- $88.46 billion deficit in December, a three-month low, matching expectations.
- Exports gain 2.5% following two straight m/m declines.
- Imports rebound 1.3%, the third m/m increase in four months.
Introducing
Winnie Tapasanun
in:Our Authors
Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
Publications by Winnie Tapasanun
USA| Jan 25 2024U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows As Expected in December
USA| Jan 17 2024U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Increases in December
- IP +0.1% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in Dec.; downward revision for Nov.
- Mfg. IP inches up 0.1% m/m, w/ durable goods down 0.4% and nondurable goods up 0.6%; motor vehicles production rises 1.6%, the second successive m/m gain.
- Mining activity rebounds vs. two consecutive m/m drops, but utilities output falls for the fourth straight month.
- Performance in key categories in market groups is mixed.
- Capacity utilization holds steady at 78.6%.
USA| Jan 12 2024U.S. Producer Prices Unexpectedly Dip in December
- December PPI 0.1% m/m easing (+1.0% y/y) reflects drops of 1.2% in energy prices and 0.9% in food costs.
- PPI ex foods & energy as well as services prices hold steady for the third straight month.
- Core goods prices are unchanged after a 0.1% November uptick.
USA| Jan 05 2024U.S. ISM Services PMI Falls to a Seven-Month Low in December
- 50.6 in Dec. vs. 52.7 in Nov.
- Indexes for Employment (43.3, lowest since July ’20), New Orders (52.8, a three-month low), and Supplier Deliveries (49.5) fall in Dec., while Business Activity Index rises (56.6, a three-month high).
- Prices Index eases to a five-month-low 57.4, albeit remaining above 50 since June ’17.
USA| Dec 28 2023U.S. Pending Home Sales Unchanged in November
- PHSI 0.0% m/m (-5.2% y/y) in Nov. after falling in Oct.
- Month over month, pending home sales rise in three major regions but decline in the South.
- Year over year, sales drop in all four regions, w/ single-digit y/y falling rates, less severe than in Nov. ’22.
- With mortgage rates declining further, home-buying activity will likely improve in 2024.
- $90.27 billion deficit in November, a four-month high and larger than expected.
- Exports drop 3.6%, the second consecutive m/m decline.
- Imports down 2.1% following two successive m/m increases.
USA| Dec 27 2023U.S. Energy Prices Rise Following Weeks of Declines
- Gasoline prices up for the first time since the September 18 week.
- Crude oil costs up for the first time since the November 24 week.
- Natural gas prices up for the first time since the December 1 week.
USA| Dec 26 2023Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rebounds in November
- November CFNAI recovers to 0.03, a four-month high.
- All four key components rebound m/m, w/ two making positive contributions.
- CFNAI-MA3 improves to -0.20, still negative but above -0.70 that historically has been associated with recession.
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slips 0.1 pt. to 90.6 in Nov., well below its long-term avg. of 98.
- Small Business Uncertainty Index falls to the lowest reading since June ’22.
- Business conditions in the next six months tick up to -42%; expected real sales rise to a one-year-high -8%, still a pessimistic outlook.
- Quality of labor (24%) and inflation (22%) are top business concerns.
- Deficit widens as expected in Oct. for the third time in four months.
- Exports down for the first time since June, but imports up for the third month in four.
- Real goods trade deficit widens to $87.04 billion, the largest since July.
- Goods trade deficits w/ China and Japan narrow, while trade shortfall w/ EU rises to a one-year high.
USA| Dec 05 2023U.S. ISM Services PMI Rebounds in November
- 52.7 in Nov. vs. 51.8 in Oct., showing continued expansions in services since Jan. ’23.
- Indexes for Business Activity (55.1), Employment (50.7), and Supplier Deliveries (49.6) rebound in Nov., while New Orders Index holds steady (55.5).
- Prices Index eases to 58.3, albeit remaining above 50 since June ’17.
- Construction spending +0.6% m/m in Oct., higher than expected; +10.7% y/y, highest since Aug. ’22.
- Residential private construction recovers 1.2% m/m, led by a 2.0% rebound in home improvement.
- Nonresidential private construction increases for the 16th time in 17 months.
- Public sector construction continues its string of gains, reflecting rises in both residential and nonresidential public construction.
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