Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Mar 11 2021

  U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Increases in January but Hiring Rate Declines

  • Both the job openings rate & the number of openings improve slightly. • Hiring activity continues to weaken. • Layoffs & quits ease. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of January, the total job [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 11 2021

  U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply

  • Initial claims fall to lowest level in four months. • Continuing claims also post sharp decline. • Insured jobless rate drops again. The job market continues to exhibit signs of healing. Initial claims for unemployment insurance [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 10 2021

  U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens in February

  • Coronavirus relief drives spending. • Revenues begin to rise with economy. U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $310.9 billion during February compared to a deficit of $235.3 billion one year earlier. The [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 10 2021

  U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline, Paced by Fewer Refinancings

  • Refinancing applications decline as mortgage interest rates move higher. • Purchase applications continue to strengthen. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index declined 1.3% (-32.3% y/y) in the week ended [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 10 2021

  U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Firms in February; Core Prices Tame

  • Energy prices again are strong. • Services prices heat up. • Core goods prices decline. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% (1.7% y/y) during February following an unrevised 0.3% January increase. The gain matched expectations in the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 09 2021

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Index Improves in February; Prices Surge

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism reverses January decline. • Economic worries about sales and the economy persist. • Pricing power strengthens to highest level since 2008. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 09 2021

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Surge

  • Gasoline prices jump to 2019 high. • Oil prices are little-changed w/w but jumped yesterday. • Natural gas prices weaken further. The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.77 per gallon (16.7% y/y) in the week ended March 8, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 08 2021

  U.S. Wholesale Inventory Accumulation Picks Up While Sales Surge in January

  • Wholesale inventory accumulation is broad-based. • Unexpected jump in sales lowers I/S ratio. Activity in the wholesale sector is strengthening. Wholesale inventories surged 1.3% during January (0.6% y/y) following a 0.6% December [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 05 2021

  U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Declines in January

  • Credit card borrowing continues to retreat. • Nonrevolving credit usage slows further. Consumers reduced credit balances further in January. Consumer credit outstanding fell a seasonally adjusted $1.3 billion (-0.3% y/y) during [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 05 2021

  U.S. Payrolls Surge in February and Jobless Rate Slips

  • Leisure & hospitality drives gain in jobs. • Earnings growth remains moderate m/m. • Unemployment rate declines to lowest level since March 2020. As the economy began to reopen more widely after closures due to COVID-19, the job [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 05 2021

  U.S. Payrolls Surge in February and Jobless Rate Slips

  • Leisure & hospitality drives gain in jobs. • Earnings growth remains moderate m/m. • Unemployment rate declines to lowest level since March 2020. As the economy began to reopen more widely after closures due to COVID-19, the job [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 04 2021

  U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Rise Again in January

  • Gain in factory orders driven by durable goods. • Shipments continue to strengthen. • Order backlogs & inventories edge higher. Manufacturing activity is strengthening. Factory orders rose 2.6% (2.8% y/y) in January after improving [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief