Tom Moeller

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The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators Index fell 0.3% (-5.9% y/y) during January following a 0.8% December drop, revised from -1.0%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.4% decline in the index for January.

Four of the Leading Index's ten components made negative contributions to the index change in January. Declining influences came from the ISM new orders diffusion index, the interest rate yield curve, consumer expectations for business/economic conditions and the leading credit index. Positive contributions came from the average workweek, initial claims for jobless insurance, factory orders for consumer goods, orders for nondefense capital goods and stock prices. Building permits were unchanged.

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators edged up 0.2% last month (1.3% y/y) after a holding steady in December, revised from a 0.1% rise. Each of the four index components rose minimally, including payroll employment, real personal income less transfers, real business sales and industrial production. The diffusion index of the percent of components rising over the last six months has been zero since November.

The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators increased 0.2% in January (6.9% y/y) following a 0.6% December rise, revised from 0.3%. A rise in the banks’ prime rate, the consumer credit-to-personal income ratio and the 6-month change in the services CPI contributed positively to the index change. The average duration of unemployment, unit labor cost growth and C&I loans outstanding contributed negatively. The six-month change in the lagging index stood at 5.6%, down from its May high of 9.4%.

The ratio of the Coincident index to the Lagging index also is seen as a leading indicator as it measures current economic performance versus excesses. The ratio held steady last month but has been steadily declining since December of 2021, suggesting rising recession risks.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [site](https://www.conference-board.org/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

**Disinflation: Progress and Prospects** from James Bullard, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available [here](https://www.stlouisfed.org/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/files/pdfs/bullard/remarks/2023/bullard-greater-jackson-chamber-16-feb-2023.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=3AB128AC00BADE0564654D6EF816A351).

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- Index declines for tenth straight month.
- Coincident indicators rise slightly.
- Lagging indicators continue to increase.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Ease in January

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Online retail sales edged a seasonally adjusted 0.1% lower (+6.5% y/y) in Q4’22 following increases of 1.6% and 3.1% in the prior two quarters, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. E-Commerce sales accounted for 14.7% of total retail sales in Q4'22 and has been steady at that level since 2020.

The following details of the E-Commerce data by sector are not seasonally adjusted.

Sales of nonstore retailers, which accounted for 59.2% of total E-Commerce, rose 19.1% last quarter (12.4% y/y) following a 1.8% rise in Q3. Clothing accessory store sales surged 41.3% (5.1% y/y) after easing 0.4% in Q3. Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument & book sales strengthened 34.3% (5.6% y/y) after rising 4.6% inQ3. General merchandise store sales jumped 26.3% last quarter (-0.3% y/y) after falling 2.3% in Q3. Sales of furniture & home furnishings improved 10.7% in Q4 (1.1% y/y) after rising 3.0% in Q3. Food & beverage purchases rose 14.4% (5.8% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.

Building materials & garden equipment sales rose 3.2% in Q4 (7.1% y/y) after falling 11.4%. Miscellaneous sales including gasoline stations rose 3.9% (8.2% y/y) after falling 5.1% in Q3. Motor vehicle & parts sales weakened 4.0% (-2.5% y/y) following a 5.1% decline.

E-commerce sales are goods and services ordered over an internet, mobile device (M-commerce), extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system. Payment may or may not be made online and sometimes sale & price are negotiated. Total sales estimates are adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. They are also adjusted for trading-day differences and moving holidays.

E-Commerce sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database.

-	Decline follows four straight quarters of increase.
-	Changes in sales are uneven across categories.

U.S. E-Commerce Sales Slip in Q4'22

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The housing market continues to suffer under the weight of higher interest rates and reduced demand. Total housing starts fell 4.5% (-21.4% y/y) during January to 1.309 million units (SAAR) from 1.371 million in December, revised from 1.382 million. Starts have fallen for five straight months and were 27.5% below the April 2022 peak of 1.805 million units. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.37 million starts in January. 

The decline in starts last month occurred as single-family starts fell 4.3% (-27.3% y/y) to 841,000 after rising 8.9% in December. They have fallen 35.7% since the December 2020 peak. Multi-family starts weakened 4.9% (-8.1% y/y) last month to 468,000 after falling 19.6% in the prior month. They were 25.9% below the April 2022 peak.

Starts in the Northeast fell 42.2% (+13.3% y/y) to 119,000 after surging 136.8% in December. Starts in the Midwest declined 25.9% (-37.2% y/y) to 123,000 after falling 30.3% in December. To the upside, starts in the South increased 7.3% (-17.3% y/y) to 760,000 after two months of decline. Starts in the West rose 5.5% (-31.2% y/y) to 307,000 after falling 16.9% in December.

Building permits rose 0.1% (-27.3% y/y) to 1.339 million units during January from 1.337 million in December, revised from 1.330 million. Single-family permits declined 1.8% (-40.0% y/y) to 718,000 after falling for ten consecutive months. Multi-family permits rose 2.5% (-3.6% y/y) to 621,000 after rising 6.3% in December.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Single-family and multi-family starts weaken.
- Starts are mixed across the country.
- Building permits are little changed.


U.S. Housing Starts Decline in January

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Composite Index of Business Conditions plunged to -24.3 during February from -8.9 in January. The index now stands at the lowest level since May 2020 and remained below its peak of 45.6 in April of 2021. It has been negative for eight of the last nine months. A reading of -7.4 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The ISM-Adjusted Composite Index fell to 48.6 this month from 49.2 in January and continued to indicate a contraction in overall factory sector activity. It was well below its high of 65.4 in November 2021.

Movement amongst the component series varied. The new orders series fell to -13.6 in February from -10.9 in January. A lessened 21.7% of respondents reported orders improvement while a smaller 35.3% reported orders deterioration. The shipments index declined to 8.7 this month from 11.1 in January. These figures are down from 32.1 last May. A lessened 26.6% of respondents reported shipments improvement while a lessened 17.9% reported a decline. The delivery times reading dropped to -13.6 from -5.6, indicating a significant pick-up in product delivery speeds. The unfilled orders index remained negative for the ninth straight month. Working the other way, the inventories index surged to 15.3 after having been negative for most of the last nine months.

On the labor front, the employment index fell to 5.1 in February from 10.9 in January. It remained well below its April 2022 peak of 38.4 as a lessened 20.5% of respondents reported more hiring and an increased 15.4% reported less. The hours-worked index weakened to -3.2 and remained below its high of 35.3 in March of 2021.

The prices paid index edged higher to 26.5 from 24.5 in January. It has fallen from a high of 83.6 in November 2021. A lessened 34.2% of respondents reported higher prices while a fewer 7.7% reported price declines. The prices received index fell sharply to 14.9 from 29.9 in January. It stood at it its lowest point in two years, down from a high of 65.8 in November 2021.

The future business conditions index declined to 1.7 this month from 4.9 in January. These were first positive readings since June of 2022. Components were weak and most declined from January, except new orders & employment which improved. The expected prices paid index plunged to the lowest level since the recession.

The Philadelphia Fed data can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Index plunges to lowest level since 2020. 
- New orders, shipments and employment readings weaken.
- Prices paid index remains near recent low.

Philadelphia Fed Factory Index Tumbles in February

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After showing restraint for two months, consumers’ inclination to spend kicked into high gear last month as employment grew and core goods price inflation behaved. Retail sales jumped 3.0% during January (6.4% y/y), the largest monthly increase since March 2021. It followed an unrevised 1.1% December decline and a little-revised 1.1% November drop. A 2.0% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The widespread nature of the increase is highlighted by the 2.3% strengthening (7.3% y/y) in nonauto sales last month. It recovered declines of 0.9% and 0.8% in December and November, respectively. Expectations had been for a 0.8% increase.  

Last month’s sales strength was led by a 5.9% surge (2.8% y/y) in motor vehicle sales after they weakened 1.8% in December and 2.2% in November. The increase compared to a 19.2% rise in unit vehicle sales which also recovered two months of sharp decline. Gasoline station sales held steady last month (+5.7% y/y) after falling sharply in five of the prior six months. 

Sales amongst other stores were strong. Spending in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, jumped 1.7% (4.4% y/y) after easing 0.7% in December and 0.5% in November. 

Furniture and home furnishing store sales surged 4.4% (3.8% y/y) after declining 1.6% in December. Electronics and appliance store sales improved 3.5% (-6.3% y/y) after sharp declines during each of the prior eight months. Sales of nonstore retailers rose 1.3% (3.0% y/y) last month after a 1.0% decline while apparel sales improved 2.5% (6.3% y/y) in January after easing modestly in each of the prior three months. General merchandise sales improved 3.2% (4.5% y/y) after three months of slight decline. Within that category, department store sales strengthened 17.5% (5.4% y/y) after sharp declines from October through December. Sporting goods	 & hobby shop store sales improved 0.2% (6.9% y/y), the same as in December. Building materials store sales rose 0.3% (1.1% y/y) after December’s 1.1% jump.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales rebounded 1.9% (3.6% y/y) after a 1.8% December decline. Food & beverage store sales rose 0.1% last month (6.2% y/y) and recovered December’s 0.1% dip. 

Consumers drove sales at restaurant & drinking places up by 7.2% in January (25.2% y/y) after holding roughly steady in December and November.

Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Increases are widespread.
- Discretionary outlays lead the upturn.
- Gasoline spending is unchanged.

U.S. Retail Sales Surge in January

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The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo rose 20.0% (-48.1% y/y) during February to 42 after rising 12.9% to 35 in January. It was the highest level since September 2022. A February reading of 37 had been expected in the Informa Global Markets survey.

Performance amongst the components of the index was uniformly strong this month. The index of current sales conditions rose 15.0% (-48.3% y/y) to 46. It also was the highest level in five months but remained well below the record-high of 96 in November 2020. The index of expected sales over the next six months improved 29.7% in February (-40.0% y/y) to 48, a seven-month high. The index measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased 26.1% (-55.4% y/y) after a 15.0% January improvement.

Amongst the regions of the country, the Housing Market Index in the Northeast rose 35.3% (-39.5% y/y) to 46, a four-month high. The index in the West increased 27.6% (-59.3% y/y) to 37, a six-month high. In the South, the index improved 15.4% (-46.4% y/y) to 45, the third straight month of increase. The index in the Midwest rose 12.5% (-49.3% y/y) to 36, a four-month high.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions which ask builders to rate sales and sales expectations as "good," "fair" or "poor" and traffic as "very high," "average" or "very low". The figures are diffusion indexes with values over 50 indicating a predominance of "good"/"very high" readings. In constructing the composite index, the weights assigned to the individual index components are: 0.5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, 0.1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months, and 0.2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. These data are included in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The Informa Global Markets survey is in Haver's **MMSAMER** database.

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- Current sales & prospects improve.
- Traffic of prospective buyers strengthens.
- Improvement seen across the country.

U.S. Home Builder Index Increases in February

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The Consumer Price Index rose an expected 0.5% during January following a 0.1% uptick in December, revised from -0.1%. It was the strongest increase in three months. It left the y/y increase at 6.4%, remaining down from June’s high of 9.1%. The 0.4% rise in prices excluding food & energy also was as expected and followed a 0.4% December increase. The 5.6% y/y gain was down from a 6.6% September high. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The CPI less 	food, energy & shelter, another measure of core pricing power, increased 0.2% during January following three consecutive months of 0.1% gain. The 4.0% y/y increase is below the 7.6% peak in February of last year.

Service costs increased 0.5% (7.2% y/y). Shelter prices rose 0.7% (7.9% y/y) as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.7% (7.8% y/y). Rents rose 0.8% (8.0% y/y). Education & communication prices increased 0.5% (2.8% y/y), while transportation service prices rose 0.9% (14.6% y/y). Recreation service prices improved 0.7% (5.8% y/y), but medical care service costs fell 0.7% (+3.0% y/y).

Goods prices excluding food & energy rose 0.1% in January (1.4	% y/y). Used car & truck prices fell 1.9% (-11.6% y/y) but new vehicle prices improved 0.2% (5.8% y/y). Home furnishing prices rose 0.5% (6.4% y/y) while appliance prices strengthened 1.4% both m/m and y/y. Apparel prices increased 0.8% (3.1% y/y) and recreation product prices edged 0.1% higher (3.3% y/y) for a second straight month. Medical care product prices rose 1.1% (3.4% y/y) while sporting goods prices gained 0.5% (1.5% y/y).

Energy prices surged 2.0% last month (8.7% y/y) and followed declines in five of the preceding six months. Gasoline prices rose 2.4% (1.5% y/y). Fuel oil costs fell 1.2% (NSA) but rose 27.7% y/y. Natural gas prices jumped 6.7% (26.7% y/y) and electricity prices increased 0.5% (11.9% y/y).

Food prices rose 0.5% in January (10.1% y/y) as egg prices strengthened 8.5% (70.1% y/y). Meat, poultry & fish prices eased slightly (+4.2% y/y) but cereal & bakery product prices surged 1.0% (15.6% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices fell 0.5% (+7.2% y/y) and dairy prices were little changed (14.0% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 0.4% (13.1% y/y).

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Higher shelter costs fuel latest upturn.
- Goods price inflation is tame.
- Energy prices rebound; food prices remain strong.

U.S. CPI Firms During January

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Retail gasoline prices declined in the week ended February 13 to $3.39 per gallon (-2.8% y/y) from $3.44 per gallon in the previous week. Prices remained below the mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon but above their late December 2022 low of $3.09. The retail price of diesel fuel fell to $4.44 per gallon (+10.6% y/y) last week from $4.54 per gallon in the previous week. The price reached a recent peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June 2022.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $77.51 per barrel (-14.5% y/y) in the week ended February 10. Its recent high was $120.46 in the second week of June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $80.14 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil rose to $83.30 per barrel last week from $81.87 per barrel in the previous week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $85.98 per barrel.

The price of natural gas declined for the eighth consecutive week, falling to $2.34/mmbtu (-44.2% y/y) in the week ended February 10, its lowest level since October 2020. The latest price was down from $6.78/mmbtu in the third week of December. The most recent peak was $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August. Yesterday, the price was $2.42/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended February 3, gasoline demand declined 2.8% from a year earlier after having fallen 1.9% y/y in prior week. These declines compare to 15.2% y/y growth at the end of 2021. Demand for all petroleum products fell 8.2% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% annual growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries fell 2.5% y/y. 

Gasoline inventories declined 3.5% y/y in the week ended February 3 while crude oil inventories slumped 17.2% y/y.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended February 3 fell w/w to 28.9 days from 29.1 days in the previous week. The supply of crude oil eased to 30.2 days from 30.5 days in the prior week.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY**.

-	Gasoline prices fall again.
-	Crude oil prices increase.
-	Natural gas prices continue to decline.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 1.8% (-13.5% y/y) during the four weeks ended February 10 following stronger gains during the prior three four-week periods. The index has been trending sideways since the end of September. 

**Crude oil & benzene** costs gained 3.4% (-5.6% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of crude oil rose 0.5% to $76.23 per barrel in four weeks but fell 15.6% y/y. The price of the petro-chemical benzene increased 17.6% (3.3% y/y) during the last four weeks. Excluding crude oil & benzene, the industrial commodity price index rose 1.8% in four weeks (-13.3% y/y).

The **miscellaneous** price index rose 2.9% (-18.4% y/y) during the last four weeks. Framing lumber prices strengthened 19.3% in four weeks (-59.6% y/y) while natural rubber prices rose 5.1% (-6.5% y/y) in four weeks.

Prices in the **metals** group rose 1.7% (-16.9% y/y) in the last four weeks. Zinc prices were up 2.2% in four weeks (-12.1% y/y) while aluminum prices recently rose 4.5% (-22.6% y/y). The cost of scrap copper strengthened 2.0% in the last four weeks (-9.7% y/y) while steel scrap costs rose 1.6% (-16.2% y/y). Tin prices rose 5.9% (-36.3% y/y). Lead prices weakened 5.2% (-5.5% y/y) in the last four weeks.

Prices in the **textile** group eased 0.3% during the last four weeks but fell 7.5% y/y. Cotton prices eased 0.5% and declined 32.3% y/y. The cost of burlap eased 2.6% (-13.7% y/y) in the last four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY**databases.

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-	Crude oil & metals prices stay firm.
-	Textile prices ease.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Gains Moderate

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The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $38.8 billion during January following a surplus of $118.7 during January FY’22. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $110.0 billion surplus for January. For the first four months of the current fiscal year, the federal government ran a budget deficit of $460.2 billion versus a deficit of $259.0 billion over the same period last year.

Overall revenues declined 2.9% so far during FY’23 versus FY’22. Individual income tax receipts fell 7.0% y/y. Corporate tax payments increased 12.4% y/y this fiscal year. Social insurance revenues rose 7.4% y/y and excise taxes grew 1.2% y/y so far in FY’23.

Federal government outlays increased 8.8% y/y so far in FY’23. Social Security outlays increased 9.4% y/y so far in FY’23. National defense outlays grew 4.1% y/y. Interest payments surged 42.6% y/y so far in FY’23. To the downside, income security payments fell 6.8% y/y. Outlays on health programs declined 3.4% y/y while Medicare outlays fell 5.0% y/y so far in FY’23.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Revenues decline with lower personal tax receipts.
- Spending surges as Social Security & interest outlays jump.

U.S. Government Budget Deficit Surprises in January

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The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index increased 7.3% (-28.8% y/y) to 101.2 in December after rising 3.3% to 94.3 in November, revised from 95.5. These increases followed declines in both October and September. Affordability remained down 42.3% since the most recent high in January 2021.

The December gain occurred as the median price of an existing single-family home fell 1.6% (+2.0% y/y) to $372,700. It was the sixth consecutive monthly decline. The average mortgage rate fell to 6.44% from 6.89%, but it remained above the December 2020 low of 2.73%. Principal & interest payments declined 6.0% (+49.1% y/y) to $1,873 per month.

Median family income rose 0.9% (6.2% y/y) to $90,984 in December following a 0.8% November gain. That lowered the payment as a percent of income to 24.7% from a high of 27.4% in October. It remained above its most recent low of 14.2% in January 2021.

Affordability rose in each of the four Census regions. In the West, it rose 8.7% (-26.7% y/y) while in the South, it increased 6.5% (-29.5% y/y). In the Midwest, affordability rose 7.8% (-29.5% y/y) while in the Northeast, it improved 10.9% (-28.3% y/y).

The Housing Affordability Index equals 100 when a median-income borrower qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home. Until the HAI fell below 100 in May 2022 (98.3), it had exceeded 100 in each month since July 1990, reaching its all-time high of 213.3 in January 2013.

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver's **REALTOR** database. Median home sale prices are also located in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data can be found in **SURVEYW**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

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- Home prices & interest rates fall again.
- Family income continues to improve.

U.S. Housing Affordability Continues to Rise in December

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 7.1% (2.6% y/y) to 196,000 in the week ended February 4 from 183,000 during the prior week. Expectations had been for a rise to 192,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of initial claims of 189,250, a new low, compared with 192,000 in the prior week. This remained down from a 249,500 high in the first week of August 2022.

In the week ended January 28, continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance rose to 1.688 million (-3.2% y/y) from 1.650 million in the prior week. The 4-week moving average rose to 1.665 million from 1.650 million in the prior week. The claimant level has been rising since last June.

The insured unemployment rate in the week ended January 28 rose to 1.2% from 1.1% during each of the prior four weeks. It was increased from the record low range between 0.9% and 1.0% in place since mid-April. The series dates back to 1971.

In the week ended January 21, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs rose 2.8% (-7.5% y/y) to 1.943 million from 1.890 million in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.

The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending January 21 were in New Jersey (2.60%), California (2.30%), Alaska (2.23%), Massachusetts (2.12%), Puerto Rico (2.02%) and New York (1.91%). The lowest rates were in Alabama (0.29%), Virginia (0.31%), Kansas (0.37%), South Dakota (0.60%) and Nebraska (0.62%). Other major state rates include Pennsylvania (1.76%), Texas (0.97%) and Illinois (1.92%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's **WEEKLY** database, and they are summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW**. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims reach four-week high.

- Rise in continued weeks claimed reverses earlier declines.

- Insured unemployment rate climbs to highest in five weeks.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise

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