Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| May 01 2014

  U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Move Higher

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 344,000 last week (3.6% y/y) from an upwardly revised 330,000 in the week ended April 19. Expectations had been for 320,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2014

  U.S. ISM Index Increase is Driven by Higher Employment

  Factory sector activity is improving with the end of a rough winter and more hiring. The Composite Index of Manufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management improved to 54.9 during April from an unrevised 53.7 in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2014

  U.S. Spending Strength Leaves Savings Rate Near Six-Year Low

  Shop 'til you drop. That mentality raised personal consumption expenditures by 0.9% in March (4.0% y/y) following a 0.5% February increase, revised from 0.3%. It was the strongest gain since August 2009. A 0.6% rise had been expected [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2014

  FOMC Sees Pickup in Economic Activity; Pares Back Bond Purchases Further

  At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed indicated that economic growth had picked up and that price inflation still was below its long run objective. Fiscal policy was seen as limiting the economy's [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2014

  Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Rebounds To Six-Month High

  Economic activity in the Midwest picked up this month. Chicago purchasing managers indicated that their April index of General Business Conditions rose to 63.0 after an unrevised fall to 55.9 in March. The figure was the highest since [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2014

  U.S. ADP Hiring Tally Is Strongest Since November

  ADP/Moody's National Employment Report reported a 220,000 rise (2.1% y/y) in nonfarm private sector jobs during April. Expectations were for a 200,000 gain in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last month's rise followed increases [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2014

  U.S. GDP Hardly Increases; Capital Spending and Exports Decline

  Real GDP ticked 0.1% higher (2.3% y/y) last quarter following an unrevised 2.6% gain in Q4 2013. The Department of Commerce indicated in this advance estimate that growth was its weakest since Q4 2012. Growth was well short of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2014

  U.S. GDP Hardly Increases; Capital Spending and Exports Decline

  Real GDP ticked 0.1% higher (2.3% y/y) last quarter following an unrevised 2.6% gain in Q4 2013. The Department of Commerce indicated in this advance estimate that growth was its weakest since Q4 2012. Growth was well short of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 29 2014

  U.S. Consumer Confidence Pulls Back Slightly

  Following a sharp rise in March, consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, eased to an index reading of 82.3 this month (+19.3% y/y) from an upwardly revised 83.9. The latest figure remained nearly the highest since [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 29 2014

  U.S. Chain Store Sales Build Upward Momentum

  The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported that chain store sales improved 1.6% (3.1% y/y) last week, the firmest gain in a month. The rise pulled sales up 3.1% versus last year, the strongest increase [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 29 2014

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue Upward

  The price for a gallon of regular gasoline increased to $3.71 last week, up 5.5% y/y. The price is close to the $3.78 per gallon peak reached in February of last year. To account for seasonal volatility, Haver Analytics constructs [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 28 2014

  Fed Bank of Dallas Company Outlook Survey is the Most Optimistic Since 2010

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its Company Outlook Index gained to 23.4 (SA) this month from 9.1 during March. It was the highest level since April 2010. The Production reading led the advance to 24.7, the highest [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief