Tom Moeller

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The Pending Home Sales Index produced by the National Association of Realtors fell 10.2% (-31.0% y/y) to 79.5 in September following a 1.9% August decline. The September decline was the tenth decline in eleven months. Pending home sales have fallen 37.9% since the August 2020 high.

Pending home sales declined everywhere in the country last month. Sales in the Northeast fell 16.2% (-30.1% y/y) following a 3.4% August shortfall. In the West, sales declined 11.7% (-38.7% y/y) after rising 1.4% in August. Sales in the Midwest declined 8.8% (-26.7% y/y) in September after dropping 5.0% in August. Sales in the South fell 8.1% (-30.0% y/y) after a 0.8% August slip.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **SURVEYW** database.

- Sales are lowest since April 2020.
- Sales decline across the country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall Sharply in September

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Individuals remain inclined to spend, but price inflation continued to eat into the real value of both spending & income last month. The 0.6% increase (8.2% y/y) in personal consumption expenditures followed a like rise in August, revised from 0.4%. A 0.4% increase had been expected for September in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The nominal gain in spending was inflated by price inflation. The 0.3% rise (1.9% y/y) in real sending repeated the August rise. Real spending on durable goods edged 0.1% higher (7.9% y/y) last month as spending on motor vehicle & parts rose 0.9% (1.4% y/y) after improving 0.2% in August. Real spending of furniture & appliance held steady (-1.4% y/y) after falling 0.4%. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles fell 0.2% (+5.8% y/y) after a 1.0% decline. Real spending on nondurable goods rose 0.6% (-2.0% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in August as outlays on gasoline & other energy products surged 3.0% (-2.4% y/y) following a 2.4% August increase. Apparel spending jumped 1.3% (-0.2% y/y) following two months of firm increase as real outlays on "other" goods rose 0.4% (0.8% y/y). Food & beverage buying eased 0.3% (-5.6% y/y), falling in most months of this year. Spending on consumer services improved 0.3% (3.1% y/y) after rising 0.5% in August when adjusted for inflation. Real transportation services outlays improved 0.8% (3.9% y/y) after strengthening 2.0% but real housing & utilities expenditures rose only 0.1% (1.1% y/y) after holding steady in August. Real healthcare spending gained 0.3% in September (1.5% y/y), the same in the prior month. Recreation services buying improved 0.2% (5.7% y/y), half the August increase when adjusted for higher prices, but real expenditures at restaurants & hotels strengthened 0.6% (5.3% y/y) after a 0.9% August increase.

Inflation remined firm last month. The PCE chain price index rose 0.3%, the same as in August. The 6.2% y/y rise also was steady but remained below the June peak of 7.0%. It was nearly the highest rate of price inflation in over 40 years. A 0.5% m/m increase in the price index less food & energy also replicated the August gain. The 5.1% y/y gain was the biggest rise since the autumn of 1983. Food & beverage prices were up another 0.6% (11.9% y/y). Energy prices, in contrast, slid 2.4% (+20.3% y/y), the third straight monthly drop.

A second consecutive 0.6% rise (5.3% y/y) in the services price index powered the overall gain, driven by a 2.1% jump (16.4% y/y) in transportation prices. Housing & utilities costs rose 0.8% (8.0% y/y), following a 0.9% gain. Recreation services costs held steady (4.5% y/y) after falling 0.2%. The gain in the durable goods price index of 0.4% (5.7% y/y) came after a 0.5% August increase. Motor vehicles and parts (9.1% y/y) and home furnishings (8.6% y/y) each rose 0.1% in September. Recreational goods and "other" durable goods prices rose 0.5% (0.9% y/y) and 1.7% (2.9% y/y), respectively. Nondurables prices moved in the opposite direction, falling 0.4% (+9.5% y/y) as energy prices moved lower. The overall decline included a 0.5% drop (+5.7% y/y) in apparel prices which came after a 0.3% rise.

Personal income rose an expected 0.4% (5.2% y/y) during September, the same as in the prior two months. The gain reflected a 0.6% rise (8.2% y/y) in wages & salaries, mirroring continued employment growth. A 0.2% rise (4.7% y/y) in proprietors' income was accompanied by a second straight 0.2% gain (8.5% y/y) in rental income. Receipts on assets rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y) as interest income increased 0.6% (5.9% y/y) and dividend income improved 0.3% (3.8% y/y). Personal transfer receipts slipped 0.1% (-2.0% y/y). Disposable income rose 0.4% last month (3.2% y/y) after increasing 0.5% in August while real disposable earnings held steady (-2.9% y/y) following a 0.2% rise.

The personal saving rate fell to 3.1% in September, nearly equaling the lowest rate since April 2008. The level of personal savings fell 8.5% and was 59.3% lower y/y.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Spending reflects strong service outlays.
- Income increases with stronger wage gains.
- Price inflation stays steady & strong.

U.S. Personal Spending Picks Up & Income Growth Firms in September

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Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.6% (1.8% y/y) during Q3'22, following unrevised declines of 0.6% and 1.6% in the prior two quarters. The latest figure compared to expectations for a 2.2% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Improvement in the foreign trade deficit added 2.8 percentage points to growth last quarter after a 1.2 percentage point addition in Q2. The gain occurred as exports grew 14.4% (11.3% y/y) after rising 13.8% in Q2, and imports fell 6.9% (7.5% y/y) following a 2.3% gain. The contribution to growth from business inventories weakened to -0.7 percentage points after a 1.9 percentage point subtraction in Q2.

Growth in domestic final demand remained low at 0.5% (1.0% y/y) following a 0.2% improvement in Q2. These were the weakest growth rates since negative growth early in 2020. Real personal consumption expenditure growth last quarter eased to 1.4% (2.0% y/y) from 2.0% in Q2. Durable goods outlays fell 0.8% (+2.2% y/y) as spending on motor vehicle & parts fell 11.7% (-0.5% y/y), but furniture & appliance spending rose 3.2% (-1.7% y/y). Spending on recreational goods & vehicles improved 8.0% (7.9% y/y). In the nondurable goods sector, spending declined 1.4% (-1.9% y/y) as outlays on food & beverages fell 3.8% (-5.2% y/y), off for the third straight quarter. Clothing outlays improved 4.7% (0.1% y/y) while gasoline & oil expenditures weakened 5.9% (-3.7% y/y). Purchases of services rose 2.8% (3.2% y/y). Housing & utilities outlays gained 0.3% (0.9% y/y) and health care outlays increased 2.9% (1.7% y/y). Spending on recreation increased 0.8% (6.8% y/y) while spending at restaurants & hotels increased 3.3% (5.6% y/y).

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Business fixed investment growth rose to 3.7% (3.2% y/y) in Q3'22 after edging 0.1% higher in Q2. Structures investment fell 15.4% and has been falling since the end of 2019. Equipment investment surged 10.8% (5.3% y/y) led by a 92.1% gain (8.9% y/y) in transportation equipment. Investment in industrial equipment fell 12.7% (+0.6% y/y) while investment in intellectual property products rose 6.9% (8.7% y/y), strong since the end of the recession.

Residential investment declined 26.4% last quarter (-12.7% y/y), the sixth consecutive quarterly decline.

Government spending increased 2.4% (-0.6% y/y) in Q3'22 after declining in each of the prior five quarters. Federal government spending gained 3.7% (-1.3% y/y) as defense spending rose 4.7% (-2.0% y/y). Nondefense spending increased 2.2% (-0.3% y/y). State & local government spending rose 1.7% (-0.2 y/y).

The GDP price index increased 4.1% (7.0% y/y) last quarter following a 9.0% Q2 rise. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 5.3% increase. The PCE price Index rose 4.2% (6.3 y/y) after increasing 7.3%. The PCE price index less food & energy gained 4.5% (4.9% y/y), about the same as it did in Q2. The nonresidential price index rose 7.4% (7.6% y/y). The equipment price index improved 5.7% (7.3% y/y) but the intellectual property products index gained just 3.6% (2.9% y/y). The residential investment price index rose 8.3% (13.5% y/y) following six straight quarters of double-digit increase. The government spending price index rose 3.2% (7.6% y/y) after an 11.6% jump in the second quarter.

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts. Both databases include tables of the newly published not seasonally adjusted data. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Upturn is led by foreign trade sector improvement.
- Capital spending growth accelerates but consumer spending slows.
- Price index increase decelerates.

U.S. GDP Growth Turns Positive in Q3'22

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Last month, new single-family home sales declined 10.9% (-17.6% y/y) to 603,000 (AR) from 677,00 in August, revised from 685,000. July sales totaled 543,000. Sales have fallen 40.1% from their peak of 1.007 million in July 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 594,000 new homes.

Last month's decline in new home sales was concentrated in the South where they declined 20.2% (-19.3% y/y) to 356,000. The decline fully reversed the August increase to 446,000. Sales in the West eased 0.7% in September (-30.4% y/y) to 135,000 which came after a 24.8% August rise. Moving 56.0% higher last month (25.8% y/y) were sales in the Northeast to 39,000, the highest level since April. New home sales in the Midwest gained 4.3% (10.6% y/y) in September to 73,000, a six-month high.

The median price of a new home increased 8.0% last month (13.9% y/y) to $470, 600 after weakening 9.2% in August. The average sales price of a new home fell 2.1% (+10.0% y/y) to $517,700 following a 6.6% August decline. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market fell 1.1% (+23.2% y/y) to a seasonally adjusted 462,000, up from a low of 142,000 in July 2012. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.2 months, up from a low of 3.3 months in August 2021. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market plunged to a record low of 1.5 months, down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Home sales fall reverses August rise.
- Sales decline sharply in the South.
- Median sales price rebounds.

U.S. New Home Sales Drop Back in September

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The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $92.2 billion during September from an unrevised $87.3 billion in August. The increase brought it to the highest level in three months. The deficit reached a peak of $125.7 billion in March of this year. An $87.8 billion September deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports of goods fell 1.5% (+23.4% y/y) during September following a 0.7% August decline while imports rose 0.8% last month (12.9% y/y) after a 1.5% August shortfall.

The weakening in exports last month reflected a 14.0% drop (+7.8% y/y) in food & beverage exports which came after 1.3% increase in August. Industrial supplies & materials export weakened 3.1% (+38.1% y/y), off sharply for the third straight month. Exports of nonauto consumer goods exports eased 0.3% (+7.7% y/y) in September after rising 6.4% in August. Working higher, exports of autos & auto parts rose 5.0% (21.1% y/y) following a 7.7% August decline. Capital goods exports strengthened 2.3% (16.2% y/y) after rising 0.6% in August while exports of "other" goods improved 1.0% (39.0% y/y), up strongly in eight of the last nine months.

The September import increase was led by a 4.4% rise (14.6% y/y) in capital goods imports that came after 1.5% weakening in August. Auto imports gained 1.9% (34.1% y/y) in September, the third straight month of strong increase. Nonauto consumer goods imports rose 1.4% (9.8% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in August. Working 3.3% lower last month (+11.4% y/y) were industrial supplies & materials imports, following two straight months of deep decline. Foods, feeds & beverage imports weakened 1.3% (+10.3% y/y) following a 2.5% August rise. Imports of "other" goods fell 1.3% in September (-16.9% y/y), the fifth decline in six months.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit rise follows five consecutive months of decline.
- Exports decline for second straight month.
- Imports rise for first month in the last six.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Expands in September

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence Index fell 4.9% during October (-8.2% y/y) to 102.5 following a 4.1% September rise to 107.8, revised from 108.0. The index was 20.5% below its most recent high of 128.9 in June 2021. A reading of 105.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for October.

Consumers' views of both the current & future economic situation deteriorated this month. The Present Situation Index fell 7.5% (-4.5% y/y) to 138.9 and reversed two consecutive months of increase. The index settled at the lowest level since April of 2021. The Expectations Index weakened 1.8% (-12.2% y/y) to 78.1 this month, after rising 5.9% in September and 15.5% in August. It remained 30.1% below its recent peak in March 2021.

Consumers' assessment of current business conditions deteriorated as only 17.5% of respondents characterized them as good, the weakest reading in three months. Labor market readings showed less optimism this month. The jobs gap, representing the difference between respondents indicating that jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get, fell to 32.5% in October, the lowest level in 18 months. Calculated by Haver Analytics, this series has a 67% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years. The jobs plentiful measure fell sharply this month, also to an 18-month low. The jobs hard-to-get measure rose similarly.

A higher 19.2% of respondents felt that business conditions would get better in six months, up from a July low of 13.7%. An improved 19.8% of respondents felt there would be more jobs in six months, up from 15.1% in July. A higher 18.9% expected income to increase in six months, up from a 15.3% July low.

Inflation expectations turned up. The expected inflation rate in twelve months edged up to 7.0% in October after falling to 6.8% in September. It remained below the June high of 7.9%. The figure is higher than the 4.4% low in January 2020. A lessened 64.9% of respondents expected interest rates to rise over the next twelve months.

The share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months increased to 6.8% in October, up from a 4.5% July low. It stood at the highest level in six months and occurred even as mortgage rates rose. Those planning to buy a major appliance jumped to 49.5% of respondents in October, up from a 41.1% July low.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Present situation assessment falls to 18-month low.
- Overall expectations reading weakens.
- Inflation expectations edge higher.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls in October

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Retail gasoline prices fell last week to $3.77 per gallon (+11.4% y/y) after declining to $3.87 during the previous week. Prices remained below the mid-June peak of $5.01 per gallon. The cost of diesel fuel held steady at $5.34 per gallon (43.8% y/y).

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to an average $85.17 per barrel (+2.2% y/y) in the week ended October 21 from $88.77 in the prior week. Prices reached a high of $120.46 per barrel in the second week of June. Yesterday, the price was $84.58 per barrel . The average price of Brent crude oil eased to $91.04 per barrel last week (+7.1% y/y) from $94.62 in the week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June. Yesterday, the price was $91.57 per barrel.

The price of natural gas fell last week to $5.48/mmbtu (+10.7% y/y) from $6.29/mmbtu in the previous week. Prices peaked at $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August. They remained up from a low of $3.56/mmbtu in the last week of December. Yesterday, the price was $4.81/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended October 14, gasoline demand declined 6.4% from a year earlier after falling 5.5% y/y during the prior four weeks. These declines compare to 15.2% y/y growth at the end of last year. Demand for all petroleum products fell 2.4% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries increased 2.8% y/y.

Gasoline inventories fell 3.8% y/y in the week of October 14, while crude oil inventories declined 19.1% y/y.

Measured in days' supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended October 14 edged down to 23.8 days from 24.0 days in the prior week. The supply of crude oil improved to 27.8 days but remained down from 41.8 days in early-March of last year.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's **WEEKLY** and **DAILY **databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY**.

- Gasoline prices weaken further.
- Crude oil prices fall to lowest level in three weeks.
- The cost of natural gas declines.

U.S. Energy Prices Decline

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) held steady m/m at 0.10 in September. The August reading of 0.10 was revised from 0.00, and July was unrevised at 0.29. The Q2 average remained in negative territory.

The index's three-month moving average improved to 0.17 in September after 0.04 in August. The figure was down from a recent high of 0.48 in December, 2021. During the last 10 years, there has been 79% correlation between the change in the Chicago Fed Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.

The Production & Income reading of 0.07 last month compared to -0.02 in August and 0.17 in July. It remained below this year's high of 0.31 in February. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours component edged up to 0.06 from -0.05 in August. It remained down from the high of 0.33 in February. To the downside, Sales, Orders and Inventories declined to -0.01 from +0.15 in August. Despite the decline, the quarterly average improved versus Q2. The Personal Consumption & Housing index eased to -0.01 from +0.02, and left the quarterly average roughly unchanged from it Q2 level.

The diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the component series, rose to 0.35 during September from 0.16 in August. These readings compare to a low of -0.12 in June. Forty-eight of the components contributed positively to the September index while 37 contributed negatively.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity moves toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of October 20, 2022. September data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published at that time. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index.

The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Figures reverse negative Q2 readings.
- Three-month average improves.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Remains Positive in September

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The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $1.375 trillion during fiscal year 2022 compared to a $2.776 trillion deficit one year earlier. For September alone, the deficit totaled $429.7 billion. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $24.6 billion deficit for September.

Overall revenues improved 21.0% y/y in FY'22. Individual income tax receipts increased 28.8% y/y as employment continued to rise. Corporate tax payments rose 14.3% y/y with strength in business earnings. Social insurance taxes rose 12.9% y/y in FY'22 and excise taxes grew 16.5% y/y.

Federal government outlays declined 8.1% y/y in FY'22. Income security payments nearly halved this year in the absence of economic stimulus checks. National defense outlays grew 1.6% y/y in FY'22. Outlays on health programs rose 14.8% y/y in FY'22. Social Security outlays increased 7.4% y/y last fiscal year and Medicare outlays rose 8.4%. Interest payments surged 34.9% y/y.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Revenues continue to rise despite economy's slowing.
- Spending declines absent stimulus checks.

U.S. Government Budget Deficit Narrows in Fiscal Year 2022

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) dropped 0.4% last week (-12.2% y/y) after gains during the prior two weeks of 1.2% and 1.4%. Despite these increases, the price index eased 0.1% during the last four weeks and remained 20.3% below its peak in the second week of March.

Price declines were largest in **Textiles**. Prices here fell 3.1% in the last four weeks and were 4.5% lower y/y. Cotton prices declined 16.2% in four weeks and were off 21.9% y/y. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening, fell 3.5% in the last four weeks and weakened 6.2% y/y.

Prices in the **Metals group** followed with a 1.2% decline in the last four weeks, off 27.9% y/y. Tin prices fell 8.2% (50.5% y/y) and zinc prices fell 7.4% in four weeks, off 21.2% y/y. Zinc is used in the manufacture of batteries. Copper scrap prices weakened 2.6% in four weeks and were down 26.9% y/y. Offsetting these declines, lead prices rose 8.7% (-15.5% y/y) while steel scrap prices increased 1.7% (-24.0% y/y) in four weeks. Aluminum prices were little changed (-28.6% y/y).

In the **Miscellaneous group**, prices rose 1.7% (-8.8% y/y) during the last four weeks, led by a 6.2% rise in framing lumber prices. Nevertheless, they have fallen 27.6% during the last year. Natural rubber prices improved 6.6% but were down 4.9% y/y. Hide prices held steady over four weeks, but fell by 28.2% y/y.

Prices in the **Crude Oil & Benzene group** rose 3.8% during the last four weeks and have risen 1.5% y/y. The cost of West Texas crude oil rose 1.4% to $85.80 per barrel, up 3.7% y/y. Prices for the petro-chemical benzene strengthened 17.8% in four weeks and edged 0.5% higher y/y. The FIBER price index excluding crude oil eased 0.2% during the last four weeks and was 13.0% lower y/y.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Latest easing reverses a piece of earlier gains.
- Trend level continues downward.
- Oil prices weaken while lumber prices rise.

Industrial Commodity Prices Slip

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The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index declined 0.4% (-1.4% y/y) during September after holding steady in August, revised from -0.3%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.3% decline in the index for last month.

Four of the Leading Index's ten components made negative contributions in September. Declines came from new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, consumer expectations for business/economic conditions, stock prices and the leading credit index.

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators improved 0.2% last month (2.3% y/y) after it edged 0.1% higher in August, revised from 0.1%. Each of the four index components rose including payroll employment, personal income, industrial production and business sales.

The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators increased 0.6% during September (6.9% y/y) following a 0.8% August gain, revised from 0.7%. Five of the index's seven components made positive contributions: the average duration of unemployment, the services CPI, the business inventory/sales ratio and the prime rate and C&I loans.

The ratio of the Coincident index to the Lagging index also is seen as a leading indicator. The ratio has been steadily declining since November, suggesting rising recession risks.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

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- Index has declined in most months this year.
- Coincident indicators continue to rise.
- Lagging indicators exhibit more strength.

U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators Fall in September

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 214,000 (-31.0% y/y) during the week ended October 15 from 226,000 during the prior week, revised from 228,000. A level of 232,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims was 212,250 compared to 211,000 in the prior week, and was below an early-August high of 249,500. It remained higher than an early-April low of 170,500.

In the week ended October 8, continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance edged higher to 1.385 million (-44.9% y/y) from 1.364 million in the prior week, revised from 1.368 million. The 4-week moving average rose to 1.365 million from 1.363 million, the lowest number of continuing claims since the third week of July.

The insured unemployment rate in the week ended October 8 rose to 1.0% from a revised 0.9% in the prior week. The insured unemployment rate has varied between 0.9% and 1.0% since April, a record-low range for the series, which dates back to 1971.

In the week ended October 1, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs fell to 1.224 million (-62.7% y/y). This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.

The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending October 1 were in New Jersey (1.74%), California (1.70%), New York (1.34%), Rhode Island (1.24%) and Massachusetts (1.14%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.13%), Virginia (0.17%), Alabama (0.20%), North Dakota (0.21%) and Kansas (0.25%). Other state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs include Pennsylvania (1.02%), Illinois (0.97%), Texas (0.76%) and Florida (0.44%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's **WEEKLY** database, and they are summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW**. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Claims remain on downward trend.
- Continued weeks claimed edge higher, but trend level also slips.
- Insured unemployment rate remains near record low.

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease

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