Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Jul 17 2013

  U.S. Housing Starts Fall Led By Multi-family

  Housing starts during June fell 9.9% to 836,000 (+10.4% y/y) and reversed their May improvement to 928,000, initially reported as 914,000. The decline disappointed expectations for improvement to 950,000 starts in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 16 2013

  U.S. Chain Store Sales Backpedal

  The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported that chain store sales declined 1.1% last week (+1.7% y/y) but remained near the record high. So far in July sales are 3.5% above the June average after two [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 16 2013

  U.S. Home Builders Index Continues Its Sharp Improvement

  The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo jumped 6 points to 57 this month following a 7 point advance in June. The latest rise was to the highest level since January 2006 and [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 16 2013

  U.S. Industrial Production Improves

  Industrial production grew 0.4% during June following a 0.1% May slip, earlier reported as +0.1%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics survey. Factory sector production edged up 0.2% (1.7% y/y) following a 0.3% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 16 2013

  U.S. CPI Jumps With Energy Prices; Inflation Tame Elsewhere

  All of a sudden the cost of living has jumped. The consumer price index surged 0.5% in June (1.8% y/y) after a 0.1% May uptick. It was the firmest rise since February and beat expectations for a 0.3% increase. Prices excluding food [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 15 2013

  Empire State Factory Index Increases Reflecting Broad-based Improvement

  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicated that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions rose to 9.46 this month from an unrevised 7.84 in June. The latest figure beat Consensus expectations for 5.0. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 15 2013

  U.S. Business Inventories Tick Higher M/M But Trend Slows

  Total business inventories nudged up 0.1% during May (3.8% y/y) following a downwardly revised 0.2% April gain. The figure was accompanied by a 1.1% jump (3.1% y/y) in business sales. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio ticked [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 15 2013

  U.S. Retail Sales Driven Higher by Durables and Internet Sales

  The consumer remains in a buying mood, but purchases last month were not broadly based. Retail sales increased 0.4% during June (5.7% y/y) following a 0.5% May increase, initially reported as 0.6%. A 0.7% rise had been expected [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 12 2013

  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Is Fairly Stable

  The consumer remains upbeat. Consumer sentiment in mid-July fell marginally to 83.9 from 84.1 in June. The figure remained up, however, from its August 2011 low of 55.8 and was just slightly lower than its May peak of 84.5. Consensus [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 12 2013

  U.S. PPI Is Strengthened By Higher Energy Prices

  A surge in energy prices has changed the complexion of the U.S. inflation environment, for the worse. The producer price index for finished goods jumped 0.8% in June (1.8% y/y) following an unrevised 0.5% May increase. The gain [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 11 2013

  U.S. Budget Surplus Emerges as Medicare and Defense Payments Decline

  The Federal Government ran a $116.5B budget surplus during June of FY'13. During June of last year, the government ran a $59.7B deficit. The 2013 figure compared to consensus expectations for a $40.0B surplus. So far this fiscal year [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 11 2013

  U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Surprisingly Move Higher

  First time claims for unemployment insurance increased to 360,000 (-0.8% y/y) during the week ended July 6 from a little-revised 344,000 during the week prior. Consensus expectations were for 335,000 claims. The four week moving [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief