods excluding autos were virtually unchanged (5.5% y/y) in November after five consecutive m/m increases.
Total imports slid 2.1% m/m (+0.6% y/y) in November, the first monthly slide since August, after a 0.1% uptick in October. Imports had fallen 11.8% since a March 2022 high. The fall in imports in November reflected imports m/m drops of 6.5% (+0.4% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 1.5% (-11.6% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 1.0% (+8.9% y/y) in other goods, 0.5% (+20.3% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, and 0.4% (+1.4% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos. To the upside, imports of foods, feeds & beverages were the only end-use category with a monthly gain in November, rising 0.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 1.1% October rebound.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has ~20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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