Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Dec 03 2019

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Are Mixed; Natural Gas Prices Ease

  Retail gasoline prices held steady last week at $2.58 per gallon (+5.1% y/y). Typically, gasoline prices weaken this time of year. After applying the seasonal factor constructed by Haver Analytics, gasoline prices increased to $2.69 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 02 2019

  U.S. Construction Spending Declines Again

  The value of construction put-in-place fell 0.8% (+1.1% y/y) during October following a 0.3% September decline, revised from +0.5%. August's 1.1% increase was revised from -0.3%. A 0.4% October rise had been expected in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 02 2019

  ISM Manufacturing Index Slips But Pricing Improves

  The ISM Manufacturing Diffusion Index eased to 48.1 during November after rising slightly to 48.3 in October. A reading of 49.1 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Since 2009, there has been a 71% correlation [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Nov 27 2019

  U.S. Personal Spending Increases As Income Steadies

  Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) during October after an unrevised 0.2% September rise. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In constant dollars, spending edged 0.1% higher [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Nov 27 2019

  U.S. GDP Growth Revised Up, but Corporate Profits Decline

  Economic growth during Q3'19 was revised higher to 2.1% (2.1% y/y) from the advance estimate of a 1.9% rise. An unrevised reading of 1.9% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The increase roughly matched the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Nov 26 2019

  U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines Further

  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for November eased 0.5% (-8.0% y/y) to 125.5 after a little-revised 0.2% October decline. It was the fifth decline in the last six months and left the confidence level 9.1% below its [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Nov 26 2019

  U.S. FHFA House Price Appreciation Picks Up

  The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Price Index increased 0.6% in September, following an unrevised 0.2% August increase. During the last twelve months, home prices improved 5.1%, a deceleration from last year's 6.7% full-year [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Nov 26 2019

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Costs Are Little Changed

  Retail gasoline prices eased to $2.58 per gallon last week (+1.6% y/y) from $2.59 in the previous week. Prices typically weaken this time of year. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the seasonal variation in gasoline [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Nov 25 2019

  Texas Factory Sector Activity and Pricing Power Diminish

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index of -1.3 during November compares to October's -5.1. It remained down sharply from the February 2018 high of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Nov 25 2019

  Chicago Fed National Activity Index Declines Again

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that its National Activity Index fell to -0.71 during October from an unrevised -0.45 in September. It was the lowest level in six months. The three-month moving average smoothes out [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Nov 22 2019

  Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Steadies; Expectations Improve

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing business activity remained below zero for the fifth consecutive month. During November, the index held steady at -3. The negative figures [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Nov 22 2019

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Trend Sideways

  Minimal pricing power in the factory sector continues. The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 0.5% during the last four weeks and 0.6% over the last [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief