Global| Nov 30 2012ISM-Chicago Business Activity Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago reported that its Business Barometer improved this month to 50.4, its highest level in three months. Haver Analytics constructs a seasonally adjusted figure comparable to the ISM Composite [...]
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago reported that its Business Barometer improved this month to 50.4, its highest level in three months. Haver Analytics constructs a seasonally adjusted figure comparable to the ISM Composite index and it rose to 51.9, making up its October decline. During the last ten years there has been an 83% correlation between the adjusted Chicago index and the ISM Mfg. Composite index.
Improvement in the components during November centered on the employment, production, order backlogs and deliveries indexes. During the last ten years there has been an 80% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
Pricing power also improved m/m to its highest level since August of last year. During the last ten years there has been a 39% correlation between the prices paid index and three-month growth in the intermediate goods PPI.
The survey panel consists of 200 manufacturing purchasing professionals in the Chicago area. ISM Chicago is copyrighted by Deutsche Borse AG and the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago. The figures from the survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| Chicago ISM (Diff. Index, 50=No Chg.) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions | 51.9 | 50.5 | 51.6 | 60.0 | 61.4 | 59.0 | 41.7 |
| Business Barometer | 50.4 | 49.9 | 49.7 | 62.5 | 62.8 | 61.3 | 43.4 |
| New Orders | 45.3 | 50.6 | 47.4 | 68.5 | 65.5 | 63.5 | 45.3 |
| Production | 54.7 | 51.8 | 55.4 | 66.5 | 66.7 | 65.0 | 45.0 |
| Order Backlogs | 49.6 | 44.3 | 41.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 54.5 | 35.9 |
| Deliveries | 57.3 | 50.4 | 52.1 | 56.4 | 60.0 | 61.0 | 50.1 |
| Inventories | 47.1 | 49.6 | 51.1 | 54.3 | 55.2 | 50.5 | 33.4 |
| Employment | 55.2 | 50.3 | 52.0 | 58.6 | 59.5 | 55.2 | 34.6 |
| Prices Paid | 70.1 | 59.3 | 63.2 | 61.8 | 72.5 | 65.3 | 41.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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