Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| May 03 2019

  U.S. Payroll Gains Are Unexpectedly Strong; Jobless Rate Falls to 1969 Low

  The labor market remained robust during April. Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 189,000 March gain, revised from 196,000. February's rise was revised higher to 56,000. The April increase exceeded expectations [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 02 2019

  U.S. Factory Orders Rise as Durables Strengthen

  Manufacturers' orders surged 1.9% (2.0% y/y) during March following a 0.3% February decline, revised from -0.5%. A 1.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods rose 2.6% (2.1% y/y), [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 02 2019

  U.S. Productivity Growth Improves and Drives Unit Labor Cost Growth Lower

  Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector grew 3.6% (SAAR) during Q1'19 following a 1.3% gain in Q4'18, revised from 1.9%. It was the strongest increase since Q3'14. During the last four quarters, productivity growth picked up to [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2019

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Turn Sharply Downward

  The motor vehicle weakened significantly last month. The Autodata Corporation reported that sales of light vehicles during April declined 6.1% (-4.3% y/y) to 16.39 million units (SAAR). It reversed a 5.3% March increase and left sales [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2019

  FOMC Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

  The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously at today's meeting to leave the federal funds rate target in a range between 2.25% and 2.50%. The decision was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Fed stated that [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2019

  ISM Manufacturing Index Declines Sharply

  The ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 52.8 in April from 55.3 in March, making it the weakest reading since October 2016. The index remained below its expansion peak of 60.8 last August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2019

  U.S. ADP Private-Sector Payroll Gains Strengthen

  ADP indicated in its National Employment Report that private nonfarm payrolls increased 275,000 (2.1% y/y) during April following a 151,000 gain during March, revised from 129,000. The February increase also was revised up to 220,000 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2019

  U.S. Employment Cost Index Increases Steadily

  The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.7% in Q1'19 following a 0.7% Q4'18 gain. The riser matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The increase left y/y compensation growth at 2.9%, up from [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2019

  U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves

  The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index increased 4.0% (2.9% y/y) to 129.2 during April and reversed most of the March decline. The m/m rise exceeded expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey which [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2019

  U.S. Employment Cost Index Increases Steadily

  The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.7% in Q1'19 following a 0.7% Q4'18 gain. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The increase left y/y compensation growth at 2.8%, up from its [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2019

  U.S. Employment Cost Index Increases Steadily

  The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.7% in Q1'19 following a 0.7% Q4'18 gain. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The increase left y/y compensation growth at 2.8%, up from its [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2019

  U.S. Petroleum Prices Strengthen

  Retail gasoline prices increased five cents last week to $2.89 per gallon (1.4% y/y) after rising one penny during the prior week. It was the highest level since early-October. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief