Global| Jan 19 2017U.S. Housing Starts Reach 2007 High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The housing market exhibited firm growth in 2016. Overall housing starts increased to 1.168 million, the highest level since 2007. The gain was paced by a rise in single-family starts to 783,000. Multi-family starts rose to 385,000. [...]
The housing market exhibited firm growth in 2016. Overall housing starts increased to 1.168 million, the highest level since 2007. The gain was paced by a rise in single-family starts to 783,000. Multi-family starts rose to 385,000. Building permits declined slightly last year to 1.171 million.
During December alone, total starts rebounded 11.3% to 1.226 million (AR, 5.7% y/y), and recouped most a November decline to 1.102 million in November, revised from 1.090. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.184 million starts. Starts of single-family homes declined 4.0%, however, in December to 795,000 (+3.9% y/y) from 828,000. It was the lowest level of starts in three months. Starts of multi-family units jumped by more than one half m/m to 431,000 (9.1% y/y), though these starts were very erratic m/m all during 2016. Building permits in December eased 0.2% (+0.7% y/y) to 1.210 million. They reached a peak of 1.334 million in June of 2015.
By region, housing starts in the Midwest, jumped 38.4% y/y to 227,000. Starts in the West also grew roughly one-third y/y to 331,000. In the South, however, starts weakened 3.2% y/y to 572,000. In the Northeast, starts declined 38.5% y/y to 96,000 during December.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,226 | 1,102 | 1,320 | 5.7 | 1,168 | 1,108 | 1,001 |
| Single-Family | 795 | 828 | 868 | 3.9 | 783 | 713 | 648 |
| Multi-Family | 431 | 274 | 452 | 9.1 | 385 | 395 | 356 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 96 | 81 | 161 | -38.5 | 116 | 136 | 109 |
| Midwest | 227 | 173 | 197 | 38.4 | 182 | 151 | 159 |
| South | 572 | 580 | 619 | -3.2 | 584 | 556 | 497 |
| West | 331 | 268 | 343 | 32.9 | 286 | 265 | 236 |
| Building Permits | 1,210 | 1,212 | 1,260 | 0.7 | 1,171 | 1,178 | 1,053 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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