- $90.27 billion deficit in December, larger than expected.
- Exports decline 1.6%, down for the fourth consecutive month.
- Imports rebound 1.9%, up for the third time in four months.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Jan 26 2023U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens in December
USA| Jan 18 2023U.S. Home Builder Index Unexpectedly Rebounds in January
- Home builder confidence improves to a three-month high after 12 straight m/m drops.
- All the three HMI components increase m/m with the largest in potential buyers' traffic (+15.0%).
- Regional increase is widespread with the biggest monthly gain in the West (+16.0%).
- December NFIB Optimism Index down 2.1 pts. to 89.8; its 12th straight month below the 49-year average of 98.
- Eight of the 10 index components decline.
- Uncertainty Index rebounds to 71 in Dec. after falling to a four-month low in Nov.
- Outlook for business conditions in the next six months worsens to the lowest level since July; expected real sales fall two pts. to a net negative 10%.
- Inflation remains top business concern.
- -4.0% m/m (-37.8% y/y) in Nov. vs. -4.7% m/m (-37.1% y/y) in Oct.
- November PHSI at 73.9, lowest since April 2020.
- Widespread m/m drops in all the major regions, w/ double-digit y/y falling rates.
- With mortgage rates declining, home-buying activity will likely rebound and help GDP growth in the near term.
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$83.35 billion deficit in November, smaller than expected.
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Exports decline 3.1%, down for the third straight month.
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Imports fall 7.6% following two consecutive m/m rises.
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Up 6.9 pts. to a higher-than-expected 108.3 in Dec.; highest since April.
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Present Situation Index increases to a three-month-high 147.2 after two consecutive m/m declines.
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Expectations Index recovers to 82.4, the highest level since Jan., following two successive m/m decreases, but recession risks persist.
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Consumers more optimistic about the current business conditions and the short-term business conditions outlook; more upbeat about the present labor market and the short-term labor market outlook.
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Inflation expectations retreat to their lowest level since Sept. '21.
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640,000 units SAAR in Nov., a three-month high; downward revisions to Oct. and Sept.
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Month-on-month sales up in the West and the Midwest but down in the Northeast and the South.
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Median sales price declines following two consecutive m/m rises.
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USA| Dec 22 2022Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index in Negative Territory for the Third Straight Month in December
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Index declines to -9 in Dec., lowest since May '20, from -6 in Nov., w/ new orders (-17), production (-13) and shipments (-1) in negative territory.
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Employment falls to a zero reading, its lowest level since Nov. '20.
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Price pressures ease somewhat, w/ the prices paid index for raw materials dropping to the lowest level since Jul. '20.
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Expectations for future activity improve slightly.
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- USA| Dec 21 2022
U.S. Mortgage Applications Up for the Second Week After Two Consecutive Weekly Declines
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Applications for loans to purchase edge down in the week of December 16.
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Applications for refinancing a loan rise for the third straight week.
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Mortgage rates fall for fixed-rate loans, Jumbos and ARMs; their lowest rates since September.
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- USA| Dec 14 2022
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise After Two Straight Weekly Drops
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Applications for loans to purchase rebound in the week of December 9.
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Applications for refinancing a loan increase for the second consecutive week.
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Effective mortgage rates unchanged at 6.60% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan but down for ARMs.
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Declines in mortgage rates and moderate house-price growth may support home buyers to return to the housing market in the near term.
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- Affordability continues to fall in Oct., w/ HAI down 5.6% m/m and down a record 36.4% y/y.
- Mortgage rates rise to 6.98%, the highest since Aug. ’01; mortgage payments increase for the second straight month.
- Median sales price of a home declines 1.2% to an eight-month-low $384,900.
- Median family income rises to a record-high $89,507.
USA| Dec 05 2022U.S. Factory Orders Increase More Than Expected in October
- Oct. new orders +1.0%, the third straight m/m gain; Sept. and Aug. unrevised.
- Shipments rise 0.7%, w/ a 1.0% gain in nondurable goods.
- Growth in unfilled orders edges up to 0.6% in Oct. from 0.5% in Sept., while growth in inventories quickens to 0.5%, the fastest since May, from 0.1%.
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