Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Feb 06 2019

  U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows As Oil Prices Fall

  The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services lessened to $49.31 during November from $55.70 billion in October, revised from $55.49 billion. A deficit of $54.0 billion had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 05 2019

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Declines Again

  The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell to 56.7 during January from December's 58.0, revised from 57.6. The index has been declining since a high of 60.8 in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 05 2019

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Hold Steady

  Retail gasoline prices of $2.25 per gallon last week (-14.5% y/y) were little changed from their end-of-year level. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. The seasonally- [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 04 2019

  U.S. Factory Orders and Shipments Fall

  Manufacturers' orders declined 0.6% (+4.1% y/y) during November following an unrevised 2.1% October fall. The Action Economics Forecast survey looked for a 0.4% rise. Durable goods orders rebounded 0.7% m/m (5.3% y/y) after a 2.1% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 01 2019

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Decline

  Sales of light vehicles fell 4.8% (-2.8% y/y) during January to 16.70 million units (SAAR), the lowest level since August 2017. A 7.9% decline (-1.9% y/y) in light truck sales to 11.24 million units led the decline after a 0.7% gain [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 01 2019

  U.S. Employment Strengthens in January but Wage Growth Slips; Unemployment Rate Edges Higher

  The job market remains firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased 304,000 (1.9% y/y) during January, but December's gain was revised downward to 222,000 from 312,000 reported last month. November's increase was revised up slightly to 196,000 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 01 2019

  U.S. Employment Strengthens in January but Wage Growth Slips; Unemployment Rate Edges Higher

  The job market remains firm. Nonfarm payrolls increased 304,000 (1.9% y/y) during January, but December's gain was revised downward to 222,000 from 312,000 reported last month. November's increase was revised up slightly to 196,000 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 31 2019

  U.S. New Home Sales Improve as Prices Plummet

  The government shutdown delayed the report covering November new single-family home sales, but the information in the report is worthy of note. New home sales jumped 16.9% (-7.7% y/y) to 657,000 (SAAR) and recovered October's 8.3% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 31 2019

  U.S. Employment Costs Continue to Firm

  The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.7% in Q4 2018 following a 0.8% Q3 gain. A 0.8% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The gains combined to lift y/y compensation growth to 2.9%, the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 30 2019

  FOMC Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

  The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously at today's meeting to leave the federal funds rate target in a range between 2.25% and 2.50%. The action was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Fed indicated after [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 30 2019

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index fell 3.0% (-6.0% y/y) during the week ended January 25, about the same as during the prior week. These declines followed sharp increases early in the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 30 2019

  U.S. ADP Private-Sector Payroll Growth Is Surprisingly Firm

  ADP indicated in its National Employment Report that private nonfarm payrolls increased 213,000 during January (1.9% y/y) following a 263,000 December gain, revised from 271,000. Expectations had been for a 175,000 rise in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief