U.S. Gasoline Prices Return to March Low

The price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined another five cents last week to $3.54 (-2.9% y/y). Prices remained down from the $3.78 per gallon peak reached in February of last year. To account for seasonal volatility, Haver Analytics constructs factors for adjustment of pump prices. The adjusted cost of gasoline fell six cents to $3.46 per gallon, down for the fourth straight week.

WTI crude oil prices improved last week to $103.44 per barrel (-2.4% y/y). The seasonally adjusted price, generated by Haver, slipped to $101.18 per barrel but remained up sharply from $92.19 in early-May. Yesterday, prices fell back to $101.67. Brent crude oil prices rose last week to $106.40 per barrel (-1.9% y/y) and yesterday were $106.90.

Natural gas prices fell significantly last week to $3.80 per mmbtu (+3.8% y/y), the lowest level since late-November. Prices improved yesterday to $3.82.

The demand for all petroleum products declined 2.0% last week versus last year. Gasoline demand fell 1.0% y/y. Residual fuel oil needs, used for heating, fell 19.9% y/y while distillate demand fell 6.2% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products nudged 0.3% higher y/y and gasoline inventories fell 2.2% y/y.

The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the petroleum demand and inventory figures are in OILWKLY.

New orders to all manufacturers jumped 1.1% (1.5% y/y) in June following a 0.6% decline during May, revised from -0.5%. A 0.6% increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 1.7% rebound (-0.6% y/y) in durable goods orders led the total higher. Factory sector orders excluding transportation equipment improved 0.8% (4.9% y/y), the third increase in the last four months. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) recovered 0.6% (3.5% y/y) but have improved just 0.6% since December. Shipments of plastics & rubber rebounded another 1.0% (4.5% y/y). Shipments from chemical plants improved 0.5% but were off 1.2% y/y. Textile mill shipments gained  0.5% (2.9% y/y) while apparel shipments jumped 2.6% (13.3% y/y).

Unfilled orders jumped 1.0% (6.8% y/y), strong for the fourth consecutive month. Excluding the transportation sector, order backlogs rose 1.2% (6.2% y/y). Backlogs of electrical equipment jumped 2.4% (10.3% y/y) and unfilled orders of furniture gained 1.8% (6.1% y/y). Unfilled orders in the machinery sector jumped 1.9% (12.5% y/y) but backlogs of computers & electronics rose just 0.6% (5.2% y/y).

Inventories in the factory sector improved a lessened 0.3% (4.0% y/y) after a 0.8% May rise. In the durable goods sector, inventories rose 0.4% (5.8% y/y) led by a 0.8% increase (4.8% y/y) in primary metals. Transportation sector inventories also gained 0.8% (10.7% y/y). Amongst nondurable goods industries, inventories ticked 0.1% higher (1.4% y/y), held back by a 0.6% decline in basic chemicals (-0.8% y/y). Apparel inventories offset this decline with a 1.9% rise and they're up by one-quarter over the last twelve months.

The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

The price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined two cents last week to $3.52 (-3.2% y/y). Prices remained down from the $3.78 per gallon peak reached in February of last year. To account for seasonal volatility, Haver Analytics constructs factors for adjustment of pump prices. The adjusted cost of gasoline fell five cents to $3.41 per gallon, down for the fifth straight week.

WTI crude oil prices fell further last week to $101.38 per barrel (-2.4% y/y) from $104.35. It was the lowest level since early May.. The seasonally adjusted price, generated by Haver, declined to $100.15 per barrel but remained up sharply from $92.19 in early-May. Yesterday, prices fell further to $98.29. Brent crude oil prices declined last week to $105.73 per barrel (-2.7% y/y) and yesterday were $103.96.

Natural gas prices declined last week to $3.76 per mmbtu (+9.5% y/y), the lowest level since late-November. Prices improved yesterday to $3.82.

The demand for all petroleum products declined 0.9% last week versus last year. Gasoline demand fell 1.0% y/y. Residual fuel oil needs, used for heating, fell by more than one-third y/y while distillate demand fell 3.1% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products inched 0.2% higher y/y and gasoline inventories fell 2.3% y/y.

The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the petroleum demand and inventory figures are in OILWKLY.