Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Oct 19 2016

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Improve

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Market Volume Index rose 0.6% last week (18.5% y/y) following a 6.0% fall. Applications to purchase jumped 3.0% (13.0% y/y), and made up the prior week's decline. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 19 2016

  U.S. Housing Starts Decline, but Building Permits Rise

  Housing starts fell 9.0% during September (-11.9% y/y) to 1.047 million units (AR) following a 5.6% August decline to 1.150 million, revised from 1.142 million. It was the lowest level of starts since March of last year. Expectations [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 18 2016

  U.S. Home Builders Index Eases

  The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell 3.1% during October to 63 (6.7% y/y) following an unrevised jump to 65 in September. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 18 2016

  U.S. Crude Oil & Natural Gas Prices Strengthen

  WTI crude oil prices rose to $50.42 per barrel last week (7.7% y/y). Yesterday, prices eased to $49.94 per barrel, but they remain up from a daily low of $26.21 per barrel in February. Brent crude oil prices rose to $52.26 per barrel [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 18 2016

  U.S. CPI Increase Driven by Energy Costs; Core Weakens

  The consumer price index increased 0.3% (1.5% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.2% rise. It was the strongest increase since April, and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 17 2016

  U.S. Industrial Production Edges Up as Factory Output Firms

  Industrial output nudged 0.1% higher (-1.0% y/y) during September following a 0.5% August decline, revised from -0.4%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Factory sector production increased 0.2% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 17 2016

  Empire State Factory Sector Index Deteriorates; Prices Improve

  The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions for October remained below zero for the third straight month as it fell to -6.80 from -2.00 in September. Earlier figures were revised slightly. Expectations had been for [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 17 2016

  U.S. Budget Deficit Reaches Three-Year High

  The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during fiscal year 2016 the federal government ran a budget deficit of $587.4 billion versus $438.9 billion in FY'15. It was the largest budget shortfall since FY'13, and brought the deficit [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2016

  Business Inventories Rise

  Total business inventories increased 0.2% during August (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised little change in July. Total business sales also increased 0.2%, and were little changed y/y. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable at [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2016

  U.S. Producer Prices Increase Broadly

  The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index increased 0.3% (0.7% y/y) during September following unrevised stability in August. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding food & energy, prices [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2016

  U.S. Retail Sales Bounce Back M/M, but Forward Momentum Fades

  Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.6% during September (2.7% y/y) following a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.3%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 13 2016

  U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Remain at 1973 Low

  Initial unemployment insurance filings held steady at 246,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended October 8. The prior week's level was revised from 249,000. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 249,250, the lowest level since [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief