Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Mar 13 2019

  U.S. Producer Prices Edge Higher With Energy Price Rise; Core Prices Firm

  The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index improved 0.1% during February (1.9% y/y) following three months of slight decline. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% increase. Producer prices excluding food & energy [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 12 2019

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Improves Slightly

  The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index increased to 101.7 during February following five consecutive months of decline. The index gained 0.5% m/m but was 5.5% lower y/y. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 12 2019

  U.S. CPI Strengthens But Core Price Gain Moderates

  The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%, as expected, during February following three consecutive months of holding steady. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 1.5% y/y increase was the weakest [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 11 2019

  U.S. Business Inventories Increase As Sales Decline

  Total business inventories rose 0.6% (4.9% y/y) during December after holding steady in November. Total business sales fell 1.0% (+1.9% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. The inventory-to-sales ratio increased to 1.38, its highest level [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 11 2019

  U.S. Retail Sales Edge Higher

  Consumers remain in a cautious mood. Total retail sales improved just 0.2% during January (+2.6% y/y) after pulling back spending by 1.6% in December, revised from -1.2%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 08 2019

  U.S. Employment Brakes Suddenly as Wages Accelerate; Jobless Rate Declines

  The job market during February was filled with contrary indications, some pertaining to the unwinding effects of the government shutdown in January, and some due to adverse weather conditions. Nonfarm payrolls increased 20,000 last [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 08 2019

  U.S. Employment Brakes Suddenly as Wages Accelerate; Jobless Rate Declines

  The job market during February was filled with contrary indications. Nonfarm payrolls increased 20,000 last month (1.7% y/y) following a 311,000 gain, revised from 304,000. December's increase was revised up slightly to 227,000 from [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 07 2019

  U.S. Productivity Growth Is Solid

  Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector grew 1.9% (SAAR) in Q4'18, an increase fairly stable with the Q3 gain. During the last four quarters, productivity growth picked up to 1.8%, the quickest rate of increase in three years. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 06 2019

  U.S. ADP Private-Sector Payroll Hiring Slows

  ADP indicated in its National Employment Report that private nonfarm payrolls increased 183,000 during February following a 300,000 January gain, revised from 213,000. It was the weakest increase in three months. A 190,000 gain had [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 05 2019

  U.S. Government Budget Surplus Shrinks With Tax Cut

  The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal government budget surplus of $8.7 billion during January compared to a $49.2 billion surplus during January 2018. A $6.0 billion surplus had been expected in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 05 2019

  U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Increase

  New home sales increased 3.7% to 621,000 during December following a November increase to 599,000, revised from 657,000. It was the highest level of sales in six months. During all of 2018, new home sales increased 0.9% to 621,000, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 05 2019

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Move Upward

  The retail price for gasoline rose to $2.42 per gallon last week (-5.4% y/y), the fourth consecutive week of increase. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. The seasonally- [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief