Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Feb 12 2019

  U.S. JOLTS: Finding Workers to Fill Job Openings Gets Harder

  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate increased to 4.7% during December and matched the record high. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 12 2019

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Continues to Deteriorate

  The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index declined to 101.2 during January, down for the fifth consecutive month. The index declined 3.1% m/m and it was 5.3% lower y/y. Six [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 08 2019

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve

  The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 3.0% during the last month, but remained 12.1% below the prior year's level. Gains were broad-based, but [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 07 2019

  U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Eases

  Consumer credit outstanding increased $16.54 billion (4.9% y/y) to $4.010 trillion during December following a $22.40 billion November rise, revised from $22.16 billion. A $17.5 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 07 2019

  U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline Sharply

  Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 234,000 in the week ended February 2 after a jump to an unrevised 253,000 during the prior week. The shortfall reversed nearly half of the previous week's increase to the highest level [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 06 2019

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Decline; Interest Rates Fall

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index fell 2.5% (-9.0% y/y) during the week ended February 1, about the same as during the prior two weeks. These declines followed sharp increases early [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 06 2019

  U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows As Oil Prices Fall

  The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services lessened to $49.31 during November from $55.70 billion in October, revised from $55.49 billion. A deficit of $54.0 billion had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 05 2019

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Declines Again

  The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell to 56.7 during January from December's 58.0, revised from 57.6. The index has been declining since a high of 60.8 in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 05 2019

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Hold Steady

  Retail gasoline prices of $2.25 per gallon last week (-14.5% y/y) were little changed from their end-of-year level. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. The seasonally- [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 04 2019

  U.S. Factory Orders and Shipments Fall

  Manufacturers' orders declined 0.6% (+4.1% y/y) during November following an unrevised 2.1% October fall. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 0.4% rise. Durable goods orders rebounded 0.7% m/m (5.3% y/y) after a 2.1% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 01 2019

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Decline

  Sales of light vehicles fell 4.8% (-2.8% y/y) during January to 16.70 million units (SAAR), the lowest level since August 2017. A 7.9% decline (-1.9% y/y) in light truck sales to 11.24 million units led the decline after a 0.7% gain [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 01 2019

  U.S. Employment Strengthens in January but Wage Growth Slips; Unemployment Rate Edges Higher

  The job market remains firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased 304,000 (1.9% y/y) during January, but December's gain was revised downward to 222,000 from 312,000 reported last month. November's increase was revised up slightly to 196,000 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief