• Decline follows an early-spring surge and stimulus checks. • Sales weakness is broad-based. • April & March readings were upwardly revised. Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments declined 1.3% during [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Jun 15 2021U.S. Retail Sales Weaken in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 15 2021
U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Strengthen
• Gasoline prices reach seven-year high. • Crude oil prices climb to highest level since October 2018. • Natural gas prices improve further. Retail gasoline prices rose to $3.07 per gallon (46.3% y/y) in the week ended June 14 from [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 14 2021
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Take a Breather
• Framing lumber prices retreat after extraordinary gains. • Metals prices soften. • Prospects for prices remain good. The Industrial Materials Price Index, from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER), [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 10 2021
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Surges in FY'21
• May budget deficit falls short of expectations. • Tax receipts improve with economic growth. • Income-security outlays continue to climb. The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $2.064 trillion for the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 10 2021
U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Picks Up in May
• Annual increase is strongest since August 2008. • Core goods & services prices remain strong. • Food prices are firm, but energy prices hold steady. Price inflation at the retail level is firm. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 09 2021
U.S. Wholesale Sales and Inventories Rise in Tandem During April
• Strength in inventories is broad-based. • Sales improvement follows March surge. • I/S ratio holds steady. Wholesale inventories increased 0.8% during April (5.2% y/y) following a 1.2% March increase, revised from 1.3%. The latest [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 09 2021
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue Lower
• Refinancing applications fall sharply, purchases edge higher. • Mortgage interest rates ease slightly. • Applications influenced by late holiday. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index fell 3.1% (-25.7% y/y) in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 08 2021
U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate & Level Surge to Records During April
• Job openings rate strengthens across industries. • Hiring rate holds steady. • Layoffs decline while quits increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of April, the level of job openings rose to a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 08 2021
U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Eases in May
• Slip follows three months of increase. • Components are mixed. • Pricing power continues to strengthen. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose slipped to 99.6 [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 07 2021
U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Remains Steady During April
• Nonrevolving credit usage continues strong. • Revolving credit balances decline. Consumer credit outstanding grew $18.6 billon during April, the same as in March, revised from $25.8 billion. February's increase was revised to $18.2 [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 04 2021
U.S. Payroll Gain Disappoints; Earnings Firm as Jobless Rate Declines
• Factory sector jobs improve but construction jobs fall. • Average hourly earnings are unexpectedly strong. • Unemployment rate moves sharply lower. As more individuals receive the COVID-19 vaccination and restrictions on businesses [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 04 2021
U.S. Payroll Gain Disappoints; Earnings Firm as Jobless Rate Declines
• Factory sector jobs improve but construction jobs fall. • Average hourly earnings are unexpectedly strong. • Unemployment rate moves sharply lower. As more individuals receive the COVID-19 vaccination and restrictions on businesses [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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