Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Jun 16 2017

  U.S. Labor Market Improvement Slows

  The Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) from the Federal Reserve Board includes 19 indicators of labor market activity, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment. These include jobs, workweeks, wages, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 16 2017

  U.S. Housing Starts Decline to Eight-Month Low

  New home building continued to exhibit weakness last month. Total housing starts fell 5.5% (-2.6% y/y) during May to 1.092 million (AR) from 1.156 million in April, revised from 1.172 million. It was the lowest level of starts since [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 15 2017

  Empire State Business Conditions Index Recovers

  Following three months of decline, the Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions for June jumped to 19.8 from -1.0 in May. It was the highest level since September 2014. A reading of 4.5 was expected in the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 15 2017

  Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Index Falls Sharply

  The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index declined to 27.6 during June and reversed most of May's jump to 38.8 in May. The latest monthly reading compared to expectations for [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 15 2017

  U.S. Home Builder Index Declines

  The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo declined 2.9% to 67 during June following the May increase to 69, revised from 70. The index remained 11.7% higher y/y. The NAHB figures are [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 15 2017

  U.S. Industrial Production Holds Steady While Factory Output Declines

  Industrial production was unchanged last month (2.1% y/y) following a 1.1% April jump, revised from 1.0%. A 0.1% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing sector output declined 0.4% (+1.4% y/y) [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 15 2017

  U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Decline

  Initial unemployment insurance filings during the week ended June 10 fell to 237,000 (-12.3% y/y) from an unrevised 245,000 during the prior week. Expectations called for 240,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 14 2017

  FOMC Lifts Interest Rates

  At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the targeted federal funds rate was increased 25 basis points to a range of 1.00% to 1.25%. The targeted range has been raised four times since the low of 0.12% in place from [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 14 2017

  U.S. CPI Slips; Core Increases Minimally

  The Consumer Price Index eased 0.1% during May (1.9% y/y) following a 0.2% April rise. Expectations had been for no change in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Consumer prices excluding food & energy ticked 0.1% higher for a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 14 2017

  U.S. Retail Sales Decline; Nonauto Sales Weaken

  Total retail sales and spending at restaurants fell 0.3% during May (+6.0% y/y) following an unrevised 0.4% April rise. A 0.1% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales at motor vehicle & parts [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 13 2017

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Fall

  Regular gasoline prices dipped to $2.37 per gallon last week (-1.4% y/y), the lowest level in four weeks. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. Since prices normally rise this [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 13 2017

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Remains Steady & Strong

  The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index held at 104.5 during May. The index remained up 11.4% from the level of 93.8 in May 2016. An increased 39% of firms reported that they [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief