Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

USA| Nov 09 2022
U.S. Mortgage Applications Are Little Changed Even As Rates Rise
Purchase applications rise sharply following several weekly declines.

Applications for loan refinancing continue to fall.

Mortgage rates reverse earlier decline.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 08 2022
U.S. Small Business Index Weakens in October
Decline reverses September rise.

Economy & employment plans fall.

Current inflation index falls but expectations surge.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 08 2022
U.S. Gasoline & Oil Prices Improve
Gasoline prices rebound.

Crude oil prices rise again.

The cost of natural gas declines again.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 07 2022
U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Slows During September
Revolving credit growth halves.

Nonrevolving credit usage improves.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 04 2022
U.S. Payroll Gain Slows in October as Jobless Rate Increases
Payroll employment increases, but household jobs fall.

Monthly wage growth cools y/y.

Unemployment rate gives back its September decline.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 03 2022
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in October
Employment declines sharply.

Business activity & new orders also decline, but supplier deliveries improve.

Price index increases.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 03 2022
U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens in September
Deficit reverses two months of narrowing.

Imports rise and exports fall.

Trade deficit with China narrows.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 02 2022
FOMC Continues to Increase Funds Rate
At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed announced a widely expected 75 basis point increase in the target for the Federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% - 4.00%. It was the fourth consecutive increase of that magnitude in the last six months and places the rate at the highest level since January 2008.

The statement accompanying today's action reads, "The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time."

The Fed went on to state, "In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments."

In addition, the Fed will continue reducing its portfolio of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.

Today's action was endorsed by all members of the FOMC.

The statement issued following today's meeting can be found here.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 02 2022
ADP Employment Measure Improves in October; Earnings Remain Strong
Hiring at medium-sized firms picks up.

Large-company hiring eases after three strong increases.

Pay gains have been firm all year.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 01 2022
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Strengthen in October
Sales rise to highest level in nine months.

Auto & light trucks strengthen equally.

Imported vehicle gain lags somewhat.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 01 2022
JOLTS: Job Openings Increase Modestly in September; Hiring Eases
The number of job openings rise broadly.

New hires decline for fourth month in the last five.

But separations decline sharply as quits & layoffs decline.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Nov 01 2022
U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed
Gasoline prices fall further.

Crude oil prices improve from three-week low.

The cost of natural gas declines again.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief