Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Mar 29 2019

  U.S. Personal Spending Growth Is Negligible; Incomes Rise Modestly

  Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.1% (3.7% y/y) during January following a 0.6% December decline, revised from -0.5%. The gain fell short of a 0.3% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Commerce [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 28 2019

  U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall

  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales declined 1.0% (-4.9% y/y) during February following a 4.3% gain, revised from 4.6%. Sales have declined 9.7% since the peak in April 2016. Sales were mixed [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 28 2019

  U.S. GDP Growth Is Revised Lower

  Economic growth was weaker than originally estimated at the end of last year. Real gross domestic product growth slowed to 2.2% in Q4'18, revised from 2.6%, following a 3.4% increase in Q3. The Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 27 2019

  U.S. Current Account Deficit Continues to Increase

  The U.S. current account deficit widened to $134.4 billion during Q4'18 from $126.6 billion in Q3. It remained the largest quarterly deficit since Q4 2008 and compared to $131.1 billion expected in the Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 27 2019

  U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows as Imports Fall

  The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services fell to $51.15 billion during January from $59.90 billion in December, revised from $59.77 billion. A deficit of $57.7 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 26 2019

  U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens Broadly

  The consumer has become wary about the current and future economic environment. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined 5.6% (-2.3% y/y) to 124.1 during March and reversed most of February's increase. The decline left [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 26 2019

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Increase Again

  U.S. retail gasoline prices rose this week to $2.62 per gallon (-0.9% y/y), continuing their upward trend from the low of $2.24 early in January. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 26 2019

  U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Decline

  New home building activity weakened last month. Total housing starts during February declined 8.7% (-9.9% y/y) to 1.162 million units (SAAR) from 1.273 million in January, revised from 1.230 million. December's level also was revised [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 25 2019

  Texas Factory Sector Growth Eases

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index backpedaled to 8.3 during March and reversed some of its February Improvement. The index remained well [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 25 2019

  NABE Projects Slower Growth and Stable Inflation

  The National Association for Business Economics expects 2.0% growth in real GDP during 2020 following 2.4% growth in 2019, revised from the prior forecast of 2.7%. Both growth rates are below the 2.9% advance in 2018. Quarterly growth [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 22 2019

  U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens

  The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government budget deficit for February of $234.0 billion compared to a $215.2 billion deficit one year earlier. A $227.0 billion shortfall had been expected in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 22 2019

  U.S. Existing Home Sales Strengthen

  The housing market recovered last month following a year's decline. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes jumped 11.8% (-1.8% y/y) during February to 5.510 million units (SAAR) from 4.930 million [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief