Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Aug 11 2014

  N.Y. Fed: Consumer Income and Inflation Expectations Slip

  Income growth expectations, as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, deteriorated in July. The 2.2% expectation for next year's earnings growth reversed most of June's improvement, although it remained up slightly from the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 08 2014

  U.S. Wholesale Inventory Gain Remains Stable; Sales Moderate

  Inventories at the wholesale level rose 0.3% last month (7.9% y/y) following a 0.3% May increase, revised from 0.5%. Inventories of durable goods gained 0.7% (8.8% y/y). The rise was led by a 3.2% surge (11.4% y/y) in metal [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 08 2014

  U.S. Worker Productivity Rebounds; Unit Labor Costs Nudge Higher

  Nonfarm productivity increased at a 2.5% annual rate last quarter (1.2% y/y) following a 4.5% Q1 decline, revised from -1.7%. Real output growth of 5.2% (3.2% y/y), rebounding from a 2.4% Q1 drop, was accompanied by a 2.7% increase [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 07 2014

  U.S. Consumers Pull Back Credit Usage

  The Federal Reserve Board reported that consumer credit outstanding increased $17.3 billion (6.7% y/y) during June following an unrevised $19.6 billion May rise. Expectations were for an $18.0 billion increase, according to the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 07 2014

  U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Reach 2006 Low

  Job market improvement continues. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 289,000 (-13.7% y/y) during the week ended August 2 from 303,000 in the prior week, earlier reported as 302,000. The four-week moving average of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 06 2014

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue To Trend Sideways

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total Mortgage Market Volume Index gained 1.6% last week (-30.0% y/y), making up most of the prior week's decline. Applications remained two-thirds below the peak in September 2012. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 06 2014

  U.S. Trade Deficit Declines as Imports Fall

  The U.S. foreign trade deficit during June eased to $41.5 billion from $44.7 billion in May. The deficit was the smallest since January and shallower than consensus estimates for $44.3 billion in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 05 2014

  U.S. Energy Prices Remain Weak

  The price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined two cents last week to $3.52 (-3.2% y/y). Prices remained down from the $3.78 per gallon peak reached in February of last year. To account for seasonal volatility, Haver Analytics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 05 2014

  U.S. Factory Sector Orders and Backlogs Increase

  New orders to all manufacturers jumped 1.1% (1.5% y/y) in June following a 0.6% decline during May, revised from -0.5%. A 0.6% increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 1.7% rebound (-0.6% y/y) in durable goods [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 05 2014

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Return to March Low

  The price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined another five cents last week to $3.54 (-2.9% y/y). Prices remained down from the $3.78 per gallon peak reached in February of last year. To account for seasonal volatility, Haver [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 05 2014

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Garners Strength

  Activity in the service & construction sectors increased last month at its quickest rate since August 2005. The Composite Index for the service & building sectors from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose to 58.7 in July [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 04 2014

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Are Mixed

  Lower oil prices recently have countered increases in most other industrial commodity prices and left the overall trend muted. The industrial commodity price index, from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief