Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• 

  USA| Feb 07 2023

  U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens in December

  • Deficit continues on overall trend of improvement.

  • Exports decline while imports rise.

  • Trade deficit with China widens m/m but shrinks y/y.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Feb 06 2023

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve

  • Metals & lumber costs lead gain.
  • Crude oil prices trend sideways.
  • Textile prices remain soft.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Feb 03 2023

  U.S. Job Growth Nearly Doubles in January

  • Largest monthly payroll gain seen in six months.
  • Earnings growth moderates.
  • Jobless rate falls to 50-year low.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Feb 02 2023

  U.S. Factory Orders Rebound in December

  • New orders recover sharp November decline.
  • Shipments continue to fall.
  • Unfilled orders and inventories strengthen.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Feb 02 2023

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Strengthen During January

  • Total sales are highest in nearly two years.
  • Light truck sales lead the increase.
  • Imported vehicle sales strengthen.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Feb 02 2023

  U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall

  • Claims move down for fourth straight week.
  • Continued weeks claimed slip.
  • Insured unemployment rate steadies.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Feb 01 2023

  Fed Continues Slower Pace of Policy Tightening

  At today’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the targeted Federal Funds Rate was raised by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50% - 4.75%. The action followed one 50 basis point increase and four consecutive 75 basis point increases. The rate was set to the highest level since October 2007.

  The Fed’s statement following the meeting contained the following indications.

  “The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

  “Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.”

  “The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously released plans.”

  Today’s action was endorsed by each member of the FOMC.

  The Fed issued a statement concerning the Longer-term Goals of Monetary Policy and it can be found here.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Feb 01 2023

  U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Declines in January

  • Drop is to lowest level since recession.
  • Component declines are broad-based.
  • Pricing power improves.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Feb 01 2023

  ADP Employment Growth Disappoints in January; Earnings Gain Slips

  • Employment gain is smallest in two years.
  • Small-sized firm hiring declines; medium-sized growth slows.
  • Pay gains continue to ease.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Jan 31 2023

  U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips in January

  • Expectations continue to fall.
  • Present situation index improves.
  • Inflation expectations edge higher.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Jan 31 2023

  U.S. FHFA House Price Index Eases in November

  • House price gains slow considerably y/y.
  • Weaker growth is exhibited around the country.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Jan 31 2023

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise; Crude Oil Holds Recent Gains

  • Gasoline prices highest in two months.

  • Crude oil prices also at two-month high.

  • Natural gas prices continue to weaken.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief