Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Sep 07 2012

  U.S. Payroll Gain Is Weak As Unemployment Rate Falls

  The job market is having trouble showing consistent improvement.Nonfarm payrolls grew 96,000 during August following revised changes of 141,000 and 45,000 during the prior two months, earlier reported as 163,000 and 64,000, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 06 2012

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Gains Again

  The Composite Index for the service and construction sectors from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose to 53.7 during August from an unrevised 52.6 July reading. The latest matched the highest level since March and beat [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 06 2012

  Challenger Indicates Fewest Job Cuts Since 2000

  The outplacement firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that 32,238 job cuts were announced during August. That was the lowest level since June, 2000. Job cut announcements fell in the retail, services, transportation, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 06 2012

  U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Filings Decline

  Initial jobless insurance claims fell to 365,000 during the week ended September 1, the lowest level in four weeks. At 377,000, the prior week was revised up from 374,000. Consensus expectations were for a decline to 370,000 during [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 06 2012

  ADP Reports Improved Job Gains

  Employment growth accelerated last month. August private sector payrolls rose 201,000 as reported by the payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and economic consultants Macroeconomic Advisers. The gain was the strongest [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 05 2012

  U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall Further With Interest Rates

  It seems odd, but fewer mortgage applications are accompanying falling interest rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association index of total mortgage applications fell another 2.5% last week (+27.5% y/y), the fifth straight week of sharp [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 05 2012

  U.S. Productivity Growth Is Revised Up<

  Workers produced more for their effort in Q2'12 than estimated last month. Nonfarm business sector productivity for last quarter was revised up to 2.2% (1.2% y/y) from last month's estimate of a 1.6% gain. However, since growth in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 05 2012

  U.S. Chain Store Sales Back Off

  Chain store sales slipped 0.4% last week (+3.7% y/y) and reversed the prior week's increase. For August as a whole, sales fell 1.6% m/m after a 3.3% July gain. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the y/y [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 05 2012

  U.S. Gasoline Price Rise Is Unrelenting

  For nine straight weeks gas prices have moved upward.The pump price of regular gasoline rose another six cents last week to $3.84 per gallon, the highest level since late April. And this is the time of year when seasonal price [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 05 2012

  U.S. Vehicle Sales Approach Recovery High

  Car shoppers were busy last month. Unit sales of light motor vehicles during August gained 3.1% m/m (16.6% y/y) to 14.52M (SAAR) according to the Autodata Corporation. The gain recouped July's drop and raised sales to their highest [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 05 2012

  U.S. Gasoline Price Rise Is Unrelenting

  
  

  For nine straight weeks gas prices have moved upward. The pump price of regular gasoline rose another six cents last week to $3.84 per gallon, the highest level since late April. And this is the time of year when seasonal price pressures should be easing with less driving. So when Haver Analytics made the adjustment, the seasonally-adjusted price for regular rose a greater eight cents w/w to $3.62 per gallon.

  The price for a barrel of light sweet crude oil pulled back 79 cents w/w to $95.68 per barrel last week but still was up from the late-June weekly low of $80.92. Yesterday, the cost of crude slipped further to $95.30 per barrel. Prices peaked at $113.93 in April, 2011. Brent crude also fell last week to $112.83 per barrel but recovered to $114.26 yesterday.

  Natural gas prices slipped last week to $2.73 per mmbtu but yesterday jumped back to $2.86, still roughly half the early-January 2010 peak of $6.50.

  Reduced driving and improved fuel economy lowered the demand for gasoline by 1.0% y/y last week. The demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, fell 13.6% y/y and distillate demand was off 6.2% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products ticked up 0.2% y/y. That comparison was improved from the 5.0% y/y decline this past fall.

  The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.  

  Weekly Price	09/03/12	08/27/12	08/20/12	Y/Y%	2011	2010	2009
  Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular)	3.84	3.78	3.74	4.6	3.52	2.78	2.35
  Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.)	95.68	96.47	94.42	8.6	95.14	79.51	61.39
  Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)	2.73	2.78	2.77	-32.3	3.99	4.40	3.95

  U.S. Chain Store Sales Back Off
  by Tom Moeller  September 5, 2012

  Chain store sales slipped 0.4% last week (+3.7% y/y) and reversed the prior week's increase. For August as a whole, sales fell 1.6% m/m after a 3.3% July gain. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at general merchandise stores. That correlation recently has increased.

  General merchandise store sales account for 15% of total retail sales. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

  The leading indicator of purchases at chain stores weakened for the sixth week in the last seven (+1.5% y/y). The composite leading economic indicator is compiled from four series: (1) The MBA's volume index of mortgage applications for home purchase, (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer buying conditions, (3) new filings for jobless benefits, and (4) the 30-year government bond yield.

  The chain store sales data are in Haver's SURVEYW. 

  ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)	08/31/12	08/25/12	08/18/12	Y/Y	2011	2010	2009
  Total Weekly Chain Store Sales	536.1	538.4	535.9	3.7%	3.2%	2.9%	0.1%
  W/W %	-0.4	0.5	-1.5	--	--	--	--

  U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall Further With Interest Rates
  by Tom Moeller  September 5, 2012

  It seems odd, but fewer mortgage applications are accompanying falling interest rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association index of total mortgage applications fell another 2.5% last week (+27.5% y/y), the fifth straight week of sharp decline. Applications have fallen 18.6% from the June high. Applications to refinance fell 3.0% w/w and by nearly one quarter during the last five weeks. Home purchase applications slipped 0.8% last week and they're down 13.2% from the June high. Applications for fixed interest rate loans have risen by nearly one-third y/y as lower mortgage rates are locked in. Conversely, variable rate loan applications have fallen 19.5% y/y.

  The effective rate on fixed-interest, conventional 15-year mortgages fell w/w to 3.19% compared to 3.47% in January. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan fell back to 3.89%. On a 30-year Jumbo loan, the effective rate declined to 4.14%. Though it's narrowed slightly of late, the spread between 15- and 30-year loan rates continued wide by historical standards. The effective interest rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage slipped to 2.77% and was down from its 3.93% high during February of last year.

  The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. The figures for weekly mortgage applications are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

  MBA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100)	08/31/12	08/24/12	08/17/12	Y/Y%	2011	2010	2009
  Total Market Index	766.1	786.1	821.3	27.5	572.3	659.3	736.4
  Purchase	178.4	179.9	177.4	11.8	182.6	199.8	263.5
  Refinancing	4,216.0	4,346.2	4,609.9	33.0	2,858.4	3,348.1	3,509.2
  15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%)	3.19	3.23	3.26	3.76 (8/11)	3.97	4.39	4.85

  U.S. Productivity Growth Is Revised Up
  by Tom Moeller  September 5, 2012

  Workers produced more for their effort in Q2'12 than estimated last month. Nonfarm business sector productivity for last quarter was revised up to 2.2% (1.2% y/y) from last month's estimate of a 1.6% gain. However, since growth in compensation also was revised up to 3.7% (2.2% y/y) from 3.3%, the rise in unit labor costs was lessened just slightly to 1.5% (0.9% y/y) from 1.7%. In the factory sector productivity growth was little-changed at a minimal 0.1% (2.9% y/y), but compensation growth was raised to 0.9% (0.4% y/y). As a result, growth in unit labor costs was raised to 0.8% (-2.4% y/y) from 0.3%.

  The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

  Productivity & Costs (SAAR,%)	Q2'12 (Revised)	Q2'12	Q1'12	Q4'11	Q2 Y/Y	2011	2010	2009
  Nonfarm Business Sector
  Output per Hour (Productivity)	2.2	1.6	-0.5	2.8	1.2	0.7	3.1	2.9
  Compensation per Hour	3.7	3.3	5.1	-0.7	2.2	2.7	2.0	1.4
  Unit Labor Costs	1.5	1.7	5.6	-3.3	0.9	2.0	-1.0	-1.5
  Manufacturing Sector
  Output per Hour	0.1	0.2	5.5	0.7	2.9	2.5	6.4	0.1
  Compensation per Hour	0.9	0.5	6.7	-6.0	0.4	2.6	1.1	4.1
  Unit Labor Costs	0.8	0.3	1.2	-6.6	-2.4	0.1	-5.0	4.0

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 04 2012

  U.S. Construction Spending Slumps

  The value of construction put-in-place fell a sharp 0.9% during July after an unrevised 0.4% June gain. A 0.4% increase had been expected. Private sector spending led the decline with a 1.2% drop (+15.0% y/y) after a 0.6% June uptick. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief