Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Sep 16 2016

  U.S. CPI Firms; Core Price Increase Also Picks Up

  Consumer price inflation rose during August. The consumer price index increased 0.2% (1.1% y/y) following little change in July. A 0.1% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 16 2016

  Empire State Factory Sector Index Remains Negative

  The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions remained below zero during September. The index level of -1.99 was slightly improved, however, versus -4.21 in August. Expectations had been for -1.0 in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 15 2016

  Philadelphia Fed Factory Business Outlook Survey Improves

  The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased in September to 12.8 from an unrevised 2.0 in August. It was the firmest reading since February 2015, and was higher than [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 15 2016

  U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Are Little-Changed

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up to 260,000 (-3.3% y/y) in the week ending September 10 from an unrevised 259,000 in the prior week. The four-week moving average eased to 260,750. The Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 15 2016

  U.S. Industrial Production Declines

  Industrial output declined 0.4% during August (-1.1% y/y) following a 0.6% July increase, revised from 0.7%. It was the first production decline in three months and compared to a 0.2% shortfall expected in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 15 2016

  U.S. Retail Sales Decline Is Led by Autos

  Total retail sales & spending at restaurants fell 0.3% during August (+1.9% y/y) following a 0.1% July uptick, revised from little change. Expectations had been for a 0.1% slip in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Auto sales led [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 14 2016

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Jump as Interest Rates Remain Low

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Market Volume Index increased 4.2% (43.0% y/y) last week following a 0.9% rise. Purchase applications surged 8.6% (20.9% y/y) and made up declines during July and [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 14 2016

  U.S. Import Prices Slip with Lower Fuel Costs; Export Prices Decline

  Import prices eased 0.2% during August (-2,2% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% July gain. The rise compared to expectations for no change in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. A 2.8% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 13 2016

  U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens

  The U.S. Treasury Department reported a Federal budget deficit of $107.1 billion during August. That compared to a $64.4 billion deficit in August of last year. A $100 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 13 2016

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Ease; Natural Gas Remains Firm

  Regular gasoline prices fell to $2.20 per gallon (-7.3% y/y) last week following an easing to $2.23 during the week prior, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Prices remained down versus a 2014 high of $3.71 per gallon. Haver [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 13 2016

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Eases

  The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.2% during August to 94.4 following an unrevised 0.1% July uptick. Optimism remained down 5.9% versus its peak in December 2014. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 12 2016

  NABE Maintains Expectation for Moderate 2017 Economic Growth; 2016 Estimate Reduced

  The National Association for Business Economics held steady its expectation for 2.3% real U.S. economic growth next year. This year's estimate was reduced again, however, to 1.5% from 1.8%, and from 2.6% projected in December. The [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief