Global| Aug 15 2017U.S. Retail Sales Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer rediscovered the spending spirit last month. Total retail sales and spending at restaurants increased 0.6% (3.6% y/y) during July following a 0.3% June rise, revised from -0.2%. It was the largest increase this year. A [...]
The consumer rediscovered the spending spirit last month. Total retail sales and spending at restaurants increased 0.6% (3.6% y/y) during July following a 0.3% June rise, revised from -0.2%. It was the largest increase this year. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Leading the rise were sales at motor vehicle & parts dealerships which jumped 1.2% (5.5% y/y), compared to a 0.4% gain (-5.9% y/y) in unit motor vehicle sales. Retail sales excluding autos increased 0.5% (3.1% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick, revised from -0.2%. This was the largest gain since January. A 0.3% rise had been expected.
Spending on nonauto discretionary items generally firmed last month. Sales at nonstore retailers increased 1.3% (11.4% y/y) following two months of 1.0% rise. Purchases at building materials and garden equipment stores strengthened 1.2% (8.5% y/y) after a 1.1% gain. Furniture & home furnishings store sales rose 0.4% (4.3% y/y) following two months of larger gains. Sporting goods & hobby shop store sales gained 0.3% (-5.7% y/y) after declines during three of the prior four months. General merchandise store sales ticked 0.1% higher (1.4% y/y) following two months when sales were unchanged. Declining were electronics & appliance store sales which fell 0.5% (-1.4% y/y), down for the third straight month. Clothing & accessory store sales were off 0.2% (0.1% y/y) following a 0.7% rise.
In the nondiscretionary sector, health & personal care store sales increased 0.4% (1.6% y/y) after two months of 0.3% increase. Food & beverage store sales rebounded 0.4% (1.4% y/y) following a 0.7% decline.
Restaurant sales improved 0.3% (2.1% y/y), about as they have for three straight months.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast expectations are included in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 4.3 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.6 | 0.3 | -0.0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 3.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | -0.4 | -1.5 | -3.1 | 1.4 | -5.7 | -17.6 | -2.0 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 6.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
