Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Jul 02 2020

  U.S. Employment Continues to Increase in June, Lowering Jobless Rate

  • Rise in jobs is broad-based amongst industries. • Earnings weaken for second straight month. • Unemployment rate, though still double-digit, declines to three-month low. The job market improved again in June. Nonfarm payroll [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 02 2020

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Improve In June

  • Car & light truck sales continue to increase m/m, but remain off 23.7% y/y. • Auto sales rise more m/m than trucks. The Autodata Corporation reported that sales of light vehicles rose 8.1% last month (-23.7% y/y) to 13.15 million [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 01 2020

  ISM Manufacturing Index Surges in June

  • Composite Index moves above break-even for first time since February. • Component series improvement is widespread. • Price index rises sharply. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its Composite Index of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jul 01 2020

  U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls Rise 2.369 Million in June

  • Employment increased in May rather than declined. • June's gains are spread across industry sectors. The job market continued to expand last month. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private payrolls during [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 30 2020

  U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Increases in June

  • The rise is disappointing. • Component increases are broad-based. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer improved to 36.6 during June from 32.3 in May. Despite the increase, the figure remained below its high of 66.5 in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 30 2020

  U.S. Consumer Confidence Strengthens in June

  • The reading of current conditions increases sharply. • Expectations improve again. • All age groups feel better. Broad improvement in consumer confidence in June reflected re-opening of the economy and fewer claims for unemployment [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 30 2020

  U.S. Energy Product Prices Rise

  • Gasoline prices increase with seasonal demand. • Crude oil prices continue to improve. • Natural gas prices rise moderately. The price for regular gasoline rose to $2.17 per gallon (-19.9% y/y) in the week ended June 29 from $2.13 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 29 2020

  Texas Factory Sector Outlook Indicates Improvement in June

  • Component increases are broad-based. • Expectations also improve broadly. The Dallas Federal Reserve reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index increased to -6.1% from the near-record [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 29 2020

  U.S. Pending Home Sales Recover in May

  • Pending home sales rise to three-month high. • Improvement spread throughout the country. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales surged 44.3% during May to the highest level since February. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 26 2020

  U.S. Personal Spending Increase in May Sets Monthly Record; Income Declines

  • Spending rebound follows two sharp monthly declines. • Personal income drop reflects lessened government support. • Price inflation is minimal. Personal consumption expenditures increased 8.2% during May (-9.3% y/y) following [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 25 2020

  Kansas City Fed Factory Index Turns Positive in June; Component Improvement Is Broad-based

  • Midwest economic activity increases. • New orders and production lead gains this month. • Expectations rise as well. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its manufacturing business activity index increased to 1 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jun 25 2020

  U.S. GDP Decline in Q1'20 Is Unrevised; Corporate Profits Plunge

  • GDP shortfall continues to reflect widespread component decline. • Profits decline remains greatest since 2008. • All sectors decline, except housing. • Price inflation remains moderate. U.S. GDP declined an unrevised 5.0% (SAAR) [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief