Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Feb 18 2014

  U.S. Home Builders Index Registers Historic Decline Due to Snowfall

  Heavy snowfall this month depressed the Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo by 10 points versus January to 46. The m/m decline was the largest in the series history and the index [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 18 2014

  Empire State Factory Index Backpedals

  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicated that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions for February fell to 4.48 from its two year high of 12.51 during January. The latest figure fell short of expectations [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 14 2014

  U.S. Factory Output Declines Sharply

  The output of U.S. factories fell 0.8% (+1.3% y/y) during January following 0.3% gains during the prior two months, both revised down from 0.5%. The latest decline was the largest since May 2009. Overall industrial production fell a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 14 2014

  U.S. Import Price Gain Stays Under Control With Lower Oil Prices

  Import prices ticked up a minimal 0.1% during January following a 0.2% December rise, revised from no change. A 0.1% slip had been expected in the Action Economics survey. A 1.2% decline (-4.0% y/y) in petroleum prices last month [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 13 2014

  U.S. Business Inventories Rise Last Quarter Led by Retail

  Total business inventories increased 0.5% in December (4.0% y/y) after a 0.4% November gain. Though the rate of inventory accumulation slowed late in the quarter, the entire quarter's gain of 1.7% was the swiftest since Q3 2013. This [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 13 2014

  U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Exceed Expectations

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance notched up to 339,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended February 8 versus an unrevised 331,000 during the week prior. Expectations had been for 330,000 claims in the Action Economic forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 13 2014

  U.S. Retail Sales Likely Constrained By Harsh Weather

  Retail spending declined 0.4% (+2.6% y/y) during January following a 0.1% December slip, revised down from +0.2%. The latest decline fell short of a 0.1% rise expected in the Action Economics survey. A 2.1% y/y decline (+4.1 y/y) in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 12 2014

  U.S. Year-to-Date Budget Deficit Continues To Shrink

  The Federal Government ran a $10.4 billion budget deficit during January of FY 2014. The latest figure compares to the Action Economics Forecast Survey expectation of a $30.0 billion deficit. In the first four months of this fiscal [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 12 2014

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Slip Led by Fewer Home Purchases

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total mortgage market index declined 2.0% last week (-50.1% y/y). Applications to purchase a home fell 5.0% (-12.2% y/y) while applications to refinance a loan slipped 0.2% (-60.8% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 11 2014

  U.S. Small Businesses Optimism Nudges Higher

  The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index improved to 94.1 during January from 93.9 in December. The latest figure remained down slightly from the May high of 94.4. For all of last [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 11 2014

  U.S. Home Affordability Deteriorates in 2013

  The National Association of Realtors reported that during all of last year its Housing Affordability Composite Index declined to 178.6, the lowest level since 2010. For December, the index slipped further to 168.1 from 170.90 during [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 11 2014

  U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate is the Highest in 2013 Since 2007

  Here's another sign of improvement in the U.S. labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that for all of last year the job openings rate improved to 2.8%, its highest [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief