Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Apr 05 2018

  U.S. Trade Deficit Increases to Highest Since 2008

  The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $57.6 billion during February from $56.7 billion in January, revised from $56.6 billion. It was the largest deficit since October 2009. A $56.7 billion deficit had been expected [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 04 2018

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall; Interest Rates Remain Elevated

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Volume Index declined 3.3% last week (-2.3% y/y), following a 4.8% increase during the prior week. Purchase loan applications fell 2.1% (+5.2% y/y), after [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 04 2018

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Expansion Slows

  Business activity in the service sector moderated last month. The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) slipped to 58.8 during March from an unrevised 59.5 in February. It [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 04 2018

  U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Steadies

  The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 241,000 (1.9% y/y) during March following a 246,000 February gain, revised from 235,000. A 210,000 rise had been expected in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 03 2018

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Rebound

  Total sales of light vehicles increased 2.4% during March (3.9% y/y) to 17.48 million units (SAAR), following two months of decline, according to the Autodata Corporation. Despite the rebound, last month's sales remained below an [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 03 2018

  U.S. Energy Prices Move Higher

  Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.70 per gallon last week (14.4% y/y) and landed at the highest level since August 2015. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. The [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 02 2018

  U.S. Construction Spending Is Little Changed for Second Month

  The value of construction put-in-place improved 0.1% (3.7% y/y) during February following unrevised stability in January. A 0.4% rise in building activity had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Private sector [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 02 2018

  ISM Factory Sector Index Backs Away from 2004 High

  Strength in U.S. manufacturing activity eased slightly last month. The March ISM manufacturing sector composite index fell to 59.3 and reversed its February rise. It nevertheless remained near the highest level since May 2004. A level [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 29 2018

  Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Declines Sharply

  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for March fell to 57.4 following a decline to 61.9 in February. It was the lowest index level in twelve months and compared to December's peak of 67.8. Stability at 62.0 had been [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 29 2018

  U.S. Personal Income Growth Outpaces Spending

  As income growth remains firm, individuals are using the money to rebuild savings. Personal income rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) during February for the third consecutive month. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 28 2018

  U.S. Pending Home Sales Improve

  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 3.1% (-4.1% y/y) in February to an index level of 107.5 (2001=100). The gain followed a downwardly revised 5.0% January decline. Winter storms and a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 28 2018

  U.S. GDP Growth Revised Upward; Corporate Profits Decline

  In the third estimate of Q4'17 real GDP, the U.S. economy grew 2.9% (AR), more than 2.5% estimated in the second report and 2.6% in the advance estimate. It followed a 3.2% Q3 rise and a 3.1% Q2 gain. Growth picked up from Q4-to-Q4 to [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief