Consumers cut back on spending late in 2018, to the greatest degree since 2009. Total retail sales declined 1.2% (+2.3% y/y) during December following a 0.1% November uptick, revised from 0.2%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Feb 14 2019U.S. Retail Sales Exhibit Extensive Weakness
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 13 2019
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens As Tax Rates Fall
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $13.5 billion budget deficit during December 2018. The deficit compared to a shortfall of $23.2 billion during December 2017. The Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 13 2019
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications and Interest Rates Move Lower
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index fell 3.7% (-10.9% y/y) during the week ended February 8, about the same as it did during the prior three weeks. These declines followed sharp [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
The Consumer Price Index remained unchanged during January for the third consecutive month. The December figure was revised from -0.1%. Expectations had been for a 0.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 1.6% y/y [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 12 2019
U.S. JOLTS: Finding Workers to Fill Job Openings Gets Harder
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate increased to 4.7% during December and matched the record high. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 12 2019
U.S. Small Business Optimism Continues to Deteriorate
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index declined to 101.2 during January, down for the fifth consecutive month. The index declined 3.1% m/m and it was 5.3% lower y/y. Six [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 08 2019
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 3.0% during the last month, but remained 12.1% below the prior year's level. Gains were broad-based, but [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 07 2019
U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Eases
Consumer credit outstanding increased $16.54 billion (4.9% y/y) to $4.010 trillion during December following a $22.40 billion November rise, revised from $22.16 billion. A $17.5 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 07 2019
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline Sharply
Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 234,000 in the week ended February 2 after a jump to an unrevised 253,000 during the prior week. The shortfall reversed nearly half of the previous week's increase to the highest level [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 06 2019
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Decline; Interest Rates Fall
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index fell 2.5% (-9.0% y/y) during the week ended February 1, about the same as during the prior two weeks. These declines followed sharp increases early [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 06 2019
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows As Oil Prices Fall
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services lessened to $49.31 during November from $55.70 billion in October, revised from $55.49 billion. A deficit of $54.0 billion had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Feb 05 2019
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Declines Again
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell to 56.7 during January from December's 58.0, revised from 57.6. The index has been declining since a high of 60.8 in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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