Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Oct 17 2016

  Empire State Factory Sector Index Deteriorates; Prices Improve

  The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions for October remained below zero for the third straight month as it fell to -6.80 from -2.00 in September. Earlier figures were revised slightly. Expectations had been for [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 17 2016

  U.S. Budget Deficit Reaches Three-Year High

  The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during fiscal year 2016 the federal government ran a budget deficit of $587.4 billion versus $438.9 billion in FY'15. It was the largest budget shortfall since FY'13, and brought the deficit [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2016

  Business Inventories Rise

  Total business inventories increased 0.2% during August (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised little change in July. Total business sales also increased 0.2%, and were little changed y/y. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable at [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2016

  U.S. Producer Prices Increase Broadly

  The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index increased 0.3% (0.7% y/y) during September following unrevised stability in August. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding food & energy, prices [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2016

  U.S. Retail Sales Bounce Back M/M, but Forward Momentum Fades

  Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.6% during September (2.7% y/y) following a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.3%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 13 2016

  U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Remain at 1973 Low

  Initial unemployment insurance filings held steady at 246,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended October 8. The prior week's level was revised from 249,000. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 249,250, the lowest level since [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 13 2016

  U.S. Import Price Increase Led by Oil; Export Prices Rise

  Import prices notched 0.1% higher (-1.1% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.2% August decline. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. A 1.2% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 12 2016

  U.S. JOLTS: The Labor Market Cools Off

  The total job openings rate declined to 3.6% in August, down from the record high of 3.9% in July. It was the lowest rate since December. The private sector job openings rate fell to 3.9%, a three month low. In the government sector, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 12 2016

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Increase

  Regular gasoline prices rose to $2.27 per gallon (-2.8% y/y) last week, the highest level since early July. Prices remained down, however, versus a 2014 high of $3.71 per gallon. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 11 2016

  U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index Remains Negative

  The Labor Market Conditions Index from the Federal Reserve Board includes 19 indicators of labor market activity, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment. These include jobs, workweeks, wages, vacancies, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 11 2016

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Dips Again

  The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index eased 0.3% during September to 94.1 following an unrevised 0.2% August dip. Optimism remained down 6.2% versus its peak in December 2014. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 07 2016

  U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Strengthens

  Consumer credit outstanding increased $25.9 billion (6.8% y/y) during August following a $17.8 billion July improvement, revised from $17.7 billion. It was the strongest rise since September 2015, and one of the firmest of the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief