
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Continues; Sales Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y) during April following a 0.1% March slip. Total business sales rose 0.4% (6.7% y/y), following a 0.6% gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio held steady at 1.35. It peaked early in 2016 [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y) during April following a 0.1% March slip. Total business sales rose 0.4% (6.7% y/y), following a 0.6% gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio held steady at 1.35. It peaked early in 2016 at 1.43.
Retail inventories increased 0.5% (2.5% y/y) in April after a 0.7% decline during March. Auto inventories grew 0.7% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.9% fall. Non-auto retail inventories increased 0.4% (2.8% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. General merchandise inventories rose 0.8% (-0.6% y/y) after a 1.9% shortfall. In the department store sector, inventories edged 0.5% higher (-4.9% y/y) following a 1.2% drop. Building materials inventories gained 0.5% (5.7% y/y) after a 0.2% rise, while clothing store inventories rose 0.4% (0.6% y/y) after falling 0.6%. Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances declined 0.3% (+1.4% y/y), the fifth decline in seven months. As reported last week, wholesale inventories edged 0.1% higher (5.8% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. Factory sector inventories rose 0.3% (5.0% y/y) following a 0.2% gain.
Retail sales increased 0.4% in April (4.9% y/y) with non-auto sales up 0.5% (5.2% y/y). Wholesale sector sales increased 0.8% (7.8% y/y) after improving 0.4%. Shipments from the factory sector held steady (7.2% y/y) following a 0.7% rise.
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio in the retail sector held steady at 1.44 in April, down from the levels averaged during the prior two years. The non-auto I/S ratio held steady at 1.21 and remained near its lowest level since early-2012. The wholesale sector I/S ratio eased to 1.28, nearly its lowest level since December 2014. The manufacturing sector I/S ratio held steady at 1.35, its lowest point in three years.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Retail | 0.5 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
Manufacturing | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 6.7 | 5.8 | -0.8 | -3.4 |
Retail | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 7.8 | 7.4 | -1.3 | -4.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | -3.2 | -6.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.39 |
Retail | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.46 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.27 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
Manufacturing | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.39 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.