Economic momentum, one way or the other, is something the U.S. economy can't muster. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a negative 0.43 in August. That followed a marginally positive July number which was revised up [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Sep 26 2011U.S. Chicago Fed Index Returns To Negative Territory
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 23 2011
U.S. Leading Indicators Continue Upward But Momentum Slows
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicators index rose 0.3% during August following July's revised 0.6% increase, initially set at 0.5%. The gain beat the Consensus forecast for a 0.1% rise. Despite the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 22 2011
FHFA Reports Further Improvement In Its Home Price Index
The U.S. House Price Index from the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA) now has risen for four consecutive months. The July increase of 0.8% followed a 0.7% June rise. The gain lessened the y/y decline to 3.2%. The greatest [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 22 2011
U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Decline
Initial claims for jobless insurance retreated to 423,000 last week from 432,000 during the week prior (revised from 428,000). The figure roughly matched Consensus expectations for 422,000 claims, according to the Action Economics [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 21 2011
FOMC Holds Interest Rates Unchanged; Will Extend The Average Maturity Of Treasury Holdings
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee today left the Federal funds rate in a "range from 0 to 1/4 percent." The Fed funds rate has remained unchanged since late-2008 at its lowest level ever. The discount rate also was left [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 21 2011
U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise As Prices Fall
The National Association of Realtors reported that August sales of existing homes rose 7.7% to 5.030M (AR, 18.6% y/y) from an unrevised 4.670 in July. The y/y comparison is positive because of last year's decline after the ending of [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 21 2011
U.S. Mortgage Applications Improve As Rates Reach New Low
Lower interest rates certainly are generating strength in mortgage refinancing, but so far no similar increase in home sales. The total index of mortgage applications rose 0.6% last week to 702.7 (March 16, 1990 = 100). Overall, [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 20 2011
U.S. Chain Store Sales Reverse Earlier Gain
Chain store sales continue lethargic. Last week they fell 1.2% (+3.4% y/y) and fully reversed the prior period's gain. So far in September sales are down 1.0% from August when they fell 1.8% versus the July peak. During the last ten [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 20 2011
U.S. Gasoline Prices Fall
The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell another six cents last week to $3.60. Prices were down thirty-six cents since the May peak. Pump prices usually rise this time of year with increased seasonal demand. To account for [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 20 2011
U.S. Housing Starts Fall To Their Lowest In Three Months
Forward momentum has yet to build in the housing sector. Housing starts fell 5.0% to 571,000 units (AR) during August, the lowest level since May, after a deepened 2.3% July decline. Expectations had been for 593,000 starts which have [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 19 2011
U.S. Home Builders Report Disappoints
On two counts the National Association of Home Builders report on housing market activity this month was a disappointment. First, the September figure fell back to 14, near its lowest of the recovery. Second, it was short of Consensus [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 16 2011
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Recovers Slightly
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for mid-September bounced slightly higher to 57.8 following its August plunge to 55.7. A reading of 56.0 had been expected by Action Economics. Nevertheless, the reading was [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- of1068Go to 590 page