Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Feb 06 2020

  U.S. Productivity Grows As Unit Labor Cost Increase Slows in Q4

  Productivity in the nonfarm business sector during Q4'19 increased 1.4% (SAAR) following an unrevised 0.2% Q3 slip. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It raised productivity by 1.8% during the last [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 06 2020

  U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline Further

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 15,000 to 202,000 (-11.8% y/y) during the week ended February 1 from 217,000 in the prior week, revised from 216,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 initial claims. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 05 2020

  U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Strengthen With Lower Interest Rates

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index increased 5.0% during the week of January 31 and built on a 7.2% gain in the prior week. Applications to refinance a loan jumped 15.3% (182.5% y/y) and built on [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 05 2020

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Increases

  The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) increased to 55.5 during January from 54.9 in December, revised from 55.0. It was the highest level since August but remained below [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 05 2020

  U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Surge

  The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 291,000 (1.5% y/y) during January following a 199,000 December gain, revised from 202,000. It was the largest increase in roughly five years and [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 04 2020

  U.S. Factory Orders Rebound; Inventories Strengthen

  Factory orders increased 1.8% (-0.4% y/y) during December following a 1.2% November decline, revised from -0.7% m/m. A 1.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Durable goods orders surged 2.4% (-3.6% y/y, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 04 2020

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Weaken Further

  Retail gasoline prices fell to $2.46 per gallon (+8.9% y/y) in the week ended February 3 from $2.51 per gallon in the previous week. This was the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest price since March 2019. Haver Analytics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 04 2020

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Strengthen

  The Autodata Corporation reported that sales of light vehicles during January edged 1.1% higher (2.0% y/y) to 17.05 million units (SAAR) from 16.87 million in December. During the last three months, sales averaged 17.00 million units, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 03 2020

  ISM Manufacturing Index Jumps; Prices Strengthen

  Activity in the factory improved last month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its composite index of manufacturing sector activity for January rose to 50.9 after falling to 47.8 in December, revised from 47.2. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 31 2020

  U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Weakens Unexpectedly

  The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Business Barometer declined to 42.9 during January from 48.2 in December. It was the lowest level since December 2015. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 48.2. Readings back through 2017 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 31 2020

  U.S. Personal Spending & Income Gains Slow

  Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.3% (5.0% y/y) during December following an unrevised 0.4% November rise. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of 2019, consumer spending [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 30 2020

  U.S. GDP Growth Remains Moderate; Domestic Demand Weakens

  The U.S. economy grew 2.1% (SAAR) during the fourth quarter of 2019. That roughly equaled the growth during the prior two periods and left it at 2.3% for all of 2019. It was the weakest quarterly rate of growth since 2016 and met the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief