Tom Moeller

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The ISM U.S. manufacturing index declined to 47.4 in January from 48.4 in December and 49.0 in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The latest reading compares to the peak of 63.8 in March 2021 and stands at the lowest level since May 2020. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 48.0 for January.	

Weakness in the index was led by a decline in the new orders index to 42.5 from 45.1 in November, the sixth month in the last seven below the break-even level of 50. A lessened 15.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders in January while a higher 34.3% reported a decline. The production index eased to 48.0 last month from 48.6, remaining well below its high of 67.0 in March 2021. January’s inventory index fell to 50.2 from 52.3. Offsetting these declines, the supplier delivery index edged higher to 45.6 but is down over 40% from its high almost two years ago, indicating much faster product delivery speeds.

The employment index eased to 50.6 in January from 50.8 in December. A lessened 15.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment last month while a slightly increased 17.0% reported less hiring.

The prices index rose to 44.5 (NSA) in January from 39.4 in December. It stands well below its high of 92.1 in June of 2021. A higher 18.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while a lessened 29.3% reported price declines.

In other ISM series, the new export orders index rose to 49.4 in January from 46.2 November. It remained down, however, from its recent high of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index increased to 47.8 in January, but it is likewise off its high of 61.0 in June 2021. The order backlog index rose to 43.4 from 41.4.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 manufacturing purchasing executives from 20 industries, which correspond to their contribution to GDP in 50 states. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Drop is to lowest level since recession.
- Component declines are broad-based.
- Pricing power improves.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Declines in January

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Nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 106,000 last month (2.8% y/y) after rising 253,000 in December, revised from 235,000, and a 212,000 November gain, revised from 182,000. A 160,000 January increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" held m/m at 7.3% y/y, but was below a September high of 7.8% y/y. These compare to a low of 1.6% in March of 2021. The earnings increase was led by 10.1% growth in leisure & hospitality earnings, but that is down from 16.9% y/y growth in March 2022. Financial sector earnings rose a lessened 7.4% y/y. Factory sector pay rose a smaller 7.2% y/y while professional & business service sector earnings rose 6.7% y/y.

Small businesses hiring (1-49 employees) fell 75,000 (+0.2% y/y), down for the fifth month in the last six. Employment at firms with 50-499 employees rose 64,000 (5.3% y/y) after a 272,000 December gain. The three-month average increase was steady at 217,000. Employment at large-sized firms rose 128,000 (4.0% y/y) last month after rising 52,000 during December. Large-sized payrolls rose an average 55,000 during the last three months compared to a 171,000 average three-month gain as of last March.

By industry group, goods-producing employment fell 3,000 (+1.7% y/y) after a 32,000 December rise. Factory sector jobs rose 23,000 (2.7% y/y) after a 19,000 gain. Construction employment fell 24,000 (+0.7% y/y) after increasing 21,000 in December.

Service-producing jobs rose 109,000 last month (3.0% y/y) following a 221,000 December increase. Leisure & hospitality employment led the gain with a 95,000 increase (7.1% y/y) after rising 64,000 in December. Professional & business services employment improved 8,000 (3.7% y/y) after a 38,000 increase. Education & health care sector employment improved 12,000 (3.0% y/y) after strengthening 122,000 in December. Information sector jobs edged 5,000 higher (2.7% y/y) following a 3,000 increase. To the downside, trade, transportation & utilities payrolls fell 41,000 (+0.6% y/y) after a 6,000 November decline while financial activities employment rose 30,000 (0.9% y/y) after falling 5,000.

By Census region, employment in the South rose 55,000 (2.2% y/y) following a 63,000 gain. Employment in the Northeast improved 42,000 (4.3% y/y) following a 106,000 December increase. Jobs in the Midwest declined 40,000 (+1.6% y/y) as heavy snowfall reduced employment. In the West, payrolls rose 27,000 last month (3.6% y/y) after rising 69,000 in December.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

- Employment gain is smallest in two years.
- Small-sized firm hiring declines; medium-sized growth slows.
- Pay gains continue to ease.

ADP Employment Growth Disappoints in January; Earnings Gain Slips

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.7% (-3.6% y/y) during January to 107.1 following a 7.5% December rise to 109.0, revised from 108.3. A reading of 109.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for January.

The Expectations Index fell 6.7% (-12.4% y/y) to 77.8 but still has risen 12.2% during the last six months. The Present Situation Index rose 2.4% (4.4% y/y) to 150.9, the highest level in nine months.

Consumers' assessment of current business conditions improved slightly m/m as 20.2% of respondents characterized conditions as good, the most in four months. Labor market readings showed slightly more optimism this month. The jobs gap, representing the difference between respondents indicating that jobs are plentiful versus those saying jobs are hard to get, rose to 36.9% in January, the highest level also in four months. Calculated by Haver Analytics, this series has a 67% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years. The jobs plentiful measure rose to 48.2 from, up 3.4% in the last three months. The jobs hard-to-get measure fell to the lowest level in four months.

A lessened 18.6% of respondents felt that business conditions would get better in six months. Eighteen percent of respondents felt there would be more jobs in six months, up from a low of 15.1% in July. A steady 17.2% expected income to increase in six months, still up from a 15.3% July low.

The expected inflation rate in twelve months increased to 6.8%. It remained below the 7.9% high in June of last year but remained higher than the 4.4% low in January 2020.

The share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months fell to 6.3% in January from 6.6% in December, still higher than its 4.5% July low. Those planning to buy a major appliance held steady at 44.8% of respondents this month after surging to 52.4% in October. It remained above its 41.1% July low.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Expectations continue to fall.
- Present situation index improves.
- Inflation expectations edge higher.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips in January

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index eased 0.1% during November (+8.2% y/y) after holding steady in October. Annual price growth peaked at 1.9% y/y in June 2021. The home price series dates back to January 1991.

Prices rose 12.0% y/y in the South Atlantic region of the county and gained 9.5% in the West South Central area. Home prices rose 9.1% in the East South Central region and 8.7% y/y in the Middle Atlantic section.

Somewhat lesser home price growth was evident in New England (8.4% y/y), the West North Central area (8.3% y/y), East North Central region (8.0% y/y), Mountain (5.4% y/y) and Pacific (2.4% y/y) regions of the country.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associate quarterly index includes refinancing 	on the same kinds of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver's **USECON** database.

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- House price gains slow considerably y/y.
- Weaker growth is exhibited around the country.

U.S. FHFA House Price Index Eases in November

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Retail gasoline prices increased last week to $3.49 per gallon (3.6% y/y) after rising to $3.42 per gallon during the previous week. Prices remained below the mid-June peak of $5.01 per gallon. The retail cost of diesel fuel improved to $4.62 per gallon (20.2% y/y) last week from $4.60 in the prior week. The price reached a peak of $5.81per gallon in the third week of June.

The cost of West Texas Intermediate of crude oil of $80.46 per barrel (-7.0% y/y) in the week ended January 27 compared to $80.33 per barrel in the prior week. It remained below a high of $120.46 in the second week of June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $77.90 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil rose to an average $85.90 per barrel last week (-4.7% y/y) from $84.57 in the prior week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June of 2022. Yesterday, the price was $84.61 per barrel.

The price of natural gas declined to $3.08/mmbtu (-33.0% y/y) in the week ended January 27 after falling to $3.17/mmbtu in the previous week. The latest was down from $6.78/mmbtu in the third week of December. Prices peaked at $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August, up from a low of $3.56/mmbtu in the last week of December, 2021. Yesterday, the price was $2.82/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended January 20, gasoline demand declined 4.7% from a year earlier after falling 4.6% y/y during the prior four weeks. These declines compare to 15.2% y/y growth at the end of 2021. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 10.9% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries fell 6.5% y/y.

Gasoline inventories fell 6.4% y/y in the week ended January 20, while crude oil inventories declined 18.6% y/y.

Measured in days' supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended January 20 rose w/w to 29.7 days. The supply of crude oil rose to 30.8 days but remained below the 41.8 supply in early-March of 2021.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY**. 

- Gasoline prices highest in two months.

- Crude oil prices also at two-month high.
	
- Natural gas prices continue to weaken.

U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise; Crude Oil Holds Recent Gains

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Factory sector activity in Texas continued lackluster in January, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The general business activity index stood in negative territory at -8.4, after registering -20.0 in December. The index remained below the high of 37.6 in April 2021. The company outlook reading of -2.5 compared to -13.7 in December and was the eleventh straight negative reading. Data were collected from January 17-25 from 102 Texas manufacturers.

The growth rate of orders index fell to -12.3 in January from -9.3 in December. It was down from a high of 31.0 in April 2021. The production measure dropped to 0.2 from 9.1. A lessened 27.0% of respondents reported higher production while an increased 26.8% reported a decline. The shipments index fell to -6.3, down from a high of 33.8 in March 2021.

The labor market improved this month. The employment index rose to 17.6 from 13.6 in December and stood at the highest reading in six months. A greatly improved 31.0% of respondents reported more hiring this month while an increased 13.4% reported fewer hires. The wages & benefits index continued weak, falling to 30.5 from 34.2. It reached a high of 54.9 in March of last year. The hours worked index eased to 3.8 from 5.6 in December, down from a high of 24.3 in July 2021.

On the inflation front, the index for prices received for finished goods declined to 9.9 in January from 10.9. These readings are well below their October 2021 high of 51.3. A lessened 18.2% of respondents reported raising prices while an increased 8.3% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials fell to 20.5 from 21.9. It reached a high of 84.1 in November 2021.

The future general business activity index of -9.1 was the ninth consecutive negative reading. The future production index improved during the last three months. The future orders & shipments series also rose along with future employment. 

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- New orders, shipments & production are under pressure.
- Employment improvement picks up steam.
- Pricing power continues to weaken.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Index Stays Negative in January

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Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell 0.2% (+7.4% y/y) during December after easing 0.1% in November, revised from +0.1%. The decline matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

In December, real PCE declined 0.3% (+2.2% y/y) after falling 0.2% in November.  Real spending on durable goods declined 1.6% (+1.8% y/y) last month as spending on motor vehicle & parts decreased 2.3% (-1.4% y/y) after falling 5.2% in November. Real spending of furniture & appliances decreased 1.4% (+2.0% y/y) last month after a 1.3% November slip. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles weakened 0.5% (5.9% y/y) following a 0.7% drop.

Real spending on nondurable goods weakened 0.4% (-0.8% y/y) in December, after falling 0.2% in November. Outlays on gasoline & other energy products rose 1.6% (-3.8% y/y) following a 1.6% decline. Real apparel spending declined 1.7% (+3.2% y/y) last month after a 0.9% weakening and real food & beverage outlays eased 0.1% (-4.6% y/y), the same as in November.

Real spending on consumer services eased slightly last month (+3.3% y/y) after 0.2% increases in each of the prior three months. Real transportation services outlays rose 0.6% (2.1% y/y) after falling 1.0% in the prior month, while real housing & utilities expenditures rose 0.2% (1.8% y/y) after two months of 0.3% increase. Real healthcare spending gained 0.4% last month (2.3% y/y) after two months of 0.3% gain. Recreation services buying strengthened 0.4% (4.3% y/y) in December, double the prior month’s gain while real restaurant and hotel spending fell 1.0% (5.1% y/y) last month after a 0.5% fall in November. Real spending on financial services and insurance weakened 0.6% (+0.9% y/y) last month after rising 0.7% in November.

Personal income rose 0.2% (4.6% y/y) during December, as expected, after increasing 0.3% in November, revised from 0.4%. The gain reflected a 0.3% rise (5.3% y/y) in wages & salaries which was the same as in November. Proprietors' income also rose 0.3% (5.9% y/y) after easing during both of the prior two months. Rental income strengthened 0.8% (10.2% y/y) in December. Receipts on assets rose 0.1% (4.6% y/y) as interest income increased 1.0% (8.5% y/y) but dividend income fell 0.9% (0.5% y/y). Personal transfer receipts held steady (+1.8% y/y). Disposable income rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) in December, the same as in November, while real disposable earnings rose 0.2% (-1.7% y/y) for a second straight month.

The personal saving rate rose to 3.4% in December, the highest level in seven months. The level of personal savings increased 16.1% last month but remained 53.5% lower y/y.

The PCE chain price index edged 0.1% higher (5.0% y/y) last month, the same as in November. The index excluding food & energy rose 0.3% (4.4% y/y) after a 0.2% November gain. Energy prices weakened 5.1% (+6.9% y/y) after falling 1.5% in November while food prices rose 0.2% (11.2% y/y) after a 0.3% gain.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Real spending weakness centers on goods. 
- Personal income gains modestly.
- Price index edges higher.

U.S. Personal Spending Slips in December

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The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) rose 2.5% (-33.8% y/y) to 76.9 during December after falling 2.6% in November. Pending home sales have fallen 39.9% since their August 2020 high of 128.0.

Sales in the West increased 6.4% (-37.5% y/y) after three months of decline. Sales in the South gained 6.1% (-34.5% y/y) after six straight months of decline. Continuing to fall, sales in the Northeast were off 6.5% (-32.5% y/y) after a 0.7% November improvement. Sales in the Midwest eased 0.3% (-30.1% y/y) following a 6.6% November drop.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **SURVEYW** database.

- Increase is first in seven months.
- Monthly changes are mixed amongst regions.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise Moderately in December

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Real GDP grew 2.9% at an annual rate (1.0% y/y) during Q4'22 following 3.2% growth in Q3. The latest figure compares to expectations for a 2.7% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. 

Faster inventory accumulation added 1.5 percentage point to growth last quarter following a 1.2 percentage point subtraction in Q3. Improvement in the foreign trade deficit added 0.6 percentage point to growth last quarter after a 2.9 percentage point addition in Q3. The gain occurred as exports fell 1.3% (+5.3% y/y) after rising 14.6% in Q3. Imports weakened 4.6% (+1.7% y/y) following a 7.3% decline.

Growth in domestic final demand slowed to 0.8% (1.0% y/y) following a 1.5% Q3 rise. Real personal consumption expenditure growth of 2.1% last quarter (1.9% y/y) followed 2.2% growth in Q3. Durable goods outlays edged 0.5% higher (1.1% y/y). Spending on motor vehicles & parts gained 7.4% (-0.6% y/y), but furniture & appliance outlays rose just 0.4% (-0.2% y/y). Spending on recreational goods & vehicles declined 1.7% (+4.8% y/y). In the nondurable goods sector, spending rose 1.5% (-1.4% y/y). Outlays on food & beverages rose 1.1% (-4.9 y/y) following three straight quarters of decline. Clothing outlays improved 0.8% (1.4% y/y) while gasoline & oil expenditures rose 2.6% (-3.2% y/y), also following three straight quarters of decline. Purchases of services strengthened 2.6% (3.2% y/y). Housing & utilities outlays gained 1.8% (1.4% y/y) and health care outlays increased 3.7% (2.3% y/y). Spending on recreation increased 3.2% (4.5% y/y) while spending at restaurants & hotels increased 1.7% (5.76% y/y).

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Business fixed investment rose 0.7% (3.7% y/y) in Q4’22 after strengthening 6.2% in Q3. Structures investment rose 0.4% but had been falling since the end of 2019.  Equipment investment fell 3.8% (+3.8% y/y) reflecting a 23.4% decline (-2.1% y/y) in information processing equipment and a 31.0% gain (28.0% y/y) in transportation equipment. Investment in industrial equipment rose 2.2% (-1.0% y/y) while investment in intellectual property products rose 5.3% (7.9% y/y), remaining strong since the end of the 2020 recession. 

Residential investment declined for the seventh consecutive quarter, tumbling 26.7% (-19.2% y/y) in Q4.

Government spending increased 3.7% (0.8% y/y) in Q4’22, the same as in Q3. Federal government spending surged 6.2% (0.2% y/y) as defense spending rose 2.4% (-0.1% y/y) but nondefense outlays jumped 11.2% (0.6% y/y). State & local government spending rose 2.3% (1.3% y/y).

The GDP chain price index increased 3.5% (6.3% y/y) last quarter, the weakest increase in two years and down from 9.0% in Q2. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 3.2% increase. The PCE price Index rose 3.2% (5.5% y/y) after increasing 4.3%. The PCE price index less food & energy gained 3.9% (4.7% y/y), down from 5.6% in Q1. The nonresidential investment price index rose 3.5% (6.6% y/y). The equipment price index improved 6.2% (7.2% y/y) but the intellectual property products price index eased 0.5% (+2.2% y/y). The residential investment price index rose 7.7% (12.4% y/y) following an 8.1% gain. The government spending price index rose 3.0% (6.7% y/y).

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts. Both databases include tables of the newly published not seasonally adjusted data. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Restrained business investment accompanies steady gain in consumer spending.
- Inventory growth exceeds trade deficit improvement. 
- Price gains decelerate further.

U.S. GDP Growth Moderates as Final Demand Slows

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New single-family home sales during December increased 2.3% (-26.6% y/y) to 616,000 (AR) from 602,000 in November. October sales totaled 598,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 618,000 new homes.	

Last month's gain in new home sales reflected varied movement amongst the regions of the country. In the Midwest, sales surged 35.2% in December (-14.1% y/y) to 73,000 following a 10.2% November rise. Sales in the South rose 6.5% (-17.5% y/y) to 392,000 after a 3.9% November decline. To the downside, in the Northeast sales fell 19.4% (-21.6% y/y) to 29,000 after falling 12.2% in November. Sales in the West weakened 15.3% (-49.6% y/y) in December to 122,000 and reversed all of the November rise.

The median price of a new home fell 3.7% last month (+7.8% y/y) to $442,100 after falling 6.6% in November. The average sales price of a new home eased slightly (-7.6% y/y) to $528,400 following a 1.8% November decline. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market held steady (+18.5% y/y) at a seasonally adjusted 461,000 units, up from a low of 142,000 in July 2012. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale eased to 9.0 months, but remained up from a low of 3.3 months in August 2020. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market edged up to 2.0 from the record low of 1.5 months in both September & October. These figures were down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These data date back to January 1975.

New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database. 

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- Home sales rise for third straight month.
- Sales changes are mixed regionally.	
- Median sales price falls sharply.

U.S. New Home Sales Improve in December

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its index of regional nonmanufacturing activity rose to -6.5 during January from -12.8 in December. It was the sixth consecutive negative reading, indicating a decline in the region’s level of activity. At the company level, the index improved to 12.7 in January, a four-month high, from 8.0 in December.

The new orders & shipments indexes both rose sharply. The new orders index increased to 10.8, the highest level since March of last year following five months in negative territory. A higher 30.7% of respondents reported a rise in new orders while a lessened 25.9% reported a decline. The shipments reading rose to 20.3, the highest level since June.

The full-time employment index increased to 16.5, the highest level since June. A higher 22.8% of respondents reported a rise in employment while a lessened 6.3% reported a decline. The index of part-time employment rose to 5.3, the highest level in four months. Working the other way, the workweek reading fell sharply to 0.8, the lowest reading since February 2021.

On the pricing front, the index of prices paid deteriorated to 46.1 and continued its decline from 79.4 in October. A lessened 47.2% of respondents reported higher prices while a fewer 1.1% reported a decline. Working a bit higher was the prices received index to 24.1, but it failed to recover all of December’s decline.

The regional expectations at the index eased to 2.4 after rising to 6.4 in December. It was negative in October & November. It reached a high of 77.8 in July 2021. The expectations reading at the company level rose to 24.7 in January, its highest level in six months.

The Philadelphia Fed readings are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Despite m/m gain, level remains negative.
- New orders, sales & employment strengthen.
- Prices paid weaken further.

Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index Improves in January

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Retail gasoline prices increased last week to $3.42 per gallon (2.8% y/y) after rising to $3.31 per gallon during the previous week. Prices remained below the mid-June 2022 peak of $5.01 per gallon. The retail cost of diesel fuel rose to $4.60 per gallon (21.8% y/y) last week from $4.52 in the prior week. The price reached a peak of $5.81per gallon in the third week of June.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose to an average $80.34 per barrel (-6.7% y/y) in the week ended January 20 from $77.10 in the prior week and reached the highest level since the third week of November. Nonetheless, they remained below a high of $120.46 in the second week of June 2022. Yesterday, the price was $81.62 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude rose to an average $84.57 per barrel last week (-5.1% y/y) from $80.61 in the prior week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June of last year. Yesterday, the price was $87.54 per barrel.

The price of natural gas declined to $3.17/mmbtu (-29.6% y/y) in the week ended January 20 after falling to $3.46/mmbtu in the previous week. The latest was down from $6.35/mmbtu in the fourth week of December. Prices peaked at $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August, up from a low of $3.56/mmbtu in the last week of December, 2021. Yesterday, the price was $3.43/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended January 13, gasoline demand declined 4.6% from a year earlier after falling 4.8% y/y during the prior four weeks. These declines compare to 15.2% y/y growth at the end of 2021. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 6.7% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries fell 5.0% y/y.

Gasoline inventories fell 6.6% y/y in the week ended January 13, while crude oil inventories declined 18.5% y/y.

Measured in days' supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended January 13 rose w/w to 28.4 days. The supply of crude oil rose to 30.1 days but remained below the 41.8 supply in early-March of 2021.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY**.

- Gasoline prices rise to highest level since late-November.
- Crude oil prices strengthen also to two-month high.
- Natural gas prices continue to fall.

U.S. Gasoline & Oil Prices Strengthen

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