U.S. Retail Sales Are Restrained As Gas Prices Surge in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Individual categories show mixed results.
- Vehicle sales improve.
- Online sales weaken.
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments improved 0.3% in February (17.6% y/y) after surging 4.9% in January, revised from 3.8%. A 0.4% sales increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts edged 0.2% higher last month (17.7% y/y) following a 4.4% January jump, revised from 3.3%. Expectations had been for a 0.8% increase.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials and food services, declined 1.2% in February (+12.9% y/y) after rising 6.7% in January, revised from 4.8%.
Reflecting higher prices, gasoline service station sales surged 5.3% (36.4% y/y) after falling 1.7% in January. Gasoline prices rose 6.6% last month (38.0% y/y) as indicated in last week's CPI report.
The weakness in retail sales last month reflected a 3.7% decline (+13.8% y/y) in purchases via the internet after they strengthened 20.6% in January. Furniture & home furnishing store sales weakened 1.0% (+7.4% y/y) after increasing 7.5% in January. Electronics & appliance store sales eased 0.6% (+2.6% y/y) following a 2.1% jump. General merchandise store sales slipped 0.2% last month (+12.8% y/y) after a 4.5% January strengthening. Within that category, department store sales improved 1.6% (22.8% y/y) in February after a 9.8% surge in January.
To the upside, motor vehicle sales rose 0.8% (17.2% y/y) in February after strengthening 6.9% in January. Unit motor vehicle sales, however, fell 6.9% last month (-12.3% y/y) after rising 19.6% in January. Sporting goods, hobby and book store sales rose 1.7% (11.7% y/y) last month after a 1.3% decline. Apparel & accessory store sales improved 1.1% (30.6% y/y) after increasing 1.4% in January. Building materials & garden equipment sales rose 0.9% in February (14.8% y/y) after a 2.7% January rise.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales fell 0.5% (+7.9% y/y) during February after rising 1.0% in January. Health & personal care store sales declined 1.8% (+8.9% y/y) after improving 0.2% in January.
Sales at restaurants & drinking establishments strengthened 2.5% in February (33.0% y/y) after falling in three of the prior four months.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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