EMU IP Sinks in August

Industrial output in the European Monetary Union fell by 1.2% in August after rising by 0.5% in July. Manufacturing output followed these trends as well, falling by 1.2% in August after rising 0.8% in July. Sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three months show a deteriorating trend with 12-month growth up by 0.5%, six-month growth falling at a 1.6% annual rate, and three-month growth falling at a 5.9% pace. Manufacturing largely follows the same pattern with a 12-month increase of 0.8%, a six-month decline at a 1.2% annual rate, and a 3-month decline at a 5.1% annual rate.

In the quarter to date, both overall industrial production and manufacturing industrial production are falling.

Turning to sectors, most sectors posted declines in August with the exception being consumer nondurables where there was an increase in output of 0.1%. This is in sharp contrast to July where, despite a small increase in output, there were increases in output for manufacturing and for overall for consumer goods as well as strength for consumer durables. Consumer nondurables, intermediate goods, and capital goods in July revealed a very good month. However, industrial production was following that up with an August that is unwinding most of that rebound. However, for June, the month prior to July, they also had widespread declines with declines in every single sector except intermediate goods where output was flat. These conditions leave us with trends for manufacturing that are decelerating as noted above led by decelerations in consumer goods output. Intermediate goods and capital goods break with this pattern as intermediate goods show declines over 12 months and six months but log that 0.9% increase in output over three months; for capital goods there are declines in output over 12 months and over three months with the sharp decline over three months in between over six months there was a very small increase of 0.4%.

The final column presents year-to-date percentile standings based on 12-month growth rates. The overall growth rate for industrial production as well as manufacturing log rankings only in their 40th percentile, below their respective median for the period. Consumer goods, however, log a strong increase and post a 95th percentile standing, led by a 95.9 percentile gain for consumer nondurables. Capital goods, an important sector for the monetary union, has only a 27.5 percentile standing.

Across countries- Rankings for manufacturing across countries are also relatively weak with 7 of 13 of the country's logging rankings that are below their 50th percentile granted 2 of the countries Spain Austria and Belgium have rankings above their 45th percentile putting them closer to a ranking that would be a median ranking that occurs at the 50th percentile mark. Two of the countries with increases above the But it's also true that 50th percentile have only a 50.9 percentile and a 51.8 percentile standing and those countries have France and Italy tiny Luxembourg shows the manufacturing sector with growth in its 95th percentile Ireland and Portugal post growth rates in their 80th percentile with multi posting with growth rate in 71st percentile. There's no significant strength in any country with size in the monetary union.

Finally on a quarter-to-date basis eight of the countries show declines with two months of data for the quarter.

This report continues the string of disappointing reports for growth and industrial output. The monetary union report shows little to spur optimism.